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Here's the latest Order of Entry: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...236d869bf3.ashx
And here are the nominees that are running across the weekend:
Could be the last shot for some of these: second declarations are due on Tuesday. |
Last few days of results from nominees:
Second declarations are due noon Tuesday, 13th October. |
Second acceptances announced this afternoon: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...2nd-acceptances
The 29 contenders who have dropped out of the running are: ALMANIA (IRE) AMERICAN WHISKEY (USA) ANGEL OF TRUTH ATTENTION RUN (GER) BARADE (FR) CREEDENCE DADOOZDART (GB) DANCETERIA (FR) DJUKON (GB) FEEL THE RUSH (NZ) GAME KEEPER GOOD IDEA HIGH EMOCEAN (NZ) IN GOOD HEALTH INVOLVED (GB) JUST THINKIN' KINANE (NZ) NORWAY (IRE) ORDEROFTHEGARTER (IRE) PORT GUILLAUME (FR) RONDINELLA (NZ) ROYAL CROWN SIR CHARLES ROAD SOUTH PACIFIC (GB) SUPER GIRL SWEET THOMAS (GER) YOUNG RASCAL (FR) ZACADA (NZ) ZAMOSA (NZ) Here is the order of entry of the remainders: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...-at-oct-13-2020 Third acceptances close Monday, 26th October at 12pm. A few of the nominees are racing at Caulfield tomorrow:
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walkermac, based on the usual stats around weight, females, age plus removing 1 or 2 horses i don't really like or think are underpriced I can only see that there are a few left over who are under current odds of about $41 and are very likely to get a start unless they pull out.
These would be: Santiago Tiger Moth Warning Toffee Tongue I'm not a fan of russian camelot (think hes overhyped and thus odds are too low), also not a big fan of returning runners being a year older and up in weight winning it 2nd time around (although often can place). Therefore the list above seems like a bit of an early shortlist to me but was wondering what your or others thoughts were? Unfortunately the two I had some all-in futures multi's on are both now out (Nancho and Port Guillaume). |
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Results from nominees the past couple of days:
I think we can safely forget those.... Nominees racing this weekend:
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Its good to see all this leading up to the race but I'll just be going back to the table that marks all the negatives and go with horses with the least negatives.
I assume you will be putting that table together again after next weekends races ? ie http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/sho...3&postcount=123 |
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I might have missed a black type race if it happened in Germany (R&S skips them). |
Saturday results:
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Looking at that list who are in the top 24 we can contain our bets down to these horses:
TIGER MOTH (IRE) RUSSIAN CAMELOT(IRE) SURPRISE BABY (NZ) FINCHE (GB) PERSAN MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) SIR DRAGONET (IRE) BUCKHURST (IRE) 9 horses only which is not a bad list. I would look to reduce these down further to TIGER MOTH (IRE) RUSSIAN CAMELOT(IRE) PERSAN MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) SIR DRAGONET (IRE) We can eliminate these horses: SURPRISE BABY (NZ) -- TOO FAR BACK -- UNPLACED IN 2019 BUCKHURST (IRE) -- ODDS ARE TOO LONG FINCHE (GB) -- UNPLACED IN 2019 / 2018 |
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Russian Camelot could lose some points also, depending how he goes in the Cox Plate this weekend (NB - he will gain a point due to the field size) Quote:
Persan must be a candidate for ruling out. His rating seems way too low. He's had 19 starts as well, so it's not like the handicappers haven't had a good look at him. |
I'm always weary of including horses that are trying to have a second or third go at it. Seems the often can run a place if performed well in previous years but rarely actually win. Now that may be simply due to luck or variance but its incredibly hard to win one melbourne cup, its even harder to try again second time around after losing previously with typically a higher weight and another years runs in the legs at an older age.
Not saying those runners can't run a great race, but if you want to narrow down the winning chances they'd be the first i'd look at in terms of winning. But it would be dangerous not to include them in exotics for placings. |
Just noticed that the table I posted up was wrong. The total included a "< 10th position on the turn" point, which hasn't been part of "the system" since the first year (retrospectively).
Removing that column leaves Tiger Moth and Surprise Baby as the only ones with a clean sweep. Nominees racing this Wednesday. Runners are eligible for a weight handicap in The Cup. Top 3 here run a qualifying performance and the prizemoney is added to their tally in the Order of Entry (latest one: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...-2020.pdf?la=en). No-one's going to leap their way into the Top 24 without a weight penalty. There could be some shuffling in the order though: San Huberto winning would see him land in 25th position. bet365 Geelong - Race 7 - 4:00PM bet365 Geelong Cup (2400 METRES)
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I appreciate all the work you put it.
I'll do my final selections the day of the cup, but its looking like a more condensed set of selections this year compared to the last few years. I only remove runners who have been in this race previously and not run well. Its a good filter to use but a little subjective. |
Results from Cup nominees yesterday:
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Steel Prince was awarded a 0.5kg weight penalty for his Geelong Cup victory yesterday. This seems him promoted up to 25th in the Order of Entry.
Not as good news for Django Freeman, Aktau and Santiago who have all been withdrawn through injury. Here's the Order of Entry released today: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...3326db11d5.ashx (NB - still includes Django Freeman). 62 runners remain in the hunt. Two ballot exemptions are still on offer: one to the victor of Saturday's Cox Plate and the other to the winner of the Hotham Stakes (the Saturday following). There's less than 2 weeks to until the big dance! :O |
Today's Cup nominees:
The Valley - Race 8 - 3:30PM McCafe Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500 METRES)
The Valley - Race 9 - 4:15PM Ladbrokes Cox Plate (2040 METRES)
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Sir Dragonets run was eye catching. It was a good ride though which couldn't be faulted.
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Weekend results from Cup nominees:
2040m Soft7 COX PLATE Group 1 $5,250,000
2500m Soft7 MV CUP Group 2 $511,000
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Collide is out and there may be a few more to follow tomorrow, with third acceptances due. Following the weekend's racing, "the system" tallies now looks like this:
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Third acceptances are in and there are a couple of surprises: three of the top 24 dropped out of the running.
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Couldn't help myself:
Who has the lucky number 17?Repeat thread readers (firstly: apologies for how lame it's been this year) would know about the number 17 factor. About one quarter of Cup runners share this feature BUT 10 of the last 12 winners had it. (Last year's didn't; the 2 races where it failed over that period were also the 2 slowest - no coincidence). I am, of course, talking about each runner's Conduit Mare Stamina figure. Way too complicated to go into just what that is here; if you're interested seek the "Is Dosage bunkum?" thread. The lucky number 17 runners after third acceptances are: AVILIUS7 SURPRISE BABY16 MIAMI BOUND20 STEEL PRINCE22 ASHRUN29 SCHABAU40 So it looks like four will make the final field, unless there are any scratchings or Hotham winners among them. Surprise Baby and Schabau are the only ones who are also on the top two rungs of 'the system' ladder currently. Can we call Surprise Baby the winner yet? ;) |
I was going to ask about the dosage when the final field was declared. Thanks for providing it earlier. Based on those with it:
AVILIUS - Not enough of the other factors to be considered a contender. SURPRISE BABY - This stat brings this horse back into my list of contenders. MIAMI BOUND - A total of 7 might have this one just edge in my selections given the dosage. STEEL PRINCE - same as Miami bound. It may or may not get into my selection list after only scoring 7 in the total column. ASHRUN- If it makes the 24 its in my list of contenders. SCHABAU-If it makes the 24 its in my list of contenders. Really looking forward to the final 24 and seeing the table of points. I think the winning horse will have a score of 8 or higher. But I am willing to stretch it down to 7 if there are compelling reasons. Half the field currently has at least a score of 7 or higher if I counted right. |
Cup nominees racing today:
Bendigo - Race 7 - 4:00PM Apiam Bendigo Cup (2400 METRES)
If Zebrowski wins, the prizemoney should get him into 23rd in the Order of Entry. The rest will need to get at least a 1.5kg penalty to get into the field. They're all nominated for the Hotham and I had anticipated them going there instead (like Lord Belvedere and Azuro have). Scratchings closed a couple of hours ago, so it looks like they may have given up on the Melbourne Cup. I guess it only cost them $3k for their third declaration... |
Results from today. Looks like Zebrowski will now need a couple to drop out to get a start. The remainder look like they've done their dash.
2400m Good4 BDGO CUP Group 3 $400,000
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Results from the Hotham Stakes today. The winner is into the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday.
2500m Good4 HOTHAM HCP Group 3 $201,300
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I've mentioned this Cup System over the last few years and it picked last year's winner. It's "Aspro's Melbourne Cup System", presumably soon to be posted by Racing & Sports:
Rule 1 - List any Cup acceptor placed in either the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes (now irrelevant moved to finals day) Verry Elleegant, Anthony Van Dyck, The Chosen One Rule 2 - List any Cup acceptor placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup Miami Bound, Oceanex Rule 3 - List any acceptor who was placed 1-2-3 in the Melbourne Cup at their last cup run Vow And Declare, Prince Of Arran Rule 4 - List the Lexus Stakes winner Ashrun Rule 5 - Delete any horse whose last run in the Melbourne Cup was an unplaced run. Goodbye: The Chosen One Rule 6 - Delete any horse who is aged 3yo or 7yo or older. Goodbye: Prince Of Arran So per this system, the winner comes from: Verry Elleegant, Anthony Van Dyck, Miamia Bound, Oceanex, Vow And Declare, and Ashrun. There must be some doubt regarding Vow And Declare there, back-to-back winners are kinda rare... Note also that it doesn't account for debuting foreign runners, which was considered a bit of a negative thing for a while, but is well and truly not as great an issue now. The only eligible debuting international this year though is Tiger Moth. Stratum Albium is out due to Rule 6. Both Master Of Reality - arguably, I guess - and Twilight Payment are omitted due to Rule 5. |
Here is the average extra distance each barrier runs (based on the last 3 years since information has been publicly available):
 I posted the below in the 2018 thread regarding barriers and it seemed to work out somewhat last year as well: Since 2000: First <=B15: 83.33% >B15: 16.67% Top 2 <=B15: 83.33% >B15: 16.67% Top 3 <=B15: 81.48% >B15: 18.52% Top 4 <=B15: 81.94% >B15: 18.06% Were it random chance, going by the average field size over the past 18 editions (excluding those who didn't complete the race), it should be: <=B15: 66.17% >B15: 33.83% 5th position is where the outer barrier's results start to catch up to expectation. For those finishing exactly 5th, it's 50-50 whether they were drawn outside barrier 15 these past 18 years. 5th-7th: those in outside barriers are over-represented <=B15: 55.46% >B15: 44.44% 8th-14th: it seems to swing back <=B15: 72.22% >B15: 27.88% remainder: and back again <=B15: 56.41% >B15: 43.52% Does it go in the placings: good inside horses over-represented, then good outside horses over-represented, then dodgy inside horses over-represented, then dodgy outside horses over-represented? What kind of outside-drawn horses overcome their misfortune and finish top-4? The 3 winners within the sample were <= 52kg. 11 of the 13 top-4 finishers were also <= $21 despite their draw. Of the 140 finishers drawn outside barrier 15, the <= $21 rule eliminates 99 candidates and misses 1 second and 1 third (Jakkalberry and Red Cadeaux). Weight <= 54kg elimates a further 12 for no further top-4 misses. The above might help with some borderline First-4 selections after the barrier draw... |
Barrier draw:
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Here are the results of "the system". NB - price movements will have to be monitored up until racetime to be fully accurate. Top two runs seem to do pretty well. Those with a 17 Stamina figure are also noted.
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I beleive this year it will be won by one of the horses with 8 or higher. That leaves us with 9 selections.
SIR DRAGONET (IRE) SURPRISE BABY (NZ) RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE) ASHRUN (FR) TIGER MOTH (IRE) FINCHE (GB) MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR) PERSAN Based on these I would eliminate the following usiong the barrier: ASHRUN RUSSIAN CAMELOT TIGER MOTH KING OF LEOGRANCE PERSAN I would eliminate the following due to odds : KING OF LEOGRANCE PERSAN I would remove the following from failing in previous Melb Cup attempts: MASTER OF REALITY (Came 4th last year) SURPRISE BABY (Came 5th last year) FINCHE (Came 7th last year, 4th the year before) I could almost be forgivable of the above rule this year due to COVID. So what do we have left: SIR DRAGONET (IRE) If we include those who ran previously in a melbourne cup unplaced we are down to 4 horses: SIR DRAGONET (IRE) SURPRISE BABY MASTER OF REALITY FINCHE My order of preference is : Sire Dragonet Suprise baby Master of Reality I'll risk Finche not be included after 2 failures already in the cup. I am looking forward to seeing what others think. |
Here's my view (Part I):
1 - Anthony Van Dyck 26 runners sired by Galileo progeny with 0 wins. 2 seconds and 2 thirds, so I'm not sure there's *too* much in that, but none of those placegetters carried 58.5kg. Beating Stradivarius is pretty good and coming 2nd to Ghaiyyath by just 2.5L is not too shabby either. So while he's not got a great win record at G1-level, against opposition like that it can be overlooked somewhat. He appears to be the best horse to contest the Melbourne Cup in a fair while, the only real queries on him are the distance and his weight in comparison to others. I reckon he's probably 0.5kg less than he should be; so much of a muchness there. I also reckon around 2400-2700m is his best so that weight may prove quite telling in the last couple of furlongs. Truth be told, horses carrying 58kg or above don't have a bad record this century. A few misses (Admire Rakti wasn't well, Snow Sky flubbed the ridiculous Prince of Penzance year, Septimus ran a stupid race in his, and Dunaden never saw a soft track again after his initial win) but the rest were handy: Makybe Diva won; Vinnie Roe finished 2nd, 4th and 8th; Americain was 4th then 11th in his final ever race; and Viewed was handicapped out of it following his win the previous year, still finishing 7th. He's a chance to win, but perhaps likelier to place; $10 2 - Avilius Had his best run since coming to Australia in last month's Caulfield Cup: blocked for a run badly then almost caught Finche, and was only just shaded by Prince Of Arran. Meanwhile Avilius is at $51 in markets and that pair is $12-$18. Didn't really come on in Spring last year, and was only pretty good this Autumn, but appears to be in great form now. Even his trainer doesn't think he's suited to 3200m but he's won at 2500m previously and his one go in the 2018 Cup *looks* terrible but he almost fell over a broken-down horse and was found to have lacerations afterward. I agree that it's slightly beyond his preferred but he seems very much under the radar. Was $16 ahead of the Cup two years ago but on account of the extra kgs and how strong the field is this year: $26 3 - Vow And Declare Should have been at least $51 last year. Ridiculous good fortune, a gifted ride, an opposition who handed him the race, and - finally - Il Paradiso and Master Of Reality trying to three-stooge their way past him, pushed him across the line in first. Only a chance if the field walks again, but it doesn't look like that kind of race. $71. 4 - Master Of Reality No Frankie Dettori in the saddle so he could have a chance here... Doesn't look like he's in the form that preceded last year's Cup. Two big losses to Twilight Payment upon resuming, then two better runs but only at G3 and Listed level among mixed company and slow speed. Doesn't look classy enough or have much of a turn of foot if necessary. $26 5 - Sir Dragonet There aren't many who have done the Cox Plate-Melbourne Cup double but trainer Ciaron Maher says he'll be even better in the latter. Couldn't receive a weight penalty following his Cox Plate win so if he can maintain the same level of performance then he's snuck by the handicapper a little. Last year he was just beaten by Anthony Van Dyck over 2400m at level weights; in the Cup he'll be carrying 3kg less. 2900m is his furthest contested distancce and in that race (last year) he beat Il Paradiso by 2 lengths. Both Il Paradiso in 2019 and Sir Dragonet in 2020 are 4kg under their benchmarks. I think he'll be fine over the 3200m and deserves to be favourite. $8 6 - Twilight Payment 11th in last year's Cup, but that's not saying much. Won a couple of times earlier in this campaign, comfortably, but in very slowly-run races. Melham appears to be the favoured jockey and he's aboard Master Of Reality, so it's hard to favour Twilight Payment over his stablemate. If team riding was allowed in the Cup *wink wink* I daresay that he would be towing Master Of Reality around the course. Hopefully the (Joseph) O'Brien camp - let alone the remainder of the field - know that they'll be handing the race to Verry Elleegant and/or her ilk if they try to go as slow this year as they did the last. $41 7 - Verry Elleegant Arguably the best horse in Australia but I don't think she gets the distance and so is carrying a kg or two extra. Surely the rest of the field know they have to turn this into a staying contest, rather than a sit and sprint... They saw what happened in the Caulfield Cup with a soft middle section... It seemed self-evident last year as well though: it was as if people didn't want to win the Melbourne Cup, only not to lose it. I think Anthony Van Dyck comes out of the Caulfield Cup in a better position, but things could still fall Verry Elleegant's way. $17 8 - Mustajeer Last good run was in the Tancred last year, finishing 4 lengths behind Verry Elleegant and with a 3kg turnaround in his favour now (and 2kg wrt Avilius who finished just behind). Unfortunately he's shown absolutely nothing since. Difficult to see him threatening. $101 9 - Stratum Albion This is an interesting runner. Willie Mullins has brought across this style of older flat/hurdler a number of times: Max Dynamite most famously; Simenon another. Stratum Albion beat Nayef Road in his last flat race - over 3200m - and finished second to Enbihaar in the same, which is good form. Hasn't won the sole stakes race he's contested, but Max Dynamite had only won one ahead of his Cup debut/2nd placing: the Lonsdale Cup; i.e. the same race that Stratum Albion just contested. Max Dynamite similarly went directly into the Melbourne Cup from that race. I don't think Stratum Albion is quite of his standard but nor is he far off. We've also seen how runners like Prince Of Arran can improve in Australia; why not this guy? I don't mind him. I see him making a long, sustained run for home from 700-800m out, which will crush some spirits and cruel some chances. $26 10 - Dashing Willoughby I think Greg Carpenter rates the Lonsdale Cup. He's handicapped Dashing Willoughby on that performance, where he carried the same as Stratum Albion and finished a length behind. He carries 0.5kg less here. He contested the Caulfield Cup, setting the pace for much of the race and then fading badly. I don't know that that's indicative of his standard; certainly not what he's dished up overseas. He's tried the same style of run a few times and hopefully Michael Walker has learned a few lessons. His mount doesn't have the turn off foot to allow him to slow the tempo; he just needs to string the field out to be a shot. Said to have improved following his Caulfield performance and will prefer a bigger track, I'd think. $41 11 - Finche He'll be thereabouts, as always, but doesn't appear to have the class to triumph, no matter the type of race that gets served up. Find it unlikely that he'll be winning, but he'll be up there so can't be entirely discounted either. $21 12 - Prince Of Arran Two firsts, two seconds and two thirds in his Australian runs, ahead of a 4th in the Caulfield Cup just gone. Will be throwing his hat in the ring but the standard this year seems a little higher than his previous runs. $18 |
Here's my view (Part II):
13 - Surprise Baby Eye-catching run in last year's Cup: was totally unsuited by the pace but rocketed home from near last to finish inside 1 length. The wide barrier draw wasn't bad for a backmarker, but if he had a couple kilos less, or the race was run at a rate that would have tired those at the front, he would have been an unlucky second (to Il Paradiso) instead of 5th. There looks to be more pace in this year's edition and the closer barrier draw should knock 4 lengths or so off his journey, presuming he doesn't have to hook around everyone at the turn. The extra 1kg on his back this year shouldn't matter all that much. He'll still need a little luck for his style of running though: one Craig Williams ride to the standard of the 2019 Melbourne Cup, please. He's targeted this race with a prep to keep him very fresh. First up was too short over 1600m and still only just edged out by Humidor; the Turnbull Stakes he was unlucky and held up for half of the straight. He'll be third up into the Cup. His running style is giving me pause (along with the form of a few internationals) but he is very much a winning chance. $12 14 - King Of Leogrance Ran a cracking Adelaide Cup, then took 2 months of ahead of the Ramsden and was outrun to the ballot exemption there by Oceanex. Just the two lead-up runs with the first of these, the Turnbull Stakes, a forgive. Finished 1.5L behind Steel Prince in the Geelong Cup, second up, and gets 0.5kg back. $31 15 - Russian Camelot Tough to see him getting one back on his half-brother Sir Dragonet: 0.5kg better off in the Cup and he looks even better suited to the distance than Russian Camelot does. That he drew wide and had to work for a spot (running 2L further) is the only query on that. Top 10 finish very likely and is a place chance, so he's in the mix of jagging a win, say $15 16 - Steel Prince My first thought was that he's doing better than last year, but then I saw he was $61 in last year's race so that wasn't saying much. Didn't race in the Autumn on account of a stress fracture but seems to be in order now. Did very well in the Bart Cummings and then went on to win the Geelong Cup; not as great as Prince Of Arran's performance of last year, but still OK. Great stats at 2400m and above: since coming to Australia he's 6 wins and 4 placings from 11 starts. You'll know he'll put up a good fight. Has drawn wide and gone forward on a couple of occasions and I wouldn't be surprised to see that on Tuesday. With the right run he could threaten. $31 17 - The Chosen One 17th placing in last year's Cup but that can be discounted as, not only was the pace a joke, but - for some reason - they decided to run in the Hotham a couple days before, even though he was going to make the field. Picked up a 2nd in the Sydney Cup on a heavy track over Autumn, so the 3200m distance isn't a problem: only it was behind Etah James, so no great shakes there. The Herbert Power result was quite disappointing but it looks like a sit-and-sprint which will rarely flatter a backmarker at Caulfield (The Chosen One won it the year prior 3s faster). A 1L 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and he gets 0.5kg back on the winner Verry Ellegant. A bit of a lucky run where a gap opened at the right time but he somehow only ran 4m less than the winner overall. Great draw for a similar kind of thing to happen in this race. There are some timelines where he'd be in the mix but many more where he isn't. $31 18 - Ashrun The Hotham winner has a pretty good record in the Cup of recent times, but for Ashrun this Will mean 3 runs inside 2 weeks. Downdraft couldn't do it last year, finishing 22nd after winning his way into the field the Saturday prior. Ashrun won with 61kg in what surely could be called a gutbuster to the line. How does he back up from that? He'll have to work hard after drawing widest on Tuesday also, else be hooked to the rear and ridden for luck. Has the talent, but I think the circumstances to get into the field will knock off the gloss. Chance of placing if things go ideally, but too many queries for mine: $26. 19 - Warning Was a close finisher in the Turnbull Stakes, weaving through the field from the rear and earning a big ratings jump. From there he has a favourable 3.5kg turnaround in the Cup weights with respect to Verry Elleegant and Finche, and 2.5kg on Surprise Baby. Unfortunately, at Cup weights, he was a bit of a fail in the Caulfield Cup, finishing 5 lengths back. Arguably it was the wrong pace on the wrong track from the wrong position, but you would have hoped to see a little more when clear. Not sure that the Soft surface suited either which, if true, puts even better stock in his distance ability, winning the 2500m Victoria Derby on Soft a year ago. The Caulfield Cup performance wasn't unanticipated, with his trainer saying that Warning hates Caulfield, and his jockey stating that he'd be better suited by the bigger, flat track at Flemington. He's currently at $51 but I think he's maybe been misjudged a little. $26 20 - Etah James Too old. Not enough class. Too much weight. Needs a wet track. $101. 21 - Tiger Moth What the heck are we supposed to do with this?! Only had 4 career runs and 2 of those were in maidens... Horse Racing Ireland have given him a 113 rating, which is 4 higher than what Rekindling had at the time of his Cup victory (and what they gave him when he returned to Irish Racing afterward). Tiger Moth carriers 1kg more than Rekindling did in 2017. His rating mostly seems based on his narrow 2nd to Santiago in the Irish Derby and what that horse did surrounding it. Santiago had won the Queen's Vase 8 days beforehand and his trainers said it was a big call running him again so soon. The Derby itself, though held in driving rain was on a Good track and nearly 7 seconds slower than the 2019 revival. Next race, Santiago finished a couple of lengths behind Stradivarius: which is pretty meaningless as Stradivarius *usually* only just does enough to win. Nayef Road was 2nd, 1.25L ahead, and it's probably more accurate comparing to him: a 115-rater carrying 5.5kg more. Tiger Moth's next race was a win in a Group 3 which the Racing Post said was 3.5s slow, so - again - the 4L margin looks more impressive than it should. Tiger Moth's more of a punt than I like. If he was 50-51kg I think he could be a shot but - and I may look silly saying so - I think he's a place chance at best. $15. 22 - Oceanex Won the Andrew Ramsden in Autumn to get in; hasn't shown much since. Passed a vet check yesterday to make the field and has a gear change, using something for horses with hoof problems. Her trainers have said a soft track would be preferred and she's not going to get it. Besides that, Miami Bound flew away from her on that very surface in the Gold Cup and she's 0.5kg worse off on Tuesday. $51. 23 - Miami Bound Won the Oaks comfortably this time last year, then was brought back out in Autumn and was very ordinary. That form continued until her last race in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, where she was pretty great though unwanted in the betting. I think she needs a wet track and a fierce pace to be of any real chance. Will probably drop back for cover and then run on for luck in the straight. I would think that 3200m is beyond her best but she's excelled with her two goes at 2500m so far, so what do I know? $41 in markets and that seems about right, for mine. 24 - Persan Won the Bart Cummings, finishing 1L ahead of Sound who was just shaded by Ashrun in the Lexus. The weights between the races indicate that Persan is probably carrying an extra couple of kilograms. Very long campaign: the Cup will be his 11th run. On the plus side: 4 wins from 5 at Flemington and his best appear those over further (though this will be his first attempt at anything longer than 2500m he looks like he'll get the distance to me). His last run in the Bart Cummings was also very good: the previous two editions were both on a Good3 and this year's was over 2s faster *with* a last 600m split over 0.5s faster. The stats make it look like he favours wetter tracks, but the bulk of his good-track failures were prior to this season's "awakening". If he'd had one less victory he'd be on the second rung of "the system" (and given that all of them occured in the past 6 months from Maiden level and the handicapper has already admitted to getting his handicap weight wrong to begin with by penalising him 1kg, it's a blurry line here, per my thinking). Don't mind him for top 10 and should be shorter than his current price. Back in the 2018 thread it was a speculative factoid that horses who won the Bart Cummings and run the final 600m under 36s would finish top 5. Persan did it under 35s. $21 |
Summarising:
Prices were off the top of my head and somehow came out to a 107% market. |
1 Anthony Van Dyck 8.2
5 Sir Dragonet 8.2 7 Verry Elleegant 13.4 11 Finche 15.5 12 Prince Of Arran 10.3 13 Surprise Baby 9.5 15 Russian Camelot 13.4 18 Ashrun 17.4 21 Tiger Moth 8.2 My Selections with generated Odds. General rule of thumb is that when the TAB odds are lower then the above that creates a bet. But being the Cup normally all odds drift. |
TAB Odds are through which now narrows down the selections
1 Anthony Van Dyck 8.2 - 11.0 5 Sir Dragonet 8.2 - 12.2 7 Verry Elleegant 13.4 - 11.1 15 Russian Camelot 13.4 - 13.2 21 Tiger Moth 8.2 - 8.5 Good luck all |
King Leogrance was scratched this morning and Anthony Van Dyck broke down during the race, being euthanised afterwards.
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Just as an aside, and let me first say that I would not give 2 cents for any of the so called racing"experts" that abound. In Sunday's Courier mail there were 14 of these so called racing "experts" who gave their top 3 picks and their best roughie.
Not one of them had the winner. Besides trying to forecast the weather, they are in one of those strange jobs where you can be consistently wrong and not only keep your job but still have people who refer to their opinions. And no, I did not give the winner much of a chance. |
walkermac,
Thanks again even if we didn't get the winner. |
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