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-   -   Interesting Neurals? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23559)

michaelg 6th March 2012 08:43 PM

Enjay, it's possible I made a mistake with the Scone race. However the neurals often change, even after the running of the first race, and I think that's what happened.

enjay 6th March 2012 09:03 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Enjay, it's possible I made a mistake with the Scone race. However the neurals often change, even after the running of the first race, and I think that's what happened.


Thanks Michael.

I first looked at about 10am this morning and it was showing 4 horses.

However thanks for the idea, will keep an eye on it.

Regards
Enjay

michaelg 7th March 2012 07:40 AM

Enjay, I think I must have made a mistake. However, the Pakenham race was a good each-way result.

I remember some time ago that someone said a good system was to bet for a Place the shortest-priced horse in the pre-post market at every venue. But it died a slow death.

Out of interest, over the past two days I looked at the highest points for every venue with the neural default settings. There were 5 venues and all selections placed.

On Monday the selections were - the TAB divvies are shown next to them,

Geraldton 6/1 - $1.40
Warnambool 2/17 - $3.20

Tuesday
Scone 8/7 $1.70
Pakenham 5/4 - $1.60
Townsville 2/5 - $2.60

michaelg 7th March 2012 11:09 AM

Three races today. I've omitted Ascot because R&S haven't yet loaded the scratchings.

Wyong
1/ 3, 6, 12

Launceston
2/ 3, 7, 10

Eagle Farm
1/ 1, 9, 11


The top neural points for each venue are:

Ascot 5/2
Eagle Farm 1/1
Gawler 3/5
Launceston 2/3
Sandown 5/3
Wyong 7/7.

Because I'll bet them to Place they'll probably all lose.

michaelg 7th March 2012 11:22 AM

Correction - Sandown 5/3 is scratched. The selection is Sandown 5/4.

michaelg 7th March 2012 06:04 PM

Not a good day. The outlay was $9, the Tab return was $7.90, Betfair S.P was $8.92 and the Place was $6.90.

The losing race of Wyong R1 had half the field having their first career start. If I had omitted the race it would then have been a good day. Aah...hindsight!!!

michaelg 8th March 2012 10:49 AM

Today's races and selections are:

Ballarat
4/ 6, 11, 12

Rocky
4/ 1, 7, 8
5/ 3, 4, 5


I've also been testing a successful similar each-way system with Don Scott's market combined with Unitab's ratings. I've been betting them for the Win with Betfair S.P and for the Place with the NSW TAB. Even quinellas are showing a profit but unfortunately I haven't kept accurate records as the strike rate is low which does not (at the moment) really interest me.

I'll list them and hope the Curse does not get them.

Ballarat
3/ 1, 3, 8
5/ 1, 5, 10
6/ 1, 2, 3, 7
7/ 1, 2, 7
8/ 4, 8, 10

Bordertown
3/ 2, 3, 5

michaelg 8th March 2012 03:58 PM

A good day for the neural system.

From the three races the method struck two winners for a profit of $14.36 with betting the minimum of $5 on Betfair S.P.

Out of interest, if the profit was calculated by deducting 5% from the winner and not the gross profit then the day's profit would have been $12.85 and not $14.36 - this is by my calcs a 11% profit advantage.

Place betting also had a good day. The outlay was $9 and the NSW TAB return was $11.10 for a POT of 23%.


Hopefully the other system (Don Scott and Unitab) will also have a good day. I'll post the results when available.

michaelg 8th March 2012 06:56 PM

A bad day for the Don Scott/Unitab method.

I made a mistake with Ballarat R6. There were four selections which I mistakenly listed, it should have been a no-race. Just like the neural system it becomes a qualifying race only if there are three selections. This seems to the ideal amount for the method. And the Place bet seems to be superior to the Win. If I had omitted Ballarat R7 the outlay would have been $16 for a return of $20.70

michaelg 9th March 2012 11:07 AM

Today's selections for the neural method are (each-way bets):

Ararat
3/ 4, 5, 12
7/ 3, 4, 5

Cranbourne
2/ 6, 7, 8
8/ 2, 4, 8


D.Scott/Unitab system (Place only)

Ararat
2/ 1, 2, 3

Gosford
4/ 8, 12, 13

Ipswich
4/ 2, 5, 8

Orange
1/ 1, 3, 4
7/ 1, 5, 7


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