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-   -   Using tipsters (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23187)

Travolta 11th January 2012 08:33 PM
yeah it is a bit difficult now because they only give you the top 50. I have had an account for quite some time, so have an idea of some tipsters that are down the bottom end... but having said that, if a tipster is making a 15% LOT over 3-12 months, you can lay him and win can't you?? or is this too easy?

UselessBettor 11th January 2012 08:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travolta
yeah it is a bit difficult now because they only give you the top 50. I have had an account for quite some time, so have an idea of some tipsters that are down the bottom end... but having said that, if a tipster is making a 15% LOT over 3-12 months, you can lay him and win can't you?? or is this too easy?

I would say it depends on the odds. I wish I could see those lower. 50 is just not enough to see on the ladder. I would love to see those at -20% or worse.

Travolta 11th January 2012 08:48 PM
I think you may have misunderstood UB, the odds (based on NSW TAB prices) are already considered/calculated which is how they come up with profit or loss data (see "performance" tab for any tipster). I was talking about 15% Loss on Turnover, not 15% win strike rate.

I assume that if a tipster is consistently tipping at a yearly LOT of 15% at NSW TAB odds, that you could lay his picks with a staking plan and make a profit???

...and if you could then add a couple of filters by looking at his last 5 months results and seeing where he is least successful (state of track, specific tracks, distance range etc..???).

UselessBettor 12th January 2012 05:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travolta
I think you may have misunderstood UB, the odds (based on NSW TAB prices) are already considered/calculated which is how they come up with profit or loss data (see "performance" tab for any tipster). I was talking about 15% Loss on Turnover, not 15% win strike rate.

I assume that if a tipster is consistently tipping at a yearly LOT of 15% at NSW TAB odds, that you could lay his picks with a staking plan and make a profit???

...and if you could then add a couple of filters by looking at his last 5 months results and seeing where he is least successful (state of track, specific tracks, distance range etc..???).

I mean the betfair odds. you can't assume betfair is less then 15% above the tipster selections. It all depends on what thos betfair odds are becuase if they are 20% higher then the tab for those selecitons then you will lose long term.

Travolta 12th January 2012 08:24 PM
yep, good point, does anyone have any info that compares TAB price to betfair SP? I would think that under $5 or so it would be pretty close, but reckon over that the betfair prices would have an advantage.

UselessBettor 12th January 2012 09:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travolta
yep, good point, does anyone have any info that compares TAB price to betfair SP? I would think that under $5 or so it would be pretty close, but reckon over that the betfair prices would have an advantage.
My experience is that it varies. Sometimes you find over 20% or 30% on those under $5 and sometimes you find it a negative %. It really depends on the selections and there is no one size fits all. Even over $5 it can vary greatly.

My suggestion is to get the Betfair advantage tool and check the prices of the selections each day and check it real time and make sure you take into account commission prices of 5% properly. Do it on every selection not on the total. but thats been discussed here before.


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