OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

Page 2 of 6

Show 40 posts from this thread on one page

OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)

- Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)

- - Favs and losing runs (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23183)

UselessBettor

7th January 2012 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by woof43

Until you have classified how each Favourite became the public favourite (by a variable or combo of two) and then the strength of "gap" between the 2nd Fav. basically you will never know.

But to answer your question wagering bias does occur but not how your thinking.

Best tip
Start handicapping your fellow punter not the horses. In wagering there are only a few strong variables at play

Joe Public will play those types (per variable and gap strength) of favourites over and over the same way day in day out.

What a very insightful post. Woof43 could you elaborate a bit. This is something I never ever thought of (I guess in a round about way maybe).
Can you give an example of a race and the variables one should use? How do you rate your fellow punters (overbets, underbets) ? Any insight would be very interesting.

norisk

7th January 2012 04:45 PM

seconded

Bhagwan

8th January 2012 04:25 AM

The stats show that the average price of the Fav in the 8th race is higher than

the 1st race & corresponding races there after, on the day.

One would approx break even targeting the Fav on the last race betting level stakes.
The SR is approx 24%, yet its av price is around $4.00 mark.

This 24% SR on the 8th race is a lot lower than say race No.1 onwards

The average price increases on a sliding scale from races 1-8.
and its SR drops from races 1-8 correspondingly.

The Ocho

8th January 2012 08:53 AM

I've tried to look all over the place (and I know I should know this :rolleyes: ) but what is the generally accepted statistic/strike rate of faves for both the win and the place?

I thought it was 33% and 66% but then some have said 30% win. I still don't know the place percentage though.

Any one know?

Thanks.

Bhagwan

8th January 2012 10:20 AM

Approx 64% for the place where there are not dual favs

The Ocho

8th January 2012 11:31 AM

Thanks Bhagwan :)

Chrome Prince

8th January 2012 12:20 PM

Here's a breakdown win and place % for favourites by race and Win POT %.

Code:


Race 1 35.95% 66.71% -13.73%
Race 2 33.95% 65.12% -13.86%
Race 3 33.56% 64.40% -11.86%
Race 4 31.94% 62.97% -13.72%
Race 5 30.96% 61.89% -13.39%
Race 6 30.15% 60.57% -12.23%
Race 7 28.20% 58.86% -14.95%
Race 8 27.73% 57.83% -14.10%
Race 9 26.73% 56.67% -15.33%
Race 10 26.36% 56.33% -12.85%

All Races 31.54% 62.27% -13.50% 

*12 years Metropolitan, Country and Provincial data.

The Ocho

8th January 2012 01:00 PM

Thanks CP. The faves sure do head downhill strike rate wise in the later races however, as said in the thread, the prices may then rise to compensate?

Mark	8th January 2012 02:13 PM

All been done before and is very useful to know, but will the majority put this knowledge to use?

darkydog2002

8th January 2012 02:26 PM

I,ll hazard a guess and say NO.

All times are GMT +10. The time now is 02:51 AM.

Page 2 of 6

Show 40 posts from this thread on one page