That's a nice response Try Try Again ..... I nearly got through the day without making a pest of myself !! :)

10 days in and all is good!

1st fav...+$75.9...Outlay $93...POT % 81.6%
2nd fav...+65.9...Outlay $158...POT % 41.7%
3rd fav...+64.3...Outlat $379...POT % 17.0%

After 10 days overall profit is $206.10 at 32.7% POT

Obviously a POT % of greater than 32% is not sustainable but the profit is looking healthy.

Comments?

I don't know what you're doing or how your doing it but well done. Good job!

Is this a loss chasing thing though?

Thanks for the reply TO,

Is it loss chasing - yes to some extent.

If we are upto bet 54 and the bank is $42 and the opening price is $3 then the bet to be made is ($54-$42)/$3 = $4. If the horse wins but only pays $3.50, then we have only returned $10.50 of the $12 hence our next aim is ($12-$10.50) = $1.50 + $1 = $2.50 (the added $1 is because we are upto bet 55).

If the horse pays $5 then we now have $42 + $20 = $62 in bank and we will stay at $1 bets until bank falls below the bet level.

I have chosen the 1st 3 opening favs as the likelihood of hitting a winner in the 3 is >60% (someone may be able to give a more detailed expected theoretical strike rate).
As I have said previously using the opening price gives us an edge as in most races we would expect the winners price to be greater (and sometimes much greater than the opening price).

Most bets are only at the $1 level.

Okay thanks for that TTA.

Hi TO,

I made some simple mistakes in my explanation (too tired last night when I put it together!).

Obviously the bet amount needs to be deducted from the return. So it should read if we bet $4 @$3.50 we collect $14 (less the $4 bet) so we win $10. Our bank would be $42 + $10 = $52, but as we are now up to bet 55 our next aim would be 55 - 52 = $3.

Hi TTA,

So when your talking 'bank' your actually talking profit since starting, as obviously you can't have a $0 bank when you started the exercise at bet no. 1.

So essentially you could start this with say a $200 bank and your aiming to make $1 profit per bet correct? and if you fail then your next bet aims to make $2 profit until you've reached your profit goal and you scale back to needed $1 profit again.

To me that is exactly a chase system unless i'm reading it wrong. I like the concept and betting for $1 profit means it would take a significant run of outs to blow up the bank especially when using favourites but i'm still not a fan of loss chasing.

Hi Evajb001,

You are correct, you will need a bank to start betting - obvious I guess.

When I say the bank is now $42 this is profit.

After 10 days we have had 200 bets and the profit is $206.10 so we are ahead of our aim to make $1 on every bet. We have outlaid $630 to achieve our aim to win $1 per bet.

May I ask what the largest bet you've had to do so far is and also what was the largest gap you've had between your profit level and bet number.

(Hope the above questions make sense - if not I can explain further).

Thanks

Hi Evajb001,

You certainly can ask! That's what the forum is for - sharing of information.

As I only started this from 1st January it is very early days with the Favourite performing above expectation.

The biggest bet so far was $49 on 3rd favourite at bet 22 aim was $192.30 (there had only been one small winner $2.70 at bet 14).

The biggest bet on 2nd favourite has been $11 with an aim of $53.40

The biggest bet on the favourite has been $5 with an aim of $8.90 (horse's opening price was $1.80)

Fav S/R........ 37.3% (longest losing run is 5, currently 1)
2nd Fav S/R.. 17.9% (longest losing run is 14, currently 2)
3rd Fav S/R... 13.6% (longest losing run is 15, currently 0)