Pretty easy KV,

That is saying their is a 1 in 40 chance your system could drop 25.4% POT from it's current POT, whatever your POT, as a general guide.

Now sub the green 28 (in the middle) with green 22.9.
It should now say that your system of 18% SR after 400 bets could
possibly be 20.7% POT worse off than what it is, this is a 1 in 20 chance
(or 5% chance) of happening.

Again, sub the 28 with the green 17.4.
Now with fair accuracy you system (18% SR, 400 bets) could fall 15.8% POT
from it's current POT, this is a 10% chance of happening.

Personally, I'll stick with the 17.4, so if my system has had 500 bets,
20% S/R, 39% POT then there is a 10% chance my system may fall to
a permanent POT% of 26.2%. Of course call fall lower, less chance though.

But with the table above I would know that my system has a better than even chance (actually 40% chance ) of permanently hovering around the 31 - 47% POT range.

Kapiche, it's just a guide. That is all.

Appreciate the guidance fellahs. I like to think I'm in the too lazy to work it out category it sit's better than the too thick to understand it one. I've had a recent downturn in fortune which will test it to it's limits, as soon as my blood alchohol level get's back below .05 I'll try it out.

KV

Hi Sahasastar,
I think what you may find is that your SR may be stable over time ,but your average div will fluctuate , month to month .
This is what I found with my systems grouped together, all 100 of them .

I feel it almost imperitive to use one of the best TOTE bookies .e.g. Dialabet best of 3,IAS best of 2 , so as to maximise the POT (profit on turnover).

I found the odd month that had the normall average SR but the divs were realy low for some reason which ment I broke even instead of a profit of 20% if betting with an online bookie.

Check it out.

Cheers.