Today's 28 selections turned into 28 smiles for a disappointing profit of $11.18.

Today is the end of the first week since introducing the filter that a qualifying race must have a minimum of 9 runners.

During the week there's been 252 selections for 249 smiles for a profit of $99.28 laying each selection for a liability of $33.

SR v impressive at nearly 99%, michaelg

What is the hypothetical outlay for these?

Cheers LG

I lay each selection for a fixed liability of $33 on S.P.

I recently started to lay them for higher liabilities (while still recording them as $33) but a couple days ago decided against it because of the short space of time of the existing method (7 days) and have since reverted back to the original $33 liability.

If the success continues I will certainly increase the current lay-bet of $33 liability.

Did you record the outlay?

Hi, L.G.

The outlay is $33 per selection.

Because there's been 252 selections the outlay has been $8,316 for a profit of $99.28. I wonder how this compares with Maria's outlay/profit?

When you say the outlay is $33, don't you mean the max liability / risk if there is a winner, for each bet? In other words, if the selection gets up to win, you pay out $33 max, if it looses, you gain a return which is dependant on the odds offered?

LG

PS so although the total amount risked is $8,316, the actual outlay is just the $33 risked x no. of accidents. IS this correct or did I just fail 'Lay betting for dummies' ??

Cheers LG

Both of those are correct Mr LG.

Thanks Mr. TO.

LG

Yes, would be interesting to see how Maria yield compares.

LG

Hi, L.G.

T.O is correct. It can be confusing. I think some people are conditioned to the Exchange but not S.P. as it's not been available for all that long. They are two completely types of laying, and again it can be confusing.

I think laying horses that are fancied in the market would do better being layed on the exchange whilst outsiders do better on S.P. (as I do) - but that's just my opinion.

(1) When laying there is no outlay. There is risk.
(2) The risk (in this case) is always $33 so the payout is not $33, it is $33 plus the bet taken. eg @ 33/1 the payout is $34, @ 2/1 the payout is $66.
(3) Laying outsiders one out is not the fastest way to the poor house, but you will get there eventually, as seen by MG's returns and the need to have a strike rate of close to 100%. 28/28 sounds great but at an average price of 80-85 it's madness. No matter how you look at it, the risk return is way out of kilter. One bad day could literally wipe out months of profits.

Sorry to be the (unwanted?) voice of reason, but this could also apply to most "systems" put forward here.

Thanks for the clarity, chaps.
No voice of reason answer is unwanted 'Mark', not in this case at least!

When you say 1 bad day could wipe out months of profits, assume you
mean several consecutive losses after a long string of smiles.. How likely would this be with a 90%+ SR?

Cheers LG

Correction, the payout @ 2/1 is $49.50, @ evens would be $66.

LG, not sure how likely, but it will happen. Even say 3 days of "just" 90% strike rate would be bad.

Hi, Mark.

Are you talking about laying on the Exchange or S.P? If there's an accident on S.P. the payout is always $33. I know because it's unfortunately happened, and also a few seconds after the jump the selection is shown with a red $33 against it's name.

Laying SP is at liability, so the risk is $33, not the payout.

Every time I have an accident my payout is $33. I think we'll have to agree to disagree.

I'm having too many troubles with the R&S website so I'll list the selections that I've been able to identify.

M'ville
7/9, 11
8/10,11

Bendigo
2/9
4/4, 13
7/13
8/8

Ipswich
2/8
3/4
4/9
5/10
7/3, 4

Pakenham
3,1, 2, 8, 9

Sun Coast
1/8
2/1, 2, 4, 10
3/9

If I can get back into the R.S. website I'll try to list any more selections.

Today's Muswellbrook selections:

1/10
3/7, 8, 11, 12,13
5/1, 4, 6, 12
6/1, 8, 10
9/2.

[QUOTE=michaelg]Every time I have an accident my payout is $33. I think we'll have to agree to disagree.

QUOTE]

There's no argument to be had MG, liability and payout are not the same.
Imagine you're a bookie, which is what laying is about and somebody wants to have $1 @ 33/1 or $34. The bet is 33 - 1 and $34 appears on the ticket. The risk or liability is $33 and the payout is $34. Yes you're liability is always $33 but you also give back the $1 bet you're holding. If this was not the case then you would not receive the $1 when the horse loses. Same if the horse was even money and the punter wants $33 on. The bet is $33 - $33 and $66 appears on the ticket. The liability is (still) $33 but the payout is $66. So when it loses you receive $33. You have to look at it that before the race is over you have written a bet to risk $33.
If that doesn't explain it have a look at any of your bookie accounts (I'm assuming you would have some). When you have a $1 bet on at 33/1, $1 is removed from your account until after the race and if it wins you receive $34. Your balance goes up by $33 however the bookie has paid you $34.

Today's Scone selections:

4/4, 9
6/7, 9, 11
7/5
8/5, 10

I see your point now Mark.
However, what I am really trying to get to I guess is how much is the bet that michaelg is taking on when he lays for a liability of $33

$1 = 1 unit each time OR does it vary?

Michaelg??

Cheers LG

Mark, not being too savvy with maths I don't know if I follow your explanation.

I always thought the liability and payout were one and the same thing when laying single selections on Betfair S.P. I can understand laying with bookies, but on Betfair only the payout is shown which I assume is also the layer's liability because that is the amount he loses/pays out if the selection wins the race.

Its all getting a bit complicated. If you have a maximum liability (like $33) THAT IS ALL YOU will pay out of your account regardless of the money taken in from the other party.

$34 horse - If the horse wins you pay out your liability of $33 and give the guy his $1 back.

$2 Horse - If you've decided to have a maximum liability of $33 on a horse at this price and it wins you pay out your liability of $33 but also have to give back the back bet that the other party would of placed which, in this case, happens to also be $33 making it $66 going into the other guys account ($33 of your money and his bet returned).

$10 Horse wins with a liability of $30. The backer would of had to place a $3.33 bet to win $30. You therefore have to pay him $30 from your account and his $3.33 back as well. If the horse loses you keep his $3.33 (less commission of course).

I hope this helps (and I hope its right).

Thanks, T.O.

A bad day yesterday. There were two accidents from the 42 selections for a loss of $33.97.

There have now been 289 smiles from 294 selections for a profit of $65.31. My best day provided a profit of $65.76 so it's grounds to hope today might recoup most of the loss and not begin the road to despair.

Hi Michaelg.

Have been thinking about looking at lg1 / lg2 with your DS outsiders but this time apply them in the reverse. In other words, take out anything that can win. Not suggesting that it would eliminate all accidents, but it might help to reduce your risk.

What do you think?

Cheers LG

As an initial trial for lg1/2 trim, are you able to list the two accidents?

Cheers LG

The bad boys were:

Pakenham 1/2
Sun Coast 2/4

See above

Cheers LG

No alarm bells ringing when a 95% strike rate equals a bad day???

PS the 2nd race in Sun City was what one might refer to as a 'skin head' = there's going to be pain!

skinhead => lg1 and/or lg2 indicating that any of the selections can win

Cheers LG

I've had alarm bells from day one.

Yesterday, and the day before, the smiles were disappointing, but overall the profit before then was about $1 per race, so even though I might be deluding myself I'm still somewhat optimistic things might change.

Here is the gold in your focus, I feel.

It's why people on here are mostly interested in 'what keeps michaelg interested'

Keep it coming, master blaster.

LG

Thanks for the kind words and encouragement, L.G.

Let's hope you're spot-on and things improve.

Today's selections:

Rosehill
4/10
5/11
8/7, 11

Flemington
4/9
6/6
8/1

Eagle Farm
5/8
6/13
7/15
8/10,11

Morphetville
7/6

Kembla
2/9
4/5

Bathurst
5/6, 9
7/3, 10

Albury
1/3, 7, 8, 10, 13
4/10
5/10, 12
6/4, 10

Gold Coast
5/10
7/1
8/14

Stawell
3/9, 15
5/10, 11

Toowoomba
1/2, 3, 8
2/11

Ascot
5/10
6/4, 10 ,16

It's a pity yesterday's Murwillumbah R3 was called off because we woud have won $12.73.

Mark
I have a lot of experience laying on BF and the above is not correct. For a 2/1 chance ($3) the payout if the horse wins is $33. If it loses I would win $16 approx. At evens the figures are $33 loss on a winner or $33 profit if the horse loses. For a 10/1 shot the loss is $33 and the win is $3.30 if the horse loses.

Hi Speedy, you can back every 2/1 shot with me then.
You put on $16.50 (to win $33) and I will gladly pay you $33 every time they win.

The bet to lose $33 @ 2/1 or $3 is........... $33 to $16.50.
The figure on the ticket (the payout) is $49.50.

If it wins, the bookie loses $33 and pays out $49.50.
If it loses, the bookie wins the $16.50 that the punter has bet.
It could not be more simple.

I've also had a bit of experience laying....around 29 years.
I do this for a living.

A good day.

From the 43 selections there were 43 smiles for a profit of $48.53 which has recouped yesterday's loss of $33.97.

If I put 16.50 on a 2/1 shot I expect to win $33. What could be simpler than that? I get my $16.50 back and the bookie pays me $33 of his money. You really are confused.

Here is a fuller explanation. You are thinking like a bookie not a BF layer.

If I put 16.50 on a 2/1 shot I expect to win $33. What could be simpler than that? I get my $16.50 back and the bookie pays me $33 of his money. You have misread my post to think that I don't expect my stake back if betting with a bookie. Of course I do. Where you are confused is that when laying on BF the backer does not actually give me his money up front. When the race is over I either take his 16.50 or he takes my $33.
The reason that the bookie pays out $49.50 is because he has taken the backers money up front. That does not happen on the exchange. BF hold both amounts until the contest is decided. I'm sure you haven't had 29 years laying on BF.

Dear oh dear.

Where did I say I've had all those years on BF?

I'm so hopelss at this game that I'm off overseas for 3 weeks..........and I don't have a "real" job.

Good luck Ben, you're going to need it.