Thanks, UB.

Today's selections ($999)

Newcastle
4/14, 15
5/14

Sandown
5/12

Eagle Farm
1/20
4/3
5/12

Gawler
3/7, 10, 11
5/2

Ascot
1/16
7/14
8/5, 16, 17

looking good so far today.

Yes, UB.

With two more races to go it's a touch over $185 in profit.

A good day - from the 16 selections there were 16 smiles for a profit of $206.16.

Michael, can you check this please
 

2441 - 2396 = 45 losses Therefore 45 x 999 = $44955 loss. Add to this the $13000 nett profit you made over and above this loss = $57955 nett turnover. Divide this by 2396 smiles = $24.18 nett profit per bet ($999 liability) Add commission to that as I assume your $13000 profit was after commission = $25.86 . Average odds then 39:1.
Your average return per bet of $24.18/$999 is markedly more than the Speed-E-Ficiary system return of $18.06(as of yesterday).
That's excellent!
Cheers RP

Thanks, RP.

Because of the interest you've now created I've double-checked the results.

Laying for a $33 liability there have been (including the five days of testing period) 1674 selections for 1706 smiles for a profit of $431. If layed for the current $999 liability then the profit would have been approximately $13,000.

Laying for a $333 liability there have been 755 selections for 739 smiles for a profit of $2,040. If layed for the current $999 liability then the profit would have been approximately $6,000.

Laying for a $999 liability there have been 137 selections for 134 smiles for a loss of $690.

I must admit there was a close-call yesterday with Newcastle 6/12. The filter that prevented it from becoming an accident was that it was equal-fourth in the Unitab rankings.

Too Good MG
 

From the revised figures, if you started with a $999 liability on the 7th Dec till now (3 month anniversary today!) you would have made $18,478 profit! Well done.
Cheers RP

Thanks, RP. If from day one the current filters had been applied I hope/expect the profit could have been better.

Today's selections ($999):

Wyong
5/3, 4, 16

Ballarat
1/8, 10
2/1, 4, 5
3/5

Beaudesert
1/14
3/7, 11
5/6, 9, 15, 17
7/8

Bordertown
3/11, 12
5/4
6/12

Pinjarra
1/2, 3, 8
4/4, 8, 9
5/3, 4, 5, 12
9/10

T,C,D,W filters
 

Hi Michaelg,

I had an idea that it may be prudent (when you have a spere few hours/a day) to go over all selections with T,C,D,W in their form line.

I was thinking that even though they cause more accidents, it doesn't matter so long as they're losing at level stakes when laying.

TheSchmile.

I did look at this at around the time you originally suggested these Form Filters. I did not persue it so I have to assume the filter was worthwhile, and I am also under the impression it increased the strike rate.

A good day - from the 31 selections there were 31 smiles for an excellent profit of $586.92.

Another great result
 

Another great day MG . Were you able to place a bet on Pinjarra R4? Bet fair seemed to freeze up at my end showing only $93 traded.
Where to next? Are you going to retire gracefully like Speedy and just let the profits roll in?
All the best RP

Hi, RP.

There were some problems with Betfair yesterday but fortunately I was able to get all my bets on.

In spite of the good profit of $1,429 over the past four days the method hasn't recouped Sunday's loss of $2,118. Hopefully it's just a matter of time.

I'll continue with the method providing it doesn't crash.

Today's selections:

Taree
1/2, 10, 11
2/13
3/15
5/10
6/12

Sapphire Coast
2/5

Cranbourne
2/9
3/13
4/7

Ipswich
2/4, 13
8/19

Albany
1/2
2/7
6/1
7/6, 12

Canterbury
5/10

Due to an unforseen problem I wasn't able to look at Stawell earlier. There is one selection there today:

Stawell
6/12

A bad day - there was one accident from the 20 selections for a loss of $624.41.

Today's selections:

Dombeen
8/5, 7

Newcastle
1/4
2/6, 7, 10
4/14

Echuca
2/7
3/9, 10, 11
7/9

Grafton
2/3, 8
4/11
5/13, 14
6/8
7/1

Kyneton
3/2, 5, 7

Toowoomba
1/6, 12
2/8
7/8

Ascot
4/6
5/7
6/7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16

Another losing day. There was one accident from the 29 selections for a loss of $116.46.

There's been 9 days since increasing the liability to $999, 3 of them have been losing days although the strike rate of 98% has been maintained.

Today's selections:

Canberra
1/17
8/15

Stony Creek
2/5, 7, 8, 12, 13
3/5, 11

Corowa
3/3, 11
8/1

Sun Coast
7/5, 9
8/5

Clare
6/4

Echuca
2/8
4/6
7/10, 11, 12
8/14

Hobart
3/12
7/11

Bunbury
4/11
5/12
8/2
9/10

michael,

Just a thought but wouldn't it always be better to increase your stake after a losing run rather then a winning run ? You obviously raised the stakes after a particularly good run and the inevitability of averages comes along and hits you with a few losses.

Im not saying you should increase your stake after losses, just when you feel that you want to raise your stake then you should wait for the losing run (could be 1 loser, or more then 1 but that is up to you) and then start your increased stake. That way the law of averages is working with your increased stake rather then against it.

Don't think so UB
 

It actually is irrelevant UB. The time to up the ante is when you know you have a winning system.

UB.

I don't think I've mentioned it but I often increase the size of the bet after striking a loser if I'm at my computer. I've got no method to the size of the increase, just a gut feeling.

On Friday the method lost over $600 but with increased laying I won about $300, however it's nerve-racking, and yesterday I lost over $100 but ended up over $100 in profit. I have to tell myself that after about 3,000 selections the method is showing a healthy profit with a 98% strike rate, so that I don't feel too bad when increasing the bet size. Of course chasing losers could be a method-killer.

It might be small in the long term, but pschologically I find it better to do it this way. Of course as you said if you do not have a winning system then there is no point uping the ante.

Yes, I understand your point UB.

A good day - from the 27 selections there were 27 smiles for a profit of $397.65.

Today's selections:


Gosford
3/10,16

Orange
1/7, 11
2/8, 9, 10
3/14
4/1, 8
5/5, 6, 13

Morphetville
7/14

A losing day - there was one accident from the 14 selections for a loss of $861.68.

Whenever I'm about to regain the existing loss, up pops another accident and puts the method back into the red.

Today's selections:

Mackay
8/9

Muswellbrook
5/2
4/1,, 2, 5, 6, 11, ,12, 14

Coffs
2/9, 10,
3/4
4/9
6/12
7/17

Terang
4/5

I am reducing the liability to $333 just as a precaution in case reality is finally catching up with the method.

The 16 selections became 16 smiles for a profit of $165.90.

Today's selections:

Sale
3/12, 13

Dombeen
1/3
5/3, 12

Narrogin
2/9
4/11

Launceston
2/7
3/3

Strathalbyn
5/7, 8, 9

Today's 12 selections became 12 smiles for a profit of $37.79.

Today's selections:

Wyong
4/3, 8

Sun Coast
3/3
5/7
7/7
8/11, 12

Bunbury
4/10
5/2, 8, 10, 11, 14, 15
6/9

Ballarat
5/8

I'm halting this method for the time being because it is too clumsy and cumbersome to identify the few daily selections even though it's in a healthy profit. If I get the urge I'll revive it.

I'm considering laying another method where the selection is priced at $40 or less. I've been doing it on and off for a few months and have a 100% strike rate and also close to a similar s/rate when for laying for a Place. My only problem is I've got to be at my computer.