Hi Ianian

I assess the class of a race by the average prizemoney of the runners. You are correct about the 92% stat although I wouldn't necessarily not bet on them simply because they are dropping in class. They could still be an attractive bet and as I say, they don't have to be first past the post for you to win money.

HI PRIVATEER
 

I don’t know if I put a foot in both our mouths- but do you mean rising in class.
My post was a bit confusing.

Question
 

Hi Privateer -Back again -I don’t mean to pry- but this is my question.
Given a choice between backing a horse up in weight = same or + as a straight stat as a judge of a drop in class or same- or using the Sportsmans class figure D,S,U . which do you think would be better.Given that the weight rise would also cover field strength as well as a measure of class.

The demtell man - and theres more
 

I was wondering if you knew the other side of the coin as to what percentage of horses do rise in class.

Sorry for the delay Ianian.

I have never checked to see which percentage of horses rise (or drop) in class.

As a stand alone statistic up or down in class (IMHO) doesn't have a great deal of merit. However as class is generally determined by allocated weight, (and using my own selection parameters) given the choice,I'd rather a back a horse going UP in WEIGHT off a last start win than a horse going DOWN in WEIGHT from a last start win.

Cheers

Privateer

G'day to all.

I just read through the entire thread. I must admit that I laughed out loud a few times. Of course I did not reveal all of my methodologies back when I was posting regularly. I still won't. What I will say is that everyone wants a winner but if you want to make a profit from punting you need to understand that you don't necessarily need a winner to make that profit

I might have said this before but when analysing race form most punters make a basic error. They search the form for reasons as to why they should support a particular horse. I look for reasons to dismiss horses.

The thread also touched on my love of analysing trackwork times as a clue to a horses chances. There is a gold mine waiting for you inside the back pages of any weekend Sportsman. Now alone, they are useful but not infallible. Find a horse working well and when it fulfils other analytical requirements, hit it hard!

I should also come clean and reveal that I am a qualified intelligence analyst (retired now) and that certainly helped me sort out a few filters!

From this weeks Sportsman I have come up with my idea of good trackworkers. Follow these up over a few starts...Asterisked horses are racing tomorrow:

Sydney

Swift Shadow
Blazing Snitzel
Somepin Anypin
She Happened
Magita
Almighty Charge
Twinzig
Scarborough
Tamariz *
Fiveandahalfstar *
Emeritus
De Shamekh
Command More*
Runaway Star
There's Only One *
MidSummer Music*
Swift Succession
Manighar*

Melbourne

Le Bonsir*
Smokin Joey * (in Sydney)
Saturn Rock *
Hunger *

Pity it's a wet track in Sydney and the Melbourne races are at the Valley!

The Slipper? If you must...

1, 16, 12 , 4, 13. (I dislike favourites)

In the BMW I have actually been tipped Mawingo from 2 different sources.

Whatever you do guys, good luck.

Cheers

Privateer

Hi Privateer
 

On the basis of track work and the prevailing conditions tomorrow, it might pay to have a dabble on Mid Summer Music each-way.

Nice post!