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-   -   TAB Favourites Plan (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=6706)

Bhagwan 7th January 2005 06:45 PM

The figures will be the same no matter what one does .
Why not stop at the first winner for the day ,then stop for the day.

I note a niumber of people dont have time to put in to the serious business of the punt
At the same time I dont have time to work for someone else ,so I dont.

But if you want to aim for a result in punting ,that`s what one has to do ,otherwise ,dont bet.


Cheers.

Bhagwan 7th January 2005 10:47 PM

Hi Shaun,
Good result .
Were using Win or Place betting.

BJ 8th January 2005 07:01 PM

Fav div...
 
Sorry but I think that any staking plan that doesn't reflect the price of the favourite is just not worth considering. If the market is so accurate (which I also believe) you must bet to return something. Eg bet $33.5 on a $3 favourite but only $25 on a $4 favourite. (Obviously to return $100).
The other way is to bet to make a profit, but this can be quite expensive when the price of the favourite gets too short.

I think your staking plan must reflect this. If your first doesn't get home, increase the return you are looking for.....

Etc... 1st bet to return $50
2nd bet to return $75
3rd bet to return $112.5

Please note this is not a researched percentage to increase stakes, just an example to back up my thoughts.......

Bhagwan 9th January 2005 06:20 AM

Hi BJ
The staking plan attached to this Favs plan ,is based on the min price we are targeting , if you havent already noted that .
It only needs a div. of $2.80 to make a profit any where in the sequence.
Any divs greater than that are a bonus.

BJ 9th January 2005 10:38 AM

Noted...
 
All I am saying is that the longer the price for the favourite, the less chance it has to win. If you were to have 9 $5 favourites in a row, the chances of losing all of them would be a lot greater than having 9 $2.8 favourites...

If you were to bet to return a figure, you would always know where you stood financially and your bet would always reflect your winning chance....

beton 10th January 2005 08:22 PM

Bhagwan
I have been off line a few days. I have looked at 470 races looking at $2.80 at the jump using 8 plus starters,betting the place only. The staking plan was 5% of a $500 bank stopping after two losses and resuming after a win. This proved to be a loser but i did notice that the bank went up to $700 in a slightly better place percentage area. The place percentage was about 56% and in the areas that the place % crept up to 60% the bank crept up.

On a place only i notice there is a better place percentage in the $2.50 plus range.

Can you please do a run on your data base using the following criteria
$2.5 plus at jump 8 to 12 starters. Stop at two losses and resume after a win (this saved 46 bets at a cost of 20 odd wins for a gain). I suspect that this will show a profit abeit little.

Thankyou in advance

Bhagwan 11th January 2005 12:49 AM

Answer 65% place but the LOT was -5% LOT
I cant make the program show stop & start perameters.

Have you tried compounding your bets by incresing after a looser until in profit.
Repeat bet if a placegetter does not recover all the O/S amount
E.g. increasing by say 1.33
10,13,18,24,31,42 ext.

OR 1.50
10,15,23,34,51,76 ext

beton 11th January 2005 08:40 PM

bhagwan
Thanks i will run an ongoing sample and a retrospective one. If this shows promise then i will pull a thousand odd random races.
Regards Beton

kayser32 17th January 2005 11:16 AM

RE TAB Favourites Meeting
 
Hi There
Just wondering for anyone thats following this system whether 1. Your betting across a range of meetings with the staking plan or 2. Your running the staking plan against 1 meeting.

Cheers

Bhagwan 21st January 2005 08:51 AM

It makes no difference which way one runs it , it pans out the same .

I use it down the board , which means carrying it across meeting to meeting in chronological order.


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