Thanks for the advice.

So you have tried this? Why would you say not to?

Why Horse 5 as against horse 4 or 6?

Forget all the stats and back data - unless you have an edge, in the long term you will get the market loss.
i.e probably around 15% POT.

Just picking number 5 is not an edge.

Much easier to make money arbing from over generous corporate bookmaker fixed prices - you can lay on BF and back on corporate.

LOL

I found it had less wins overall compared to horse 1-4 and 6. By quite a lot, but i've only looked at dec/jan.

Wont hold up Pat, it all evens out over time. End of the day, what is a horse number? Just a ranking of one description or another.

you are confusing correlation with causation.

association v cause and effect ?

LG

yeah that's it.

Just because 2 things happen together i.e. a few short term winners from #5 for example doesn't mean that you can deduct that #5 saddle cloth = winners.

Many lightweight simplistic analysts tend to jump on these conclusions.

Now there's an example of a causation for ya !

cheers

aussie