OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

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- Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)

- - Pre Post Prices (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=11688)

CP,
I know that, just having a stir, so from now on an i will be a 1 etc.
Should be fun and REALLY get the little gremlin busy.:rolleyes:

Chrome,
It's not just swear words the program blocks, but some other racing sites too. Try printing www.**********.com. Yep, it's still doing it. The site was www. ************p.e.r.t.f.o.r.m.com.au Must be competition in something. I would be interested to know all the sites it blocks just out of curiosity.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kenchar

Dale,

The best one I can remember was a horse called Bravery ( I will always remember this one ) in the mid 80's.
I used to go to every meeting I could get to in those days.
I worked a system out for my son who used to go the track with me.
It was based on prepost bet 2 horses a race using a type of martingale staking.
His first bet was $1 each nag.
The system ran meeting to meeting so basically the cycle never ended.
It was at Randwick and from memory one of those races where they were all first starters.
Bravery was $5 2nd or 3rd fav prepost.
My son was on a losing run from the last meeting and his bet on this race was $25 a horse so $50.
He came up to me and asked what he should do ( the old run of outs dirty underpants scenario ) as Bravery was 80/1 with the bookies and thought He should not bet it.
I made him place the bet.
You guessed it last on the bend came down the outside and won going away.
I will never forget it as long as I live the look on his face.
Interesting though the horse did ************ all after that, BUT this was an absolute fluke and I think the bookies are more right than they are wrong.
The person that RATED the race ( according to the majority on this forum was the office boy ) was correct.
Hey any office boys out there want a job.:rolleyes:

Cheers.

That reminds me of a horse called Landowner from about 10 years ago,i was working this sytem i had developed and had a staking plan that called for increased bets,i was only new to the game and was a little nervous putting the required $20 straight out on a horse that was $10 pre post,anyhow i placed the bet and was amazed to see the horse win at odds of $35.

The system ended up on the scrap heap after i lost my bank a few months later but with the $700 adrenalin rush still fresh in my memory i went to work trying to find a profitable angle.

Thank you Landowner.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrome Prince

The prepost is not as accurate as the actual starting price for strike rate.

A far greater percentage of races are won by the top jockey and trainers, this has a lot to do with it. These types are backed in heavily to come out favourite in the top 4 prepost, unless there is something else outstanding.

One only has to look at the firmers from prepost to SP and see how heavily the popular guys are backed in. This erodes the value, but lifts the strike rate.

Now if the prepost allowed for popularity rather than ratings, it would be just as accurate and a lot less variation.

I can't agree with your last paragraph here Chrome. If popularity of jockey and trainer (assuming this corresponds in some quantifiable way to frequency of winning of jockey and trainer) is such an important factor I'm sure any rater worth his salt could allow for it easily and adjust his ratings accordingly. Maybe the prepost guys are looking for better value or have less information at the time of rating perhaps.

KV

Hi KennyVictor,

It is quantifiable in that after watching prepost prices and recording them for quite a while, 90% of Hawkes, Waterhouse, Freedman, Hayes, Beadman, etc etc horses come in to start shorter than the prepost. 10% of others come in.

These horses are usually under 10/1 though.

This is why invariably you can't make a profit, even though they have such a good strike rate. In a perfect world, one should be able to make a killing.

You might notice that some of the above are showing a profit at level stakes, but this usually comes from one outsider getting up.

I read a very interesting post on a UK forum last night, of a system where a guy had found each trainers niche and backed the runners only in those races. He is doing very very well.

I'm not suggesting it would work here, but it's definitely worth thought.

Some trainers do very well with their horses first up, some do well with 2yo's, or Group races etc etc.

He had gone back over 5 years to see each trainers training habits.

I wouldn't use it though, because each crop in the stable is new or getting older and results can vary too much.

I know a few leading trainers who have had a run of 2 years where they just could not get decent horses.

Kenchar,

Must be a different Bravery to the one I remember. Was owned by the Lone Star syndicate, trained by B. Mayfield Smith and won a Qld Oaks amongst others.

Top Rank,

That was the name maybe I'm wrong about what it did after, I have just sent off a search to see if I can get it's full career form, see what comes back and let you know, or maybe you have it and could post it here.

Cheers

Quote:

Originally Posted by crash

Not sure but I am glad you printed that one out for me. Was checking it out a few weeks ago but forgot the name. Has just been added to favourites, will not forget again...

Top Rank,

Here's another you can check out if you like, again mid 80's.
Melbourne race , cant remember which track but again was at Randwick and on a weds.
Judges Rule 15/1 on interstate fluctuations, I bet $960 but the best I could get was 12/1 and I think from memory was with Harry Barret, can't be sure but maybe you can get him to check his betting sheets.
Was a distance race and my horse went 10 lengths ahead and I nearly threw my betting slip away then, won by about 4 lengths ( but not real sure might have been 3 lengths ) again check that out.

All the best

Top Rank,

Sorry about this but you have really got the old memories going ( I admit I have now had a few drinks ).
Again mid 80's a big Brisbane (I think) race ( you can see I'm an expert when I can remember all the names of the races and where they were run).
Myocard ( I think that was it's name but was a hotpot) left it out of a tri was a photo for 3rd, and the longest photo I have been through and it ran 4th.
Was quite a rewarding Tri.
I'm sure you can check that one out too.
I am pretty sure of the nags name, actually I think it won the slipper.

Cheers.