|
Wolfe and Top Of The Range finish 1-2 in the Coongy Cup. Wolfe consequently wins his way into the Caulfield Cup this weekend - where he's 7 rating points lower than anyone else. His winnings today also look to have bumped him up to around 53rd in the Order; Top Of The Range may have crept into 54th.
Racing this Saturday:
|
I am surprised at how low the current ranking is for a lot of those Caulfield cup runners. I guess they are avoiding any additional penalty.
|
 Constantinople
3yo B Colt
Galileo (IRE) - One Moment In Time (IRE) [By Danehill (USA)]
8s: 2-4-1
The two past winners of the Melbourne Cup have been Northern Hemisphere 4 years olds. Here to make it three in a row is Constantinople. Making it slightly tougher is a re-appraisal made by the handicapper. Following a review after last year's running, the benchmark for horses of this type was increased by one kilogram. Rekindling went into the 2017 Cup with a 116 BHA Performance Rating in his race prior. He carried 51.5kg. Cross Counter went into the 2018 Cup with a 114 BHA Performance Rating. He carried 50kg. Constantinople's last race was awarded a 110 rating and he will carry 52.5kg. Making a direct comparison to the two prior victors, their rating going into the race and what they actually carried, he should be handicapped 4-4.5kg less than he is. Per the handicapper, that equates to around 8-9 lengths over 3200m. That far back over the last two years would have seen him in 6th-9th position. Constantinople is a growing horse early in his career though so it's possible that he will continue to improve over his next couple of races. It may be useful to look at the trajectory of those who continued to compete in Europe while he was in quarantine. His final race was the Great Voltigeur Stakes a Group 2 for 3 year olds, held over 2400m (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TppLdv5FaGU). He finished a 1.75L second to Logician but the race wasn't rated terribly highly. The official British handicapper awarded a 115 to the winner: the second lowest figure to take out the race this century. More encouragingly, Logician would continue his undefeated series in his next race - the St Leger Stakes - and in track record time, to earn a 117 Rating. There's a little more to it than though... Handicapping is an art and the 117 was come to by looking at the ratings of the five previous winners. 117 was in the middle of that range: 114 to 120. While there is some argument that Logician should get the higher number (he broke the record after all) looking at his competitors, the distance they finished behind and the rating they had coming into the race, he could have been awarded as little as 111. The third placegetter Nayef Road was particularly well exposed, having his 14th career start. He had a steady series of 4 races rating between 103 and 105 mid-campaign. The last of these was in beating Constantinople in the Gordon Stakes: Constantinople's second-to-last UK race. Nayef Road then jumped up to a 108 rating in his next, by virtue of his competitiors, in finishing a 13 lengths last. So it's safe to say I have some doubts regarding his overseas form. He's yet to race further than 2400m but his profiles appear he'll be up to the task. His Dosage Profile is (5-6-25-12-0) with DI of 0.96 and CD of 0.08, looking pretty ideal for 3200m. His Conduit Mare Profile is (2-7-2-11-7) with Speed 9, Stamina 18, Conduit Index 0.48, and Triads (11-20-20). Perhaps lacking in some top-end speed there but again, no concerns about making the distance. There's every chance he's improved since coming to Australia and it's good that we'll get the opportunity to see if that's the case in the Caulfield Cup. With the information at hand though, I'm inclined to believe he finishes in the lower half of the Top 10. |
I was looking through to race/market earlier this week as I wanted to do some futures multi's for a bit of fun if they make it through to Cup day. Really the only runners standing out for me at the moment are Ispolini, Master of Reality, Raymond Tusk and Southern France. It's hard to get too excited about most others at the moment. I think a few runners have been overbet in the leadup such as surprise baby, constantinople and finche - I think these three will find it much harder cup day.
Going by the writeups you've completed so far it would appear you somewhat agree that there aren't many/any standouts at the moment - is it possible this year could be another boilover? |
Quote:
Doubt it. This happens every year. The only reason there was a boilover a few years ago was due to a major jockey mistake (arrogance) which took out more than half the field. https://www.racing.com/videos/2019-...5-melbourne-cup Fast forward to 3 mins and watch all the runners who were going to run on be taken out. I count 13 horses impacted and most were in the top chances. I agree its just ad luck and that riding at the back of the pack causes bad luck to have a higher impact but it was still the action which caused the boilover. I still think the winner will come this year in the top chances in the market. |
Boilover probably wasn't the right word, but I can picture the winner being in the $15 - $31 range this year for some reason. I just don't really like the current favourites that much and I can almost guarantee whatever wins the caulfield cup, if its a melb cup runner it will come in heavily but not win the melb cup.
|
Quote:
Yeah Within $31 is a contender as far as I am concerned. A winner at that price is within my expectations. |
Yeah, what UB said. No standouts just means more candidates in the $11-$31 range.
Here's todays results from Cup nominees:
|
The 3L rule will cut out a lot of those horses from the cup selection system.
Will be interesting to see the new table when you get time. |
Quote:
As a sneak peak: unless their odds change in the meantime, joining Ispolini, Finche and Surprise Baby on max points will be Constantinople, Mustajeer and Vow and Declare. |
Did we finally see the form franking race ahead of the Melbourne Cup?! No, not the Caulfield Cup! The Long Distance Cup held at Ascot overnight. Kew Gardens and Stradivarius were in a battle royale: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6g4bPQSAiM8. Stradivarius takes the lead and looks like he'll run away but Kew Gardens won't lie down, fights back and beats him in a photo.
An enduring criticism of Stradivarius - despite winning every contest since coming 2nd to Order of St George in the 2017 running of the very same race - is that he never puts his opposition away. 9 of those 10 victories were inside of two lengths; the biggest win just 3 lengths. While there's no shame in getting beaten by Stradivarius, the margin often doesn't give a fair indication of his combatants' efforts. Even in this race, he makes up the two lengths he's behind early on in the straight, but that strong move stops once he knows that he's hit the lead. Kew Gardens then pushes him along, they both draw away from the rest of the runners and either Stradivarius tires slightly when finally being stretched in this manner, else it's a lucky bob. This race was only moved to Ascot in 2011 so it's hard to do much in the way of time analysis, but it's the fastest since that inaugural running (which was on Good, whereas the track grading here was changed to Soft after this race). 3rd place was 5 lengths back , 4th 6 lengths adrift and the rest 10 lengths and beyond. So instead of looking at horses who went up against Stradivarius to determine form, how about looking at those in relation to Kew Gardens? Unfortunately Kew Gardens suffered an injury following the Coronation Cup and missed around 3 months of the European season. In that race he ran up to his career high, finishing 0.5L behind Defoe. He returned for the St Leger but his trainer Aidan O'Brien claimed that he "barely made it back" in time. Still, he finished ahead of Southern France (1.5L), Cross Counter (1.75L), Master of Reality (1.75L), Latrobe (3.25L) and Twilight Payment (4L); second only to Search For A Song, the 3yo filly the field let get out to a huge lead who ran on. Racing Post rated his run 5 points below that in the Coronation Cup and 6 below that in the Long Distance Cup, so while it might be a good race to compare the other runners to each other (all at equal weights) it might be inaccurate to compare them to Kew Gardens' better performances. Looking back at the Coronation Cup, Marmelo is worryingly a 9 length 5th - though there is a race comment that he was held up and 2400m is less than ideal for him. Following the winner Defoe though, he goes from the Coronation Cup to the Hardwicke Stakes. Racing Post give him just 1 rating point lower in that than for his previous. Who's finishing in third? It's yesterday's third placegetter in the Caulfield Cup at $16: Mirage Dancer. (....and an 8-length 6th is Southern France). So maybe the top-6 in the Caulfield Cup (who all finished within 2 lengths of the winner) are going pretty alright. They're all doing quite well per 'the system'. Only Mer de Glace (more than 5 career wins) and Mirage Dancer ($16 or greater in their previous race) lose any possible points. Their ability over distance could be a differentiating factor though: Finche we know about, Vow And Declare has convincingly won a Group 3000m earlier this year and Mustajeer won the Ebor Cup over 2800m. The rest haven't run beyond 2400m. |
Gold Mount out of the Cup. Found to be lame after the Caulfield Cup.
Today's Order of Entry is here, but he's still on the list in 29th position: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ry-as-at-oct-21. Mer de Glace has received a 1kg penalty. |
Here is the current standings in 'the system'.
Following the 1kg penalty Mer de Glace drops a point as he's no longer weighted less than what he carried in his preceding race. Third declarations are due next Monday.
|
Thanks for the updated table.
Looks fairly crowded up the top. That could mean a very competitive race this year but I think that is good. I prefer to dutch when there are a good number of chances as its more likely to be one of those horses. Will definitely be an interesting race this year. |
Quote:
Red Verdon26 is out with a leg injury. Following his 8th in the Caulfield Cup he was found to have superficial abrasions on 3 of his legs. They did a bone scan test to be safe and found a tiny fracture that could develop into something far worse. This is the second year running where he's come out for the Cup and had to be withdrawn through injury. Qafila27 is also not continuing on to the Cup per his stable, following his 17th placing at Caulfield. The final field is out for the Cox Plate:
The winner gets a ballot exemption for the Cup. Minor placegetters pass the first ballot clause. It's a shame Humidor didn't make the final field - Winx retires and he doesn't get a chance to win it with her gone! He'll likely contest the Moonee Valley Gold Cup instead: which is probably going to be easier to qualify via, to be honest. The Geelong Cup is tomorrow and the following nominees will be running:
|
*Only* 13 horses in the top 24 order of entry are actually within the top scoring levels in walkermac's table (i.e. scoring 10, 9 or 8). Obviously things can change a bit but if you want to be really strict and only look at horses within those scoring levels it helps eliminate half the field which is quite handy.
On top of that if you eliminate a few runners based on how they are weighted vs their rating and/or appear to be a little overbet then you can narrow things down quite a bit. For example if you look at the current Melb Cup futures a lot of the Caulfield Cup placegettors have had their prices brought right in. In addition Constantinople is now the clear fave when it has some solid hurdles infront of it in terms of weight vs rating which walkermac has highlighted. I find myself looking more at Vow and Declare and Mirage Dancer after the caulfield cup. |
Results from today's Geelong Cup (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQ1XfgvsESk):
Things went to script for Prince Of Arran with his connections publicly begging the handicapper for a weight penalty after taking out the race. Just 0.5kg will shift him up to around 29th; 1kg will leave him about 23rd in the Order. I think there's a chance of 4 or 5 of the current top 24 not going on to contest the Cup, so he'll be hoping for not only a penalty of some sort, but also some surety after third declarations next week. Cup nominees running this Saturday (Humidor and Mr Quickie are both also emergencies for the Cox Plate):
|
 Magic Wand
4yo B Filly
Galileo (IRE) - Prudenzia (IRE) [By Dansili (GB)]
18s: 2-7-2
Magic Wand certainly doesn't make a habit of winning, with only 2 victories across her 18 starts. Each of these were mid last year in sex and age-restricted company. 0 wins from 10 Group 1s makes for worrying reading. Though her trainer contends that's due to the quality of her opposition, rather than lack of ability on her part. She has certainly shown some good spirit in being amongst the placings for a lot of her runs. In her current campaign - a series of 7 races thus far that stretches back to March and will continue this weekend with the Cox Plate and thence to the Melbourne Cup - she's only missed a podium finish twice. In those misses she really bombed: pulling out of the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes and finishing 10 lengths adrift in the Dubai Sheema Classic. Magic Wand has just had the one qualifying performance: the 2018 G1 Prix Vermeille in which she came 2nd (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMdeXPTXwls). Showing some impressive speed in the straight, she was narrowly beaten by Kitesurf (who was up against Marmelo two races earlier, going down there by 2.75L while carrying 1.5kg less over 2800m. Kitesurf went on to the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes where Magical beat her by 5 lengths; arguably about square given that Kitesurf was carrying 3kg more). Though Magic Wand qualified via that race, she's pretty much coming because of her results in another: in the Irish Champion Stakes she finished 2.25L behind Magical at equal weights (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqdcNvXb1po). Magical has been a very consistent and high-achieving runner. She's not been far off stars Enable and Crystal Ocean this season, with her official handicap hovering around 122-123 across all runs. Given Magic Wand's official handicap going into the Champion Stakes was 111, connections would have been stoked with her performance. Perhaps just as much by also edging out Anthony Van Dyck with his 118 handicap (carrying 1.5kg less than the first two). Magic Wand's handicap was bumped up to 114 but if this race was indicative of future performances, then it may have been underestimated. She's currently weighted to her rating in the Cup, but this was probably a 121-performance: potentially leaving her with a very friendly handicap. It was a race over 2000m though, a distance where she may have no wins, but does hold a 6-from-6 place rate. At longer distances it's a little more spotty. Up to 2400m - the furthest she's raced - it's 1 win & 1 place from 6 attempts. Her record also seems to imply she's better on solid ground, so might bear watching given the forecast rain this weekend. The other race of hers worth examining is also over 2000m. In the Wolferton Stakes she finished just ahead of Latrobe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEkwgqn0NQQ. Though it's probably a little on the short side for him, it goes to show that he wouldn't want to give Magic Wand a headstart in the Cup. The winner of that race, Addeybb, just finished 2nd to Magical in the Champion Stakes last weekend, with Anthony Van Dyck in 3rd. The form is franked; but whether the form can be reproduced, is the question. Lending further weight to her trainer's argument that her poor win record is due to the quality of her opposition: in the US she had a couple of 2nd places to Bricks And Mortar, who looks to be a candidate for the American Horse of the Year. He's 5 wins from 5 starts this year, with 4 of those coming at Group 1 level. He's also rated at 120 in the Longines World's Best Racehorse Rankings, which makes him the second-highest-rated U.S.-based horse. His breeding rights were recently sold to Shadai Farm in Japan, who were looking to replace Deep Impact. In Magic Wand's most recent race against Bricks and Mortar she carried 1.5kg less (i.e. less than the 2kg mare's allowance) and finished within a length, the time within a second of the race record and the fastest for nearly 25 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io0PLy6rhzc Travel shouldn't be a bother. She's done a fair bit for her age: Ireland, England, France, USA 3 times, UAE and now to Australia. Her ability over the distance seems the real concern, given her performance record. Looking at her figures it appears that she should do fine though. Her Dosage Profile is (3-4-19-12-0) with DI 0.77 and CD of -0.05. That's all very similar to Marmelo. Her Conduit Mare Profile is (5-7-1-10-10), with Speed 12, Stamina 20, Index of 0.58 and Triads (13-18-21), which again is quite similar to Marmelo's only even more suited to further, given the points in the Professional category. She's currently languishing towards the bottom of the table per 'the system' though that will likely change this weekend. Magic Wand is going to remain a mare (so will miss a point there) but she'll definitely pick up some others. The field size will be greater than 10 (+1), she's currently at $14 in Cox Plate betting (if it stays under $16, as you'd expect after emergencies are ruled out, then that's another +1) and were she to do well on Saturday her Melbourne Cup price will definitely shorten from the current $41 (+1 if she finishes up <= $21; which is closer to her true odds IMO). Suddenly she's on 9 points - and is in the half of the field the winner is likely to come from (I'm not sure the system will be much help this year! :D ) I think she's a great prospect this weekend with her first up record, her past performances over the distance and how she could compare very favourably to others on her peak effort. The issue might again be the quality of her opposition.... Still, at this very moment, I'd have her among those whom I'm most interested in for the Cup. |
Prince Of Arran has been given a 1kg penalty after winning the Geelong Cup. I wonder what the result would have been had he not placed in last year's Melbourne Cup and been in danger of missing this field....?
The Geelong Cup winner has earned a weight penalty the past 13 years. And I know this because Racing Victoria have released the list, presumably as defense of the decision: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ners-since-1980 I think he was pretty lucky. It looks like they may have based it on his finish with respect to Red Cardinal and Red Galileo, neither of whom are going to be in the Cup. It wasn't based on True Self: despite her finishing within 0.2L, Prince of Arran now carries 1kg more (were True Self to make the Cup - and she almost definitely won't). The only other runners that were there and still in line to contest the Cup now (save for winning exemption through the Hotham Handicap on Saturday week) were Steel Prince (who looked to just treat it as a conditioning run back in 8th) and Muntahaa. Somehow - despite finishing last in each of his 4 races since the 2018 Melbourne Cup - Muntahaa is 25th in the Order. Hopefully they don't pay for third acceptance (due this Monday). If they don't drop out then surely the organisers must use their powers to turf him out themselves. Prince of Arran certainly deserves to be there ahead of him, though several others may feel aggrieved about it, having been leapt also. Prince of Arran now moved into 23rd in the Order of Entry, per the updated list: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ry-as-at-oct-24. |
Quote:
|
 Prince Of Arran
6yo B Gelding
Shirocco (GER) - Storming Sioux (GB) [By Storming Home (GB)]
37s: 6-7-5
Though Prince Of Arran is returning for the Cup this year, this is the first time I've written a profile on him. I was pressed for time on Cup-eve last year and he was one of the few I skipped. I figured that he'd be too fatigued from the Hotham Handicap win that got him into the field to do well. He, of course, went on to run third. I missed picking him as a candidate, but the all-powerful 'system' had him right up there.... He finished two lengths behind Marmelo in 2018, with Cross Counter a further length in front. There was 2kg officially between Marmelo's and Prince Of Arran's handicaps but Hugh Bowman, jockey of the former, weighed one kilo over - so there was really a 3kg discrepancy. Following the Prince's penalty from the Geelong Cup victory yesterday (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OlSi8tajzw), the weight difference will be 2kg again this year. I've written about how it appears that Marmelo is doing just as well as he was last year, so the question with regards to Prince Of Arran is: has he gotten four lengths better? (the two lengths he lost by + the 1kg extra he'll be carrying this year compared to Marmelo). The easy - but unhelpful - answer is: well, he won't have to run 2500m three days before the Cup this time! So: maybe. Probably. Ummm...surely? His final race before leaving for Australia last year was in the Heritage Handicap. Per the British Handicapping Authority he ran a 111 BHA Performance Figure while having a 107 rating. Following his Australian success he then galloped across the globe, in Hong Kong and the UAE before returning to the UK. They bumped him up to a 110 rating on arrival but his two performances there were adjudged to be at 108 level (plus a shocker on resuming which can be discounted). Long story short: they think he's ballpark of where he was last year: somewhere between 3 points better by rating, and 3 points worse than his peak performance. In Australia last season he got a 104 rating for the Herbert Power and Hotham Handicap and a 105 in the Cup. Following the Geelong Cup it looks like his interim handicap has been raised to 108. So they reckon he's 3 points better than he was here last year - only they rated him 3 points lower than his UK rating to begin with. He's certainly seemed to have shown his best on Australian tracks (5s:2w-3p). He's contested the Herbert Power both years, so some comparison can be made. This year (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnQEfIIoKH4) with 58kg he ran 2435m in 2'27.61s, with his last 3 200m sectionals in 12.06s, 11.64s, and 12.36s. Last year (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4GojR1Bxew) he carried 1kg less and ran 2433m in 2'26.77s, with the last 3 sectionals in 11.60s, 11.37s, 11.56s. Last year's performance looks better, but perhaps it was more due to how the race unfolded, rather than a direct measure of performance... There are a few concerning stats from his profile: 0 wins from 11 Group 1 and Group 2 starts; has only won on Good, or All-Weather back in 2015/16; has had 11 starts in fields greater than 13 for no wins and only 3 placings. All his wins have been at low prices: the highest was $8 all the rest were under $5. On the positive side: he does have a decent record at 3200m, with 1 win and 4 placings from 9 starts. Looking at some pedigree stuff, his Dosage Profile is (2-0-7-4-1) with DI 0.65 and CD -0.14. No concerns with distance; he'd be suited to even longer. His Conduit Mare Profile is (5-5-3-13-6) with Speed 10, Stamina 19, Index 0.64 and Triads (13-21-22). Again, no problems with the distance though only Ethereal has won the Cup this century with a higher Stamina number. There's a couple of other winners whom he looks quite alike though: Makybe Diva, has a very similar profile, though more Speed points; and Media Puzzle is closer still. Interestingly Media Puzzle did the Geelong Cup-Melbourne Cup double in 2002. He was penalised 1.5kg for his course record win and carried 52.5kg in the Melbourne Cup. I'd feel a little more confident if Prince Of Arran was carrying the same. I think he'll make a good account of himself, but for mine, he's carrying a little too much and he's also lacking some brilliant speed (The Chosen One easily ran him down in the shorter Caulfield straight in the Herbert Power; though the danger of that happening again will depend on the make-up of the final field). In any case, I think those two things combined just knock him out of winning contention. Will almost definitely finish top-10 and likely higher rather than lower. |
Really enjoying this thread walkermac.
Best on here ATM by a very long way. Top job. |
Cheers jose.
 Mustajeer
6yo B Gelding
Medicean (GB) - Qelaan (USA) [By Dynaformer (USA)]
20s: 4-3-3
Mustajeer won this year's renewal of the Ebor Handicap and it was a particularly strong race, given that the prizemoney had been increased to 1 million pounds. It was also the fastest run race since 1998, though the distance does seem to shuffle about slightly from year-to-year.
He was 10th in betting at $17, beating two at $26. Also in the large field of 22 runners were Melbourne Cup nominees Red Galileo42, Raymond Tusk26, True Self38, Prince Of Arran23 and Raheen House39. Mustajeer ran from barrier 2 and stuck to the fence in a slightly worse than midfield position. On entering the straight, the field switched to the outside rail and Mustajeer basically had everyone move out of his way so that he could run on: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5gkgBmRKAE. It was a charmed ride where he likely took the shortest route of the field. Consequently others were given more credit for their runs following the race. Foremost among these: Raymond Tusk who had a particularly rough time of it but finished well in 4th.
Leading up to the Ebor, Mustajeer had some pretty ordinary looking runs up against Magical, finishing 12 lengths behind in each. Both races were over 2000m though and he seemed to fare far better once the distance got up to the 2800m mark.
The first of these was the Vintage Crop stakes: https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1122606753957470208. Mustajeer edges ahead of Master of Reality who then fights back to win by a neck. Southern France is 0.75L further back in 3rd position. Mustajeer was carrying 0.5kg more than both here, whereas he will carry 0.5kg less in the Cup. It should be noted though that Master of Reality and Southern France were both 1st up after 5-6 months off. Twilight Payment was also safely held, two lengths adrift with no weight change between this and the Cup.
Twilight Payment switched it up in their next tussle over 2800m, winning the Curragh Cup: https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1144678404891058181. Again at level weights (62kg!), Mustajeer this time finished a 3.5L 5th. The difference may have been in the track surface with a Good here, and a Yielding in the other - Twilight Payment looks to prefer the former and perhaps Mustajeer the latter. Other notables in the same race were Latrobe (2nd nk) and Southern France (4th 3.25L).
Australian Bloodstock has bought him and were reported as saying he was their best Caulfield Cup chance. He went on to finish there a 1.8L 6th. From the start he drifted back towards the rear, as is his wont. Those running on from the rear looked to have some advantage with the 1st and 2nd finishers in 15th and 17th position for much of the race, before they came wide and made their move after the 800m. Mustajeer could have made the same move as that pair (Mer de Glace and Vow And Declare) but instead was held up by them and couldn't get going until there was too much left to do. Constantinople had pretty much the same chequered run and is the $7 Cup favourite. Admittedly he was effected slightly more and managed to quickly put half a length on Mustajeer (but then couldn't pull any further away). Mustajeer is at $19 and there isn't that much between the two. I reckon Constantinople is unders...
I don't think that Mustajeer is overs. I don't like how he tends to race at the rear, particularly given his figures. His Conduit Mare Profile is (5-6-5-9-5), Speed = 11, Stamina = 14, Index = 0.88 and Triads of (16-20-19). Only Delta Blues and Americain have won this century with a Stamina figure that low. He's not going to race like Delta Blues did; maybe he has more of a(n Americain) chance if the track is Slow. In either case, both of those winners had better Brilliant figures to counter that lower Stamina. Also, the only winner this century with a higher Conduit Mare Index was Prince of Penzance (though he does tie with Americain: who had 4 straight victories leading into the Cup and had already raced at 3000m or longer 8 times; so little distance concerns there).
He doesn't really pique my interest. While the race may fall into his lap - like the Ebor did - I feel that there are better candidates to take it out. $21 seems about right to me. |
Today's results from Cup nominees:
Will Hunting Horn get a penalty for this Melbourne Cup win? He'd hope not, given that he's already 20th in the Order of Entry. He's got an Irish handicap of 115; Downdraft has one of 110. Downdraft carried 0.5kg more at set weights, so Hunting Horn should have won by more than he actually did (putting aside the slow pace of the race, the short straight, etc). They've given that pair 109 and 106 ratings locally. Mr Quickie (rated at 108 going into the race) was reported to either spell or go to the Mackinnon Stakes after his Moonee Valley Gold Cup run. His trainer has ruled him out of the Melbourne Cup; they don't think he can stay. Master Of Wine passes the first ballot clause but won't be inside the current Top 50. Third declarations must be made by 10am on Monday. |
 Hunting Horn
4yo B Horse
Camelot (GB) - Mora Bai (IRE) [By Indian Ridge (IRE)]
22s: 3-2-5
Hunting Horn took out yesterday's Moonee Valley Gold Cup. The track record was set last year by Ventura Storm; he came 10th in last year's Melbourne Cup. Who Shot Thebarman won in 2017; scratched from Cup. Grand Marshal won in 2016; 11th in Cup. The United States in 2015; 14th in Cup. There are actually Melbourne Cup systems that include "did not win the Moonee Valley Cup" as a filter. Aspro's Melbourne Cup System has been posted to Racing & Sports each year: Rule 1 - List any Cup acceptor placed in either the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes (now irrelevant moved to finals day) Rule 2 - List any Cup acceptor placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup Rule 3 - List any acceptor who was placed 1-2-3 in the Melbourne Cup at their last cup run Rule 4 - List the Lexus Stakes winner Rule 5 - Delete any horse whose last run in the Melbourne Cup was an unplaced run. Rule 6 - Delete any horse who is aged 3yo or 7yo or older. That system hasn't done so well the last couple of years as it's skewed to determine the best local contenders, omitting the foreign raiders debuting in the Cup itself. This year only Downdraft would qualify through the race - and then only if they're lucky with acceptances falling their way. Hunting Horn has very much been Magic Wand's shadow. Most often competing on the same program, if not contesting the same race; as was the case yesterday when Magic Wand was also at the Valley and finished 4th in the Cox Plate. Hunting Horn tends to go in 2400m races with Magic Wand around 2000m. When they have gone head-to-head, Magic Wand has the supremacy in the shorter distances and Hunting Horn the longer: 11Aug - 2000m: Magic Wand - 2nd 2.25L, Hunting Horn - 8th 11L 14Sep - 2000m: Magic Wand - 2nd 2.25L, Hunting Horn - 8th 7.45L 11May - 2200m: Magic Wand - 3rd 0.75L, Hunting Horn - 4th 1L 27Jul - 2400m: Hunting Horn - 5th 9.55L, Magic Wand - 11th 50.45L 30Mar - 2400m: Hunting Horn - 4th 10.25L, Magic Wand - 5th 10.35L Hunting Horn carried 1.5kg extra in all bar the last, which was a 2kg difference. Yesterday's run was the furthest he's travelled. His two previous wins were over the 2000m. While not winning over 2400m he had an OK record: 0 wins and 4 places from 8 starts. It was also the 10th run of his current campaign, which stretches all the way back to January of this year. He hadn't won any of his preceding 14 races, though 11 of these were at Group 1 level . The trick is to put Ryan Moore aboard: he's the only jockey to ever win on him (8 starts for 3 wins and 3 places). His Dosage Profile is (2-13-12-8-1) with DI 1.4 and CD 0.19, so about 3000m looks ideal there. His Conduit Mare Profile is (5-4-3-8-8) with Speed 9, Stamina 16, Index 0.63, and Triads (12-15-19). Which looks suited to around about the same. Yesterday was a very slow-run race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hCB3c7XjWU. It was 5 seconds slower than Ventura Storm's effort of 2018 (who was also in the field this year). What wasn't slow was the last 600m, which was nearly 2 seconds quicker than 2018. Given the pace of the race, it says very little about these horses' staying ability. With no-one making a move from the rear until it's too late, it was pretty much just a contest between the first four runners. Though Hunting Horn has a 109 Australian rating, the Irish official ratings have him at 115. Shraaoh (107), Mr Quickie (108) and Ventura Storm (102) were going to do it pretty tough - particularly when Hunting Horn carried as much or up to 1kg less than all of these! I'd hope to have seen a Mer de Glace level of acceleration with that kind of discrepancy. Since the Moonee Valley Gold Cup is a useless form guide, how about some other races? Discounting anything under 2400m... If the Chester Vase Stakes hadn't happened so long ago (May 2018, as a 3yo) it would have been helpful. In that race over 2400m he was 3L behind Dee Ex Bee and 0.5L in front of Ispolini. Hunting Horn and Ispolini are currently at equal weights in the Cup, but any penalty for yesterday's win will be announced tomorrow. I'll doubt he'll get anything. Earlier this year he was in the Amir Trophy in Doha against Raymond Tusk, beating him by a length: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHXVKFhY7Ec. He outpaces Raymond Tusk in the straight - who did a little more work in his run - but the latter will get 1kg back in the Cup. A month after that he and Magic Wand were up against each other in the Dubai Sheema Classic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOnucwtMz1Y. Hunting Horn edges out Magic Wand despite being a rank outsider, carrying 2kg more and less suited to the distance. Magic Wand was first up though. They were both 10 lengths back from Old Persian, who left them in his dust with the 300m to go. This is a long post, not so much cause there's plenty to say, moreso that there isn't a whole lot of substance to go on. I'm inclined to think that Hunting Horn is a couple of classes below Europe's top runners and that there's a couple of others in the Cup field who have accounted themselves against those better. He races forward, should get the distance but - with that 55kg weight (so far) - I'd hope that he was a bit more accomplished than having just 3 wins from 22: none of those at Group 1 level and his only one at Group 2 level being in an extremely week race. I guesstimate that he finishes somewhere between 10th and 15th. |
Third acceptances were due this morning for Melbourne Cup nominees. 42 remain in the hunt to be among the 24 that line up on racing day. The current Order of Entry is available here: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ry-as-at-oct-28
Final acceptances will be taken this Saturday and then the top 35 of those remaining will undergo a vet check to see if they'll be right to race on the following Tuesday. Dropping out at this stage are: ALFARRIS (FR) ATTENTION RUN (GER) AVILIUS (GB) BIG DUKE (IRE) ETYMOLOGY GLORY DAYS (NZ) HOMESMAN (USA) HUMIDOR (NZ) KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE) MASTER OF WINE (GER) MR QUICKIE RED CARDINAL (IRE) SHRAAOH (IRE) SUPERNOVA (GB) TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ) VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) WOLFE (JPN) YUCATAN (IRE) There are two remaining chances for those currently aside the Top 24 (asides from those above them dropping out through illness/injury). The first of these is Wednesday's Bendigo Cup. There's a chance to earn a penalty or earn enough prizemoney to leap ahead of others. Those Cup nominees who have accepted for the race: ANGEL OF TRUTH12 BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)37 - needs 2kg penalty PATRICK ERIN (NZ)28 - needs 0.5kg penalty RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)30 - needs 1kg penalty SULLY (NZ)41 - needs 3.5kg penalty Acceptances for this race were due ahead of the release of the new Order of Entry. The final chance for nominees is the Hotham Handicap/Lexus Stakes this Saturday, where the winner will receive the final ballot exemption. 28 have nominated for the race so far. Prizemoney for 2nd or worse won't be enough for those on the same handicap as 24th-placed Neufbosc to progress. It will be win and you're in. Nominations close for this race on Wednesday at noon. Of those who have accepted for the Ballarat Cup: Brimham Rocks and Patrick Erin have already nominated (as has Angel of Truth, who is safely in the field and will probably just run at Ballarat for a tune-up if at all). Neither Raheen House or Sully are yet to nominate. Sully will have to run in the Hotham and cop the Ballarat Cup scratching fee; perhaps Raheen House will try their luck at Ballarat given the smaller task. Only 18 will make the final field of the Hotham, so that may make some decisions. There's only 4 hours between acceptances for the Hotham being announced and the start of the Ballarat Cup. As anticipated, Hunting Horn did not receive a penalty for his win in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Nor did Master of Wine for his first ballot clause passing-win in the Tattersalls Cup. |
Here's the current standings in 'the system'. The dropouts didn't make it any easier. The highest score to drop out was the lowermost '8' Master Of Wine... Only 5 nominees with a Conduit Mare Stamina figure of 17 remain (10 of the past 11 winners) in the final 24 starters so far.
|
walkermac,
Any chance you can add another column at the start which states your thoughts on whether the horse is weighted fairly or not compared to the horse ratings as you posted some time ago? Hope that isn't too much of a stuff around for you, and if it is then dont worry about it but just thought it may be handy. Cheers |
Quote:
|
 Mer De Glace
4yo B/BR Horse
Rulership (JPN) - Glacier Blue (JPN) [By Sunday Silence (USA)]
18s: 8-2-5
Mer De Glace is on a streak of 6 victories that extends back to the start of the year and culminated in the Caulfield Cup. Caulfield Cup winners don't have a great record in the Melbourne Cup: only 11 horses have done the double in history. The last of these was Ethereal in 2001. He's the current second favourite with perhaps the biggest question mark being his aptitude at the Cup distance. His 2400m Caulfield Cup win was actually the furthest distance over which he's competed. The bulk of his career, since turning 3, has been over either 2000m or 2200m. Per his Dosage Profile (7-0-21-2-0), DI (1.4) and CD (0.4); he might be pushing it to get the distance. That looks like 2400m is ideal. His Conduit Mare Profile is (3-5-7-11-2) with Speed 8, Stamina 13, Index 0.82 and Triads (15-23-20). That looks around 2000m is ideal. That Stamina figure is lower than any other winner this century. There have been 26 runners with a figure of 13, they have an average finishing position of 14th with a best finish of 2nd (Yippyio in 2000). It's not so cut and dried though: there have been 4 placegetters with a Stamina figure even lower. One was Criterion in 2015, though that was an atypical sit and sprint dodgem derby. Another was Jardine's Lookout in 2003 4 lengths back in 3rd. And the final two were both from 2006, curiously also both with low Speed figures: Pop Rock (an omen?) and nearly 5 lengths back Maybe Better. I think the race type and field quality has moved on from the early-mid 2000s so I hold concerns over the distance. His profile is very similar to that of Admire Rakti, who also won the Caulfield Cup - and had a sad end following the 2014 Melbourne Cup.... They both have a very low figure for the Professional category (i.e. the rightmost) in the Conduit Mare Profile. Only 9 of the 400+ horses who have contested the Cup this century have had a figure of 2 or lower. The best finish was 5th - and all of them had a Speed figure of at least 10 to counteract that somewhat. All that being said: his Caulfield Cup win was pretty good. No other runner covered as much ground as he did, but he still powers comfortably to the lead in the straight and holds off the rest of the field: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esSOa1T_6M4. You can watch more vision of him here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6CRUmvHl-k. Looking a little closer, his Kokura Kinen run was the 4th slowest in the past 17 years. Both his Naruo Kinen and Niigata Kinen are of middling time. ...though not many of those runners compete outside of Japan to lend much in the way of comparison. The 2nd placegetter in the Niigata Kinen, finishing 0.3L behind Mer De Glace, just ran the Group 1 Autumn Tenno Sho this past weekend and got smashed by 14 lengths. The horses we've tended to get here in Australia have contested (and generally done better) at the Tenno Sho. Mer De Glace's only Group 1 race is the Caulfield Cup, with all his other blacktype at Group 3 level. Track surface is another area of concern. He'll be hoping it stays dry: only one run on Soft and it was no good. His sire has pretty abysmal wet weather stats for his offspring also. On a Good track Mer De Glace is 1w-1p/4s. On Firm is where he's been smashing it: 7w-6p/13s. Damien Lane will be his jockey after striking up a profitable relationship with the horse (2w/2 for around $2million dollars prizemoney in Japan) and winning the trust of his trainer, who acquiesced to Lane's plea to bring Mer De Glace to Australia. He'll be well-rested for the Cup as he picked up a 10 meeting suspension for his ride at Caulfield, shifting in when not clear of another horse (Sound was badly effected). If Mer De Glace was first up in the Cup I wouldn't rate him highly. His performance in the Caulfield Cup is the only thing lending me caution. Doing the double seems a particularly difficult ask for him though. He's carrying just 1.5kg less than Cross Counter and is rated 6-9 points lower, with those points earned at a distance to which he appears far better suited. I just can't have him among my top picks. I may end up looking silly(er) but I'm even inclined to think that he's more likely to finish in the 2nd half of the field than the first. |
 Raymond Tusk
4yo B Horse
High Chaparral (IRE) - Dancing Shoes (IRE) [By Danehill (USA)]
12s: 3-3-1
Raymond Tusk is a character in the US TV Series House of Cards, a billionaire industrialist with an interest in nuclear power. Is his horse namesake about to go thermonuclear in the Melbourne Cup?
He's a syndicated horse whose company decided to steer towards the Cup after fielding plenty of offers to purchase from Australian groups. They figured that Raymond Tusk must have something going for him, so elected to take him to Melbourne themselves. They made a tactical pass on the Caulfield Cup, trusting that natural attrition would be enough to scrape into the field. In the end, they're well in; currently lying at 21st in the Order of Entry.
Raymond Tusk has the 3rd lowest eligible winnings from those comprising the Top 24. The bulk of that prizemoney is from his sole Group-level win: in Milan. That was also his last victory - just 5 races ago - but a year and a day ago today. There were only 5 horses in the race and it wasn't a comprehensive victory: the first 3 finishing within 1 length. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrw7m6VvxZc. I'm not one for analysing a horse's action, but....that's a pretty impressive action he has.... It's hard to judge the quality of the race. The two placegetters were German horses with current ratings of 106 (+2.5kg) and 111 (+1kg). Raymond Tusk was a 3 year old and they were 1-2 years older. Third hasn't raced since; second finished 2nd in two Listed races in August.
He had a few months off before resuming in the Amir Trophy in Doha, which also featured Hunting Horn: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHXVKFhY7Ec. Held over 2400m, Raymond Tusk finished 1.25L behind Hunting Horn at level weights; he'll carry 1kg less in the Cup. As noted in Hunting Horn's profile, he ran past Raymond Tusk easily enough in the straight.
Raymond Tusk returned to English shores and tried his luck in Group 1 company, finishing 2nd to Dee Ex Bee (3.25L) and then 3rd to Crystal Ocean (5L). In the former race, Raymond Tusk only lost contact in the last furlong of the 2 miles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTB83JxeATo. Dee Ex Bee also went on to win his next race, then finish 2nd to Stradivarius in his following three Group 1s, a series of runs which also saw his rating go up 4 points. RT carried 2.5kg more than the winner in their race, so it was an impressive run all round.
In the second race Raymond Tusk went back to 2400m and Crystal Ocean put on a bit of a clinic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3hekfPUxHo. It was a deserved margin given the $1.20 starting price, and Raymond Tusk couldn't stay with him for the last 2 furlongs.
Next race was the 4000m Gold Cup: not only his longest contested distance, but also his first encounter with a Soft track. He finished 7th of 11, 8 lengths adrift: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB69t2__p9w. 7L ahead of him were fellow Melbourne Cup candidates Master of Reality and Cross Counter; though he will get back 1.5kg and 3.5kg respectively. I'm not sure his high knee lift running style would be suited to wet tracks either.... That performance was pretty much expected though, per a stable spokesman ahead of the race: "He is still 6lb short of Stradivarius. If somebody said to me he will finish within six lengths of him, I would take that now, because that might be third - but it could easily be sixth." After the race they agreed that he didn't stay out the trip and his opposition were too classy.
His current odds - now $18! - are pretty much due to his Ebor Cup results. The stable said the 2800m was far more suitable and his performance bore that out: drawn the carpark he raced towards the rear, then was held up in the straight from last position, but still ended up a 2-length 4th. He definitely had the best run in the race, in arguably the strongest Ebor run ever and in the fastest time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5gkgBmRKAE.
In the Melbourne Cup he gets 1.5kg back from Red Galileo (2nd 0.75L) and 2.5kg back from Mustajeer (1st). Prince Of Arran (+0.5kg) and Raheen House (-1kg) were well held and won't be weighted too dissimilar in the Cup. True Self got a friendly handicap though, only finishing 1 length further back and 2kg better off were he to win his way through the Hotham Handicap.
The stable reckoned 2800m was more his distance. Per his pedigree stats, his Dosage Profile is (3-8-34-4-1) with DI 1.27 and CD 0.16. That says around 3100m. His Conduit Mare Profile is (6-8-1-12-5) with Speed 14, Stamina 17, Index 0.91 and Triads (15-21-18). Say, around 2600m? 14 is the highest Speed figure left in the Cup field, though he shares that mark with Rostropovich, Ispolini and Neufbosc. His Stamina figure hits that magic number 17...
I don't mind him. He carries 1kg less than his rating says that he should. He meets many of those he's gone up against lately better at the weights. He has that 17 Stamina, survived my rejigged pedigree filtering, and has sighted the Cup distance. I would however, want him to be on a dry track and to be drawn well inside for a cushy run closer to the speed. His good Ebor run was 1st up after a 4 month spell and it's been just over 2 months since then, so that break ahead of the Cup shouldn't be too much of a problem. He does seem to be a just a smidge below the real high-flyers though and would need some things to go his way. Should include in trifectas and first fours, to my mind. |
 Vow And Declare
4yo CH Gelding
Declaration of War (USA) - Geblitzt (AUS) [By Testa Rossa (AUS)]
12s: 3-3-2
The Great Australian Hope! Currently the 4th favourite at $12. Is patriotism shortening his odds? Or is he as genuine a chance as the price implies? Vow And Declare first announced himself in the Queenland Derby, finishing within a length of Mr Quickie at odds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ckl403bn-I. His rating rocketed from 73 to 85 - and then sped further to 99 following his performance as favourite in taking out the Tattersall's Cup, beating second placegetter Big Duke by 3 lengths as he sped down the straight: http://mediaatc.skyracing.com.au/Ra...622EAFR06_V.mp4 That finished his Winter campaign and he resumed 3 months later in the Turnbull Stakes. He finished a close 4th (1.7L): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zAgHvA4stE with Kings Will Dream taking the victory and Finche just 0.1 lengths behind. Though only over 2000m, Vow And Declare will get back 1.5kg over Finche - who otherwise held him comfortably in the straight. Vow And Declare's final race ahead of the big dance was the Caulfield Cup, where he ran on from worse than midfield to take out second position, 1 length behind Mer De Glace and just ahead of Mirage Dancer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkC7OfGgUbc. Swooping late he ran the fastest final 200m of the race, which surely must augur well for the 3200m distance. Come Cup-eve his rating is 102. ....but he must carry 2.5kg greater than his rating would suggest (when compared to Cross Counter). On the positive side: he gets 1kg back vs Mer De Glace. Per his Dosage Profile of (6-8-6-0-0), DI of 5.67 and CD of 1, he's not suited to long journeys at all. His Conduit Mare Profile again indicates that he's suited to far shorter: (5-8-2-9-5) with Speed 13, Stamina 14, Index 0.95 and Triads (15-19-16). No other horse has won a Melbourne Cup with an Index so high this century (the closest is Prince of Penzance with 0.92). Criterion in "crazy 2015" is the only horse to place this century with a Speed figure greater than Stamina. Only two others have placed with a 1 point discrepancy between the two: Jardines Lookout and Maybe Better were both 4+ length 3rds. Of course all this pedigree stuff should be discounted when presented with evidence to the contrary and there's every indication thus far that Vow And Declare will make the distance comfortably. ...but how good is Big Duke now? That is: the horse he beat into 2nd place over 3000m. Big Duke has required a vet certificate to race again in each of his last two runs. That can't lend much confidence.... As much as I'd like Vow And Declare to be a real prospect, I think it more likely that he'll be scraping into the top 10. |
I hadn't mentioned it earlier as I was waiting for further information, but there were some concerns regarding the fitness of Marmelo and Ispolini. They were sent for scans when soreness was detected by a Racing Victoria vet. The results of those scans were subsequently forwarded to their trainers - presumably so they could make some hard decisions or undertake further investigation prior to the "official" vet checks of the top Cup candidates this weekend.
I can understand that Racing Victoria are especially cautious regarding the physical capabilities of each potential runner. I think I remember reading that only one of the past 5 runnings of the Melbourne Cup hasn't had a runner that sadly died during or immediately after the race. If they can prevent such an occurence happening again by being hyper-viligant with the physical well-being of candidates, then I am all for it. If it's found to be of benefit, I would hope such vigilance is extended to every race on the calendar. The issue is of particular relevance now given the recently publicised results of the ABC's investigation into retired horses and the increasing anti-Cup sentiment from the general public. I have to admit: I have huge ethical concerns regarding the whole racehorse industry. I honestly would much prefer to be talking about humans participating in these races, than horses from whom we can't clearly ascertain whether they want to be involved or not. I don't have a background with horses at all and I'm mostly in love with the amount of data available. I've certainly learnt that horses are incredible athletes along the way, but the post-race future (or even pre-race existence) of thoroughbred horses is an issue that I'm not at all comfortable with. That being said, I am very pleased to read of Hughie Morrison's confidence regarding Marmelo: "I didn't see having a scan as a problem," Morrison said. "We know this horse incredibly well. Tom (his handler) has ridden him since he was a baby. I have known him since he was a two-year-old. "Tom, who has loved him for three years, said he is moving as well as ever and Hughie (Bowman) rode him today and said he worked better this time than he did this time last year. "All roads lead to next Tuesday. "He was x-rayed and cleared before he came and he was x-rayed last week. His x-rays showed no difference to this time last year and I think the CT scan, from what I have heard, I don't think it's significant. "I think his form is probably on a similar level." Similar news for the Godolphin pair who underwent scans, Cross Counter and Ispolini: "We were very happy with both of them today," foreman Chris Connett said from Werribee. "We have been happy with them the whole trip. "Regarding Cross Counter, he had a slight filling in his left front and on vet inspection by Grace Forbes, she was a little concerned. "We took some x-rays, which we were happy with. We were invited to go for a standing CT, which we did on Saturday, and we have been passed clear. We are very happy with that. "With regards to Ispolini, when he arrived here RV vet Grace Forbes was not exactly happy with his action and invited us to go for a standing CT. "Those results have come back and the team back home are looking at those. He went for a scan yesterday (Monday) at Ballarat. When we get the results back from there the team back home and the vets here will have a discussion and decide what we want to do. "They both look good to my eye. They haven't missed a day of training while they have been here. Their gallops have been good and at the moment we are full steam ahead. "As long as we get the okay, they will work tomorrow." |
A lot changes in a day...
Marmelo out. Ispolini out. "Marmelo was referred to the University of Melbourne Equine Clinic to undergo a standing CT scan across the weekend after showing signs of soreness upon inspection by RV veterinarians. "The results of the standing CT scan indicated an incomplete fracture in the horse’s near fore cannon bone and an incomplete fracture in its off hind cannon bone. "Having considered the RV veterinary report, in addition to veterinary reports submitted by trainer Hughie Morrison, Stewards acting under AR20(d) have ordered the withdrawal of the horse from the Melbourne Cup." "Ispolini was referred to the University of Melbourne Equine Clinic to undergo a standing CT scan across the weekend after showing signs of soreness upon inspection by RV veterinarians. The results of the standing CT scan indicated pre-fracture pathology within the horse’s right front cannon bone. "Having considered the RV veterinary report, in addition to veterinary reports submitted by trainer Charlie Appleby, Stewards acting under AR20(d) have ordered the withdrawal of the horse from the Melbourne Cup." Sound and The Chosen One now move into the Top 24 in the Order Of Entry. |
Results of Cup nominees in today's Bendigo Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4aci3e41zc
Nominees for Saturday's Lexus Stakes/Hotham Handicap:
The position in the Order of Entry for each is actually two less - unless the appeal that Charlie Appleby is talking about making regarding Marmelo is successful. Surely Youngstar and Neufbosc don't run in this..... If the victor of the race is a Melbourne Cup nominee (there are two in the field who are not) and takes up the ballot exemption, then 24th in the Order will miss out. Sound23 and The Chosen One24 are on the same handicap and within $7000 in eligible prizemoney winnings. The final runner in the Cup field might come down to placings in this race: 1st $180,000, 2nd $54,000, 3rd $27,000, 4th $13,500, 5th $7,500, 6th $6,000, 7th $6,000, 8th $6,000. Yesterday True Self's connections announced they wouldn't make a late entry for the Lexus and rely on attrition to get into the field. They were in 29th then; what did they know!? ;) Red Galileo has also withdrawn from the race, though he was in 33rd and it wasn't of great concern. This is exhausting... |
Talk of legal action from the Hughie Morrison camp regarding Marmelo's forced withdrawal. Understandable as it costs a fair whack of change to get a horse out here for what may amount to be just a holiday.
You can listen to his interview on RSN this morning here: https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode?id=454314 In it he claims the world's leading expert in the "condition" for which he has been turfed out was consulted and says that there is no issue. The areas of concern from the CT scan may have been with the horse for months, if not years: time in which he has comfortably raced without any problems being evident. Part of the issue might be that there are only 3 of these standing CT scanners in the world. It's only just been put in place at the University of Melbourne's Werribee equine clinic, costing 1.3 million dollars. Ideally what should occur is that current scans are compared to previous ones to highlight areas of change. I know that if I were to have a scan of my foot, it would likely pick up evidence of a bunch of fractures - but these would have happened decades ago. I'm not sure what model machine they're using, but given the scarcity of them and the quoted price, I would imagine it is a 4-camera version of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RJZtGGedwU. It only takes 30 seconds to do a full scan. The manufacturers recommend charging clients between $700 and $1000 per scan. That's the advice to vet clinics they're hoping to sell the item to, to recoup the cost (approx. four scans per week). Honestly, each racing body should park at least one of these in each capital city and registered horses should have to be scanned there every couple of months: no recent scan and they can't race. I also don't think we'd be too far off from AI being able to compare scans and automatically note areas of concern. |
Marmelo's part-owner John O'Neill with his take on the events of the last 24 hours: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podca...i=1000455537340
Godolphin travelling foreman Chris Connett with his take on Ispolini's withdrawal from the Cup: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podca...i=1000455537339 Racing Victoria's GM of Integrity Jamie Stier discusses the reasons international gallopers Marmelo and Ispolini were scratched: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podca...i=1000455537338 |
Getting hard to keep track but we're now down to 37 candidates with both Angel Of Truth and Raheen House dropping out of the race.
...at least they weren't horses I'd already written a profile on... Southern France has drifted out to $26 now. Hunting Horn out to $34. |
 Twilight Payment
6yo B Gelding
Teofilo (IRE) - Dream On Buddy (IRE) [By Oasis Dream (GB)]
24s: 5-9-5
Owner Lloyd Williams and trainer Joseph O'Brien join together again, as they did to great success in 2017 with Rekindling. O'Brien hasn't long been Twilight Payment's trainer though, just in his last race, with the horse switching from John Bolger.
His last race wasn't especially impressive, though he was in good company there: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUgzyvSbDrA In the Irish St Leger he finished in 7th position 6.25L back. It wasn't quite as bad as it looked though with Search For A Song surprising the field and going on with it after sneaking away with a lead. Only Kew Gardens was able to bridge the gap somewhat, and then soon after came 'the also-rans', all finishing within 2.5 lengths. Among this bunch were Southern France, Cross Counter, Master Of Reality, Latrobe and Twilight Payment. They were all at level weights here but there will be some changes for the Cup. That's not the case with respect to Latrobe, but Twilight Payment will otherwise be 0.5kg better off against Southern France and Master of Reality, and 2.5kg better off against Cross Counter.
Williams wasn't that disappointed in his performance, claiming that he needed the run and had not long switched stables. There may be some argument that he didn't enjoy the conditions either. The ground wasn't effected much (conditions only changed from Good-to-Firm to Good after the race), but there was torrential rain just ahead of their run.
His three preceding races, each also over 2800m, are the ones that bear looking at. They seem to show that there's not much between the Williams runners.
Twilight Payment vs Master of Reality: -1.75L carrying 0.5kg more and +5.25L carrying 1kg more
Twilight Payment vs Southern France: -0.75L carrying 0.5kg more and +3.25L at level weights
Twilight Payment vs Latrobe: +nk at level weights
Bonus:
Twilight Payment vs Mustajeer: -1.4L and +3.5L, both at level weights
The Curragh Cup was his best performance and that was held over the same course as the St Leger Stakes. The most I can find of the race is here: https://www.racingtv.com/news/twili...ger-and-manning. What's different between this and the St Leger Stakes? He's leading in this one (by 3 lengths at the midway point per a race comment) and he's also well into his campaign. His record has him at 0 wins from 10 first or second up races. In 8 of those he placed, but one was when he was still a maiden and the rest were only 5-8 horse fields. Is that a character of the horse, or by virtue of his previous trainer's programming? We don't know...
His official Irish rating jumped to 113 after his last race but that presumably was only due to those he finished around in the St Leger Stakes: 5 lengths away from where it would have mattered. The previous 2 years has seen his rating hover between 105 and 110, which consequently seems a likelier estimate. Particularly for a mature horse.
His Dosage Profile is (1-4-15-6-0), with DI 0.93 and CD 0: 3600m looks the ticket. He's had 3 runs over the Cup distance with 1 win and 2 placings from 3 attempts, all at black type. His Conduit Mare Profile also indicates the longer, the better: (2-7-2-9-10) with Speed 9, Stamina 19, Index 0.42 and Triads (11-18-21).
His past race record looks impressive with some big names popping out and he seems to mix it with Lloyd's other runners when conditions favour, but you feel that if something wonderful were to happen in his career, it would have already happened. His current odds are $61, which do seem a little high though. Somewhere between the Latrobe ($17) and Southern France ($34) marks seems a better estimate.
He looks a bit dour (only Ethereal has won with a higher Stamina figure). I find it hard to picture him running the leader down in the straight but I could see him leading into the straight and having to be run down. You'd think given the size of the field that it would be difficult to get into that position firstly, and that there then would be someone who had had a cushy enough run to have enough in the tank to overhaul him. While he could sneak a place if conditions suit, I'm more inclined to think he'll finish around 10th. |
Results from the Hotham Handicap by Cup nominees:
Downdraft wins and is into Tuesday's Melbourne Cup with his ballot exemption. Following the forced withdrawals of Marmelo and Ispolini, and the scratching of Angel of Truth, he was in 24th so needed to protect his position. It's been announced that he has not earned a penalty. Angel of Truth ruined everything. Check out this alternative timeline: After Marmelo and Ispolini were turfed by stewards, Sound was 23rd in the order and elected to skip the Hotham. The Chosen One in 24th needed to run, with the winner otherwise bumping him from the Cup. Both he and Sound were on the same handicap with Sound just ahead with $248,489 of eligible winnings. The Chosen One was close behind with $241,000. He just finished 5th and won $7500, taking his eligible winnings to $248,500. He should have jumped ahead of Sound in the Order and would have made it into the Melbourne Cup field by just $11. But Angel Of Truth wrecked it on Thursday. Sound could withdraw from the Hotham as he was guaranteed a Melbourne Cup start. Don't know why The Chosen One ran... Downdraft couldn't leap ahead of him in the prizemoney stakes by coming 2nd. If another horse won the exemption then it would have been Downdraft missing out on the Top 24. Final declarations, along with rider notifications, are due by 4:30pm today. The barrier draw is set to start at 5:30pm. |
| All times are GMT +10. The time now is 04:45 PM. |
Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.