OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)
-   Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)
-   -   Advice required : Am I testing my system correctly? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=10927)

jfc 18th September 2005 08:07 AM

I agree with many of the responses, but here are some new (along with repeated) thoughts:

A single-source POT of 21% for such a high strike rate is impossible long term. The practical holy grail is 10%.

Use the number of winners rather than number of runs to guide your confidence in the results.

An average system with a 10% strike rate and 2,000 runs would yield 200 wins.

Your sample has 213 wins and therefore is probably just as accurate as that 2,000 run test.

So take it out for a run now. The sooner you get real life lessons, the better.

There is only one optimum money management formula, the Kelly Criterion. Unfortunately it's abstract.

So you have to estimate the parameters of Edge/Odds.

Your (fractional) odds are ~6/4.

And your expected Edge should be no more than 10%.

Therefore bet no more than a diabolical 6.66% (=10/(6/4)) of your Bank.

That's a general rule of thumb, and some may find that high % contentious.

Dale 19th September 2005 12:36 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc
Use the number of winners rather than number of runs to guide your confidence in the results.

An average system with a 10% strike rate and 2,000 runs would yield 200 wins.

Your sample has 213 wins and therefore is probably just as accurate as that 2,000 run test.



I agree,

Someone suggested a test of 3 times 150 consecutive races,that is all well and good for a system that has a high strike rate but it is unreliable if the system only provided 15 winners or so in a 150 race stretch.

A better idea would be 3 consecutive tests of 35 to 40 winners.

Wesmip has enough data to start having a crack,aslong as he hasnt unwittingly backfitted the results all should well.

Dale 19th September 2005 12:44 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
Dale and all, just my 2cents worth, we all know there is some truth in what Giutar says as we have all had the system that works only to fall in a hole.

Conversly I feel that some so called system rules are PROVEN commonsense and NOT anomalies such as 30% of favs win (stats going back to the 1800's) of course that means that 70% don't. But also 70-80% of all handicaps are won by one of the top six. Horses racing within 21 days have a much better strike rate (straight out fitness, not an anomaly) Horses that have a win in the last four starts have a definite statistical S/R, horses with a place S/R of 50% or more seem to keep on doing it.

I won't go on but, etc etc, what I'm getting at is that you can narrow down the likely result by "form" and commonsense filters to gain an advantage. Technically it would be a system, but all the parameters based on commonsense, not anomalies.
.


Partypooper thats exactly what i was talking about.

I dont agree or rate all the ideas you listed above ie 21 days,but it looks like we go about things much the same way,who cares if it is systematical or not.

Funny how Guitar Jim was asked to put up or shut up and has gone missing lol.


All times are GMT +10. The time now is 05:40 AM.

Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.