OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

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OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)

- Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)

- - Lay the LSW Fav (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=27313)

partypooper

8th October 2013 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rinconpaul

You're right Darky, but you need to Lay favourites for a min average price of $3.20 to break even by my rough maths. If you could Lay them for the average Tote price you could make a profit but Betfairs SP/Lay price is nearly always greater, then less the 6.5% commish, you don't stand a chance, otherwise we'd all be doing it. The other alternative is to increase the strike rate to 84% as they quote. Good if it's true?

Interesting, I wonder though do you have any stats if ONLY the favs @$3.20 + are layed?

beton

8th October 2013 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by partypooper

Interesting, I wonder though do you have any stats if ONLY the favs @$3.20 + are layed?

Now you are pushing the envelop. This requires someone like UB or CP with a relative database. Betselector won't do it.

UselessBettor

8th October 2013 09:22 PM

I can do it but probably not for a few days. I have a couple of other projects I am working on.

UselessBettor

8th October 2013 09:38 PM

it got the better of me so I ran it :

It shows an 11% loss laying the fav based on the original rules.

UselessBettor

8th October 2013 09:41 PM

in fact swap the rule of laying to backing and you make a 2% profit after commission.

UselessBettor

8th October 2013 09:48 PM

Started playing around with the rules:

BACK THE FAV THAT MEETS THE FOLLOWING
LSW
FAV
=>10 Runners
Not Heavy
Age 3 to 7.
Barrier >= 10

Profit of 11.98%

SpeedyBen

8th October 2013 10:05 PM

UK summary of the rules - shows a back profit

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
All Selections	488	131	26.8%	103.7%

beton

8th October 2013 10:39 PM

Just goes to show that some of the claims you get bombarded with on a constant basis are not worth the paper they are written on. Barrier =>10 shows that if you in form then you can get across quick enough to negate the draw

SpeedyBen

9th October 2013 03:13 AM

Beton
I think the UK have standardized on barriers now but until recently each course decided which side barrier 1 would be on. With so many straight races sometimes the low numbers are better and sometimes not. On some big race meetings all winners on the day come from the same side of the draw. I would think that unlikely unless there is a bias of some sort - going, wind, drainage et al. It's a dog's breakfast.

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