Tattslotto has nothing to do with what we are talking about. Yes some people end up in front by playing tattslotto, but it is and always will be unbeatable. It is a random number generator that pays out 65% of what is put in. To compare is ludicrous.

Yes everybody has their unbeatable races. The ones they lose on. Nobody has a 100% strike rate. But to suggest that you should steer clear of a certain type of race is wrong. Every race is a different event. The Melbourne Cup of next year has nothing at all to do with this one that has just been run. It will have different horses running, all with different form lines.

There is value to be found in every race. Just because you can't find it, doesn't mean that nobody can.

I ask you this. If you had have laid every horse that you had backed in the Melbourne cup over the last 35 years, would you be in front? Either you answer yes, meaning that they are indeed beatable, or no, meaning that by backing them you would have won. Either way, you would have won on an "unbeatable" race.
How could this be possible?

Hi BJ, you are spot on here.

The prepost is not as accurate as the actual starting price for strike rate.

A far greater percentage of races are won by the top jockey and trainers, this has a lot to do with it. These types are backed in heavily to come out favourite in the top 4 prepost, unless there is something else outstanding.

One only has to look at the firmers from prepost to SP and see how heavily the popular guys are backed in. This erodes the value, but lifts the strike rate.

Now if the prepost allowed for popularity rather than ratings, it would be just as accurate and a lot less variation.

As it stands Joe Public gets it right more often.

Try backing the prepost faves that blow out - there's better value but less strike rate.

Chrome, your comment about pre-post favs that blow out, this is something I've been interested in for a while, but have no data to be able to formulate a plan. I have hard copies of WA TAB-FORM which is what I use for the PP prices, but so far have not found a source to archive the Top Fluc on horses that have run unplaced ....any ideas??? or do you have any data?

Partypooper,

TABFORM is not as accurate as the newspaper because they use GTX to formulate prepost prices. There are often massive differences in the top end favourites, but you could use it as a starting point.

I don't have longterm figures, but there has got to be value there.

Look at Youths Edge for example:

Prepost was $8.00 in the paper and won paying $11.40 on 3/11/2005

Yesterday Sherwood Forest $3.00 PP WON paying $3.80
Up'n'doing PP $2.25 won paying $3.40

The plunge money often is wrong.

Whether this is profitable longterm is somethng else.

I'm going to start keeping extensive records on this and see where it goes.

Without a single doubt i am way in front on the Melbourne Cups i have bet on.

I cant see how you can call it an "unbeatable" race just because you dont win on it,it is a very beatable race,i think what you mean is that it is not your type of race and not onethat suits your punting make.

I concentrate on very open races with big fields and longer priced favorites,in a way it is my specialty,i find them beatable.

I dont consider the races i dont bet on unbeatable races,i think there is no such thing,every race type is beatable if one knows the ins and outs of that race type.

What has lotto got to do with anything,there is no skill involved in lotto,its pure chance,itd be nice to win though,one of these days.

A lot of the bets i have get out to remarkable odds considering their pre post prices,$6 and $7 2nd favorites blowing out to 20's are fairly common and one memorable one for me a few months back was a horse that went from $13 pp to pay $76 uni tab.

Your findings will make interesting reading if you decide to post them.

Dale,

The best one I can remember was a horse called Bravery ( I will always remember this one ) in the mid 80's.
I used to go to every meeting I could get to in those days.
I worked a system out for my son who used to go the track with me.
It was based on prepost bet 2 horses a race using a type of martingale staking.
His first bet was $1 each nag.
The system ran meeting to meeting so basically the cycle never ended.
It was at Randwick and from memory one of those races where they were all first starters.
Bravery was $5 2nd or 3rd fav prepost.
My son was on a losing run from the last meeting and his bet on this race was $25 a horse so $50.
He came up to me and asked what he should do ( the old run of outs dirty underpants scenario ) as Bravery was 80/1 with the bookies and thought He should not bet it.
I made him place the bet.
You guessed it last on the bend came down the outside and won going away.
I will never forget it as long as I live the look on his face.
Interesting though the horse did ************ all after that, BUT this was an absolute fluke and I think the bookies are more right than they are wrong.
The person that RATED the race ( according to the majority on this forum was the office boy ) was correct.
Hey any office boys out there want a job.:rolleyes:

Cheers.

Kenchar,

I love stories like that.

There's nothing better than when your horse looks like it's lost all chance and it flashes down the outside to win. Even better when it's an outsider.

The euphoria of racing is second to none.

CP,

I suppose in a way I have got to agree, in those days it was actually fun going to the track talking the all the regulars, and watching the ones one learnt to watch.
I still remember Con Kafataris in the interstate ring as basically a snotty nose kid starting out when his old man was a rails bookie, look at him today.
Actually he gave me a bit of good advise one day and that was on Brisbane wednesday meetings look at the Bris prices coming out of Bris and if the Syd interstate books had a horse particularly short compared to the Bris price, get on.
He wasn't far wrong.
Today it's a job no emotion just a ****** screen and keyboard, but better than working or having a business.
I have to admit though when I backed Strasbourg the other day only $20 e/w I was probably yelling as much as you did when your millionare won on sat.
As cynical as I sound sometimes I guess some of the thrill is still inside me.

All the best.

Hey management you did it again must be costing you a fortune having that little gremlin monitoring every post.
I really can't see what is wrong with bloady when one can read newspapers and they print berstad.

Kenchar,

It's just an automated block consisting of swear words in general.