Hi Max,
One very strong filter to consider is...

.Only Target races where the whole field has had 2+ career starts .
Otherwise, delete the race.

The reason for this is to be able to compare apples with apples,
instead of apples with apple surprise.
Just look at the outsiders that get up in those scattered form races, so they are usually best left alone.

There is nothing wrong with Maiden races , so long as they meet above criteria.

Bad day yesterday.

7 races selected for a total outlay of 80 units. Only MR3 returned for me. Returned $11.70 for 3 units gave me 46.80 units. Just over 50% return for the day. Not nice.

So far though, still in front:

Total Outlay 379.00 units
Total Return 644.30 units
Profit 265.30 units
Profit 170%

ROBOT
 

HI MAX.I have been following your thread and getting a few winners.One question you or any member might answer is which runner is selected when multi runners for the same fave occur.ie 3rd fav 6:1 3 runners listed at this price same race 5th fav 10:1 4 runners.Do we miss this race or filter some runners out .
Interested to see the reply Many thanks The robot.

Sorry if I am putting this up after the race. I have only just been able to get some time to check the races today and throw the qualfying 1 up here:

2011 05 09 MON VRECHUCA5, numbers 5 for 5 units, 4 for 4 units, and 9 for 3 units

=> Bagwan. Thanks. I think that has naturally been happening anyhow but I will keep that in the filters.

=> Robot. It would be interesting see what fintering out any races with multiple selections at any odds does to the results. I will look into that. To answer your question I check the recent race positions, so if 3 horses at 6.0 are listed with recent runs of s125, 3726, 0374, then the 3rd would be 1st (0374), then the 1st (s125) and then the middle one (3726). If the recent races are the same, then see if the formguide has an arrow for up in class or down in class and choose the down in class. If that is the same, then choose lightest weight. I wont go any further as I have never had any multiples by this stay escpecially when you weed out races that are Maidens or with horses with 0 career starts.

I just checked for multiples in the 3rd, 4th or 5th fav selected races. Out of 6 races selected to date that had multiples, here are the results:

No races had the 3rd and any previous on same odds.

3rd and 4th fav on same odds, 0 wins and 2 losses for a loss of 22.00 units

4th and 5th fav on same odds, 2 wins and 2 losses for a profit of 90.00 units

I think the multiples pay for themselves well but is waaaaay too early to tell. I wish I could work out how to use a database and backtrack it all.

However. I also looked at when the 5th fav was at the same odds as the 6th or 7th or thereafter. 6 races return a win of 46 units from an outlay of around 70 units, so there could be something in dropping races where my last horse selection is on the same odds line as the 6th fav. I will keep track of that one.

Just took a look at the 5th fav and whether or not it was the same odds as any following favs. 5 races matched with only 1 win. The win did not cover the cost of those 5 races, so dropping them from my selections to date increased my profit from 56% to 67% to date. My S/R dropped slightly from 33.33% to 30.56% but my average win increased from 53.69 to 54.32 units. Interesting.

I will keep an eye on including and not including those races as my sample data increases in size and duration.

ROBOT
 

[QUOTE=Robot]MAX
Maybe i did not explain myself well. What I want to know is if at the 3rd line of prices we have 4 runners, which one gets the nod then to find on the 5th line 3 runners are selected.
I am using per post odds from the paper a Fairfax publication here in NSW after scratchings which could give a false market. This is done of a morning as I make my bets then and get the results the next day
Thanks for your interest and looking forward to your comments.Like you new to the forum but what an exciting place if at all interested in the sport of KINGS Regards ROBOT.
PS ARE those runners not selected disregarded and then move to the next price line.

=> Robot. You did explain yourself. Maybe my explanation was not as easy to understand as it is to me, being in the know. I will try and post up a sample race.

In the meantime, WE HAD A WIN! Echuca race 5 returned 4.90 on the 4th favourite. Lower than what we wanted but enough to make a profit for the day using the unit stakes I prescribed. A 7.60 unit profit for the day.

So result to date are now:

Return	663.90
Outlay	414.00
Profit	$ 249.90
Profit %	160.36%

And if I drop races where the 5th fav has the same odds as those following:

Return	617.10
Outlay	357.00
Profit	$ 260.10
Profit %	172.86%

Here's an example race for selection:

Sat May 7 at SR Canterbury
Race 3 De Bertoli Wines Hcp 1100m 3yo & up Benchmark 85

1. 04850 Mount Verde 59.5k 21.00
2. 70871 Empire Place 57k 13.00
3. s5549 My Vegas 57k 13.00
4. s070s Martin Place 56.5k 35.00
5. 02471 Fitness Fanatic 56k 5.00
6. 1s211 Rain affair 56k 1.42
7. 32107 Mighty Obvious 54k 35.00
8. 33012 Ravna Gora SCRATCHED
9. 30s00 Danza Doll 53k 23.00

So I rank the top 6 using the odds on the right.
1st Fav would be #6 because the odds are 1.42
2nd Fav is #5 because he is 5.00
3rd Fav is #2 because 13.00 is the next odds and also #2 won his last start.
4th Fav is #3 because he is also 13.00 but with worse last start result than #2
5th Fav is #1 at 21.00
6th Fav is #9 at 23.00

To bet on the race, the 3rd Fav needs to be equal to or greater than 6.00, the 4th >= 8.00 and 5th >= 10.00. This race qualifies and so my selections would be #2, #3 and #1. They then go into my staking plan with weighs them based on their odds to make sure that whichever horse wins, a similar return on investment is achieved with an outlay of around 10-12 units per race. Sometimes the return is higher, sometimes lower than expected. In this case they were staked 4, 4 and 3 in that order, for an outlay of 11 units.

In this case the 1st Fav won. No problem. If the 3rd Fav had won at 13.00 then I would have won 52 units for an outlay of 11.

The selections for today:

*2011 05 10 TUE VRMORNINGTON4, numbers 3 for 4 units, 2 for 4 units, and 1 for 4 units
*2011 05 10 TUE CRCASINO5, numbers 8 for 4 units, 3 for 4 units, and 5 for 3 units
2011 05 10 TUE NRGOULBURN5, numbers 2 for 4 units, 3 for 4 units, and 7 for 3 units

The * selections are the B option which is to drop any races where the 5th fav is the same odds as the 6th or later favourites. This reduction is showing to be better off but is still in need of confirmation.

ROBOT
 

MAX

Thanks for that quick reply. A little late today the wife's sport day so a few extra chores.Have started to get todays selection from my paper and see how they confirm with yours .Many thanks again Regards ROBOT

Mixed emotions today.

2 of the races returned good values. Unfortunately they both are the ones I highlighted as having the 5th fav at the same odds as the 6th fav. Damn it! always the way.

So if you bet all 3 races you would have outlayed 34 units and won back 82.70 units for a ROI of 243% for the day.

If you dropped the "*" races you would have outlayed 11 units and got 3 back for a ROI of 27%.

There's always tomorrow.

I also went back and completed some race days that I had the paper for but did not run through my system. Using all races that qualify I am now on 140% ROI and if I drop races with 5th fav same odds as 6th fav the ROI jumps to 190%.

I also a few other things out. Running a 1 unit bet on 5th fav only if the races qualify as per my normal selection process returns a ROI of 280%, but wins are few are far between. Running a 2% bank grows the bank to 314% increase. May be something worth looking into I think.

I am also looking into what to do with races that do not qualify under my system and what I can do with those horses that do win in my selected races that are not my horses selected. A mouthful I know but the more I look into the data, the more questions I get. Good fun!

Hi Max,

You might want to consider using POT (Profit On Turnover) instead of ROI (Return On Investment) to describe your results as it is more commonly used in horse racing. I say this as in your above examples you refer to getting back 3 units on an 11 unit outlay and calling it a 27% ROI which would indicate a profit when it is actually a loss (-8 units).

It is much the same calculation but you divide the actual profit (or loss) by the outlay and not the total return.

Keep up the good work.

Cheers,

Matt.

ROBOT
 

MAX
HI After receiving your selections for today I than did mine as I indicated.I came up with similar answers but at 2 meetings there where scratchings which you had selected. I discarded them but are you doing yours without taking the scratchings out when analizing your selections.
Regards again ROBOT

Hi MAX and others

A good site for pre post markets tonight for tomorrows racing is http://www.**************.com.au/form-guides.

Not sure about Qld Courier Mail but you can check it out, but I do know that the prices quoted tonight will be identical for those in the Daily Telegraph here in NSW tomorrow morning.

Hope that is a help for those that want identical selections.

Cheers.

Enjay

Selections for today are:

*2011 05 11 WED PRBELMONT5, numbers 9 for 4 units, 3 for 4 units, and 8 for 3 units
*2011 05 11 WED PRBELMONT7, numbers 5 for 5 units, 3 for 3 units, and 4 for 3 units

Both these races have the 5th fav at the same odds as the 6th and so would be dropped from Option B of the plan. But as we saw yesterday, this may not necessarily be a bad thing. Overall, they still are but the sample data is too small to tell for sure.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

=> Matt. Thanks Matt. To me ROI is the actual return compared to the investment, so 27% would mean a 73% loss. But I will move over to dividing the Profit by the Outlay and calling it POT from now on.

=> Robot. I do my selections 1st thing in the morning. The idea of this plan is to set and forget. Set them as soon as the data is avail, make the bets and then check them the next morning. If you do move the selections up in ranking when a selection is scratched, what sort of result did you get?

=> Enjay. Thanks mate. I hate having to steal the Courier Mail from the hotel lobby each morning. Having something similar online, especially the night before sounds awesome. I will check it out and respond.

Interesting.

According to the odds on that link, 4 Belmont races qualify:

PR5*
PR6*
PR7*
PR9

Again with * to show any with 5th fav on same odds as the 6th fav.

I hope to check all the tracks today and will be interesting to see the results.

In addition to above, W2B site qualifies Randwick 6* and 7.

ROBOT
 

HI MAX. In answer to what do I DO with a scratching to a maybe selection I have been ignoring that race as the PP would alter to a great extent So why worry as I do this manually.Regards ROBOT

A very interesting day.

According to selections of the original system, 2 races were selected for a total outlay of 22 units and 1 of them returned 38 units.

Both races would have been dropped according to Option B which drops races where the 5th fav is the same odds as the 6th fav.

Using the odds on the web2bet site, a total of 6 races were identified with returns on 4 of them. These odds are turning out to be a good source. Maybe even a set alternative.

Further testing required.

Okay results time

OPTION A (standard 3rd, 4th and 5th fav if they are odds of >=6, >=8, >=10:
WTD (week to date) Returns 141.10 units off 68 for POT of 107%
MTD (month to date) Returns 187 units off 159 for POT of 18%
YTD (year to date) Returns 728 off 514 for POT of 41%

OPTION B (drop any race where 5th fav is same odds as 6th fav)
WTD returns 22 off 23 for POT -2%
MTD returns 22 off 56 for POT -60%
YTD returns 554 off 298 for POT 86%

I guess dropping those races DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE!

OPTION C (using Web2Bet website instead of Courier Mail for odds)
WTD returns 121 off 68 for POT 78%

Selections for today:

OPTION C (w2b site)
Ballarat7 - 3,12,4*
Ballarat8 - 9,3,6*
GoldCoast6 - 1,7,11*

I will get to the Courier Mail when I can.

courier Mail race selections are:

*2011 05 12 THU QRGOLDCOAST4, numbers 5 for 5 units, 2 for 4 units, and 12 for 3 units
2011 05 12 THU ARMORPHETTVILLE1, numbers 1 for 5 units, 10 for 4 units, and 4 for 2 units
2011 05 12 THU ARMORPHETTVILLE6, numbers 7 for 4 units, 8 for 4 units, and 5 for 3 units
*2011 05 12 THU VRBALLARAT7, numbers 3 for 4 units, 12 for 4 units, and 4 for 3 units
*2011 05 12 THU VRBALLARAT8, numbers 9 for 4 units, 3 for 4 units, and 6 for 3 units

Results:

OPTION A
Return 28.00
Outlay 56.00
Profit -$28.00
POT% -50.00%

OPTION B
Return 28.00
Outlay 22.00
Profit $6.00
POT% 27.27%

OPTION C (W2B)
Return -
Outlay 34.00
Profit -$34.00
POT -100%

Selections for tomorrow (FRI):

OPTION C (odds using Web2Bet site)
*2011 05 13 FRI ALBANY2
*2011 05 13 FRI IPSWICH1
*2011 05 13 FRI IPSWICH2
2011 05 13 FRI IPSWICH4
2011 05 13 FRI SCONE3
*2011 05 13 FRI SCONE6
*2011 05 13 FRI SCONE7

Hi Max - you are going very well but just a thought ...

if the Pre-Post market is calculated for "Good" tracks and the tracks are Heavy (or slow) as was the situation today could this be one reason for today's below average performance?

Fred

I did go back through my selections to date and record the track conditions and filtering these made no real difference to returns. I am keeping an eye on this though as the sample data increases, so too will some of these less affecting filters, hopefully!

More selections for today (FRI):

OPTION 1 (Courier Mail)
*2011 05 13 FRI ALBANY2, numbers 8 for 4 units, 2 for 4 units, and 9 for 3 units
2011 05 13 FRI IPSWICH1, numbers 8 for 5 units, 9 for 4 units, and 2 for 3 units
*2011 05 13 FRI SCONE5, numbers 13 for 4 units, 6 for 4 units, and 7 for 3 units

Okay so lets expand on the track condition as a possible filter using data to date.

Total results for all data to date up to and including Thurs 12/5:

OPTION 1 (Courier Mail 3rd fav >= 6.00, 4th fav >= 8.00 and 5th fav >= 10.00)
Return 756.10
Outlay 570.00
Profit $186.10
POT% 32.65%

OPTION 2 (Courier Mail with races dropped where 5th fav is same odds as 6th fav)
Return 582.80
Outlay 320.00
Profit $262.80
POT% 82.13%

OPTION 3 (same as Option 1 but using WEB2BET site)
Return 121.00
Outlay 102.00
Profit $19.00
POT 19%

Now If I separate these by track condition of HEAVY, SLOW, DEAD, GOOD we get:

HEAVY OPTION 1
Return 34.00
Outlay 47.00
Profit -$13.00
POT% -27.66%

HEAVY OPTION 2
Return 34.00
Outlay 35.00
Profit -$1.00
POT% -2.86%

HEAVY OPTION 3
Return -
Outlay 12.00
Profit -$12.00
POT -100%

SLOW OPTION 1
Return 152.20
Outlay 101.00
Profit $51.20
POT% 50.69%

SLOW OPTION 2
Return 109.30
Outlay 57.00
Profit $52.30
POT% 91.75%

SLOW OPTION 3
Return 62.40
Outlay 23.00
Profit $39.40
POT 171%

DEAD OPTION 1
Return 389.00
Outlay 321.00
Profit $68.00
POT% 21.18%

DEAD OPTION 2
Return 300.40
Outlay 172.00
Profit $128.40
POT% 74.65%

DEAD OPTION 3
Return -
Outlay 22.00
Profit -$22.00
POT -100%

GOOD OPTION 1
Return 180.90
Outlay 101.00
Profit $79.90
POT% 79.11%

GOOD OPTION 2
Return 139.10
Outlay 56.00
Profit $83.10
POT% 148.39%

GOOD OPTION 3
Return 58.60
Outlay 45.00
Profit $13.60
POT 30%

Sample data for OPTION 3 is only 3 days long so little can be gleaned at this stage from that data.

Looking at this now, maybe there is something in dropping HEAVY tracks?

I am hoping to get this sample data to a full month where I have checked at least 3 - 4 days per week to a sample data range of 20+ days of racing. Then hopefully I will be able to get a good idea of some effective filters to apply.

Heck I may even open an online account and put a dollar or 2 down!

Max
You are targeting the 3-4 & 5th favorite. Good tracks account for two thirds of all races. Good tracks actually favour the favorite and the second favorite. track condition other than good favour the 3-4-5 & 6th favs. It is only a slight bias less than 1% in all. 14.62% on 13.99% is a 4.5% increase for 3rd fav. 11.2% on 10.31% is an 8.63% increase for 4th fav. 5th favs results are consistent. 6th fav 6.68% on 5.66% is an 18% increase. These are the best results for slow,heavy,fast and dead tracks compared with good tracks.
I would not exclude track conditions

Hi Max,

Congratulations on what you have achieved so far and may it continue to prosper!

I have had a look at the qualifiers you have put up so far and have looked at only considering races with >=11 runners. It appears to increase your profit and POT% considerably.

I also consider only City meetings with >= 11 runners and this too increased your profit and POT%.

Obviously with so few selections the trends may not continue but may be they will - who is to know.

Let's see what happens over the next month or two.

Max
your best filter for these is.
DO NOT BET IT FAV IS <$2.50 on tote. You may even push it out to $3. With form, (no maidens no 1st uppers etc) and under $2 it is the favorite's race. Between $2 and $3 it is the fav and 2nd fav's races so long as the second fav price is <$4. From $3 fav price the strike rate for the 3-4 & 5 favs increase from their average strike rate. Beton

Selections for Sat 14th May

OPTION 1
20110514SAT BELMONT1, numbers 2 for 5 units, 7 for 4 units, and 5 for 3 units
*20110514SAT BELMONT5, numbers 10 for 5 units, 7 for 4 units, and 6 for 3 units
20110514SAT CAULFIELD6, numbers 4 for 5 units, 8 for 4 units, and 1 for 3 units
*20110514SAT DOOMBEN3, numbers 12 for 4 units, 2 for 4 units, and 7 for 4 units
20110514SAT DOOMBEN4, numbers 11 for 4 units, 2 for 4 units, and 5 for 3 units
20110514SAT DOOMBEN6, numbers 4 for 4 units, 10 for 4 units, and 2 for 3 units
20110514SAT DOOMBEN7, numbers 5 for 5 units, 7 for 4 units, and 4 for 3 units
*20110514SAT SCONE2, numbers 5 for 4 units, 1 for 4 units, and 3 for 3 units
*20110514SAT SCONE3, numbers 6 for 4 units, 4 for 4 units, and 7 for 3 units
*20110514SAT SCONE4, numbers 7 for 5 units, 8 for 4 units, and 5 for 3 units

OPTION 2
As above but drop the * races

OPTION 3
20110514SAT CAULFIELD6
*20110514SAT CAULFIELD7
20110514SAT DOOMBEN4
20110514SAT DOOMBEN6
20110514SAT DOOMBEN7
*20110514SAT SCONE3
*20110514SAT SCONE4
20110514SAT SCONE6

Thanks for the input Beton and Try Try. I will take at these ideas further next week and report back.

I'm also going to check into the suggestion on another thread about the 1st and 2nd favs more likely to win the 1st few races of the day when compared to the last few races. See if that increases or decreases my POT. Stay tuned.

Looks like a lot of action tomorrow. Let the maths roll on!

Results for FRI 13th MAY (very very bad!)

OPTION 1
Return -
Outlay 34.00
Profit -$34.00
POT% -100.00%

OPTION 2
Return -
Outlay 12.00
Profit -$12.00
POT% -100.00%

OPTION 3
Return 17.60
Outlay 79.00
Profit -$61.40
POT -78%

And just when I thought I was getting on top of this system!

Hi Max,

Any updated selection numbers with 3 races having scratchings? i.e. Doomben 3, Scone 2 & 4.

No. This is a set and forget system. Plus, I checked those races tonight the winners were earlier in the race or the next horse and was still in the 3 picks anyhow.

Results today (BAD!):
OPTION 1
Return 90.30
Outlay 116.00
Profit -$25.70
POT% -22.16%

OPTION 2
Return 45.70
Outlay 58.00
Profit -$12.30
POT% -21.21%

OPTION 3
Return 90.00
Outlay 93.00
Profit -$3.00
POT -3%

On a side note, betting 5th on ALL races that qualify with 5% of the bank:

Start $245.60
Current $271.60
Profit $26.00
POT% 10.59%