OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - Yet another system for someone to test...

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Sorry crash but you are confusing me. Might be best for me to wait for Bhagwan to reply.

Cheers,
Blocka.

Quote:

Originally Posted by blocka

Hi would really appreciate if someone could test the following system for me.

Rules:
1. The horse must have the highest win strike race in the race.
2. Must have finished 4th or worse at its last start, but not beaten by more than 4 lengths.
3. Must have barrier 7 or wider

If possible please do seperate results for country/provincial/metro as i think this works better on country and provincials than metro.
Thanks in advance for your help. There may be some more refining rules to come.

Not too many selections, but based on the last 12 months metro races on Saturdays only:

WIN PLACE
S.R./Race : 21.6% 51.4%
% P.O.T. : -24.6% -18.1%

Blocka, sorry to confuse.

A horse with a 100% place rate [would be a very young horse], would have a shockingly short starting price and a system based on that rule would be worthless.

Blocka, for the same reason you have last start finished 4th or worse, to try and get some value into selections.

Hi Blocka,
My data base can do margins.
I found the 4th last start without the margin rule to be more profitable in this particular exercise.

The place percentage refers to 1st,2nd,3rds.
The 5-49% was where the value was , admittedly I shoehorned the stats that were in front of me to create a profit at that point in time .

It probable shows a profit because it is a professional winner & not a professional place getter
Maybe this 49% rule should be scrapped. But that is where the value was.
Those results could change the following year , that`s the frustrating bit of system analysis.

The figures showed that higher the place SR the lower the dividend.
.

Crash has some valid points about system testing ,which I agree with.
Especially the 70% & 30% of the data base.
The margins makes for a logical argument but getting the value is another.
The plan pulled a number of double digit prices so it has some merit.
Why it works best at provincial rather than Country & Metro ,is a mystery to me , but thats how the stats fell.

The original stats I have shown had the margin left out because it did not show a profit, that was the only change to the original result of that +663 result which equated to approx 25% POT

Going on Bagman's original 17% SR for this system you can expect from 1000 bets with a 99.99% probability chance:

26 runs of 10 outs [26 lots of 10 looses in a row].
10 runs of 15 outs.
4 runs of 20 outs.

These are a spread example of everything in between.

Blocka

Did you take the tip. The Big Ask today. Best win strike rate and best average prizemoney in the race. Home He comes.
Good Punting