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-   -   Last start win system (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23989)

axledog 7th June 2012 11:04 PM

Hi TTA and Matt ,


Any thing come of this?
My new system under way now (3 weeks only - 13 selections for 6 wins
but no value.....)

Still lookin , getting closer , but need price.

And you ?

gunny72 8th June 2012 09:04 AM

Last start winner
Top ranked place percent
Career Starts >= 15

Try Try Again 8th June 2012 10:18 AM

Hi Axledog,

I have revisited my system a few weeks ago after I read about looking at starters without a lot of career runs.

Formally I looked at horses with 7 to 29 career starts but I now only look at horses with <20 career starts, that are also last start winners and with a few other rules, one being prepost price is <$10. This has increased the POT% considerably.

Keep working at it I'm sure you will strike it lucky soon!

moeee 8th June 2012 11:12 AM

You have been TOUd. Please stick to discussing the betting system and not flaming/baiting forum members. Thank you. Moderator.

gunny72 9th June 2012 09:27 AM

The stats show that the average strike rate of horses decreases as number of career starts increases but I am not sure how to interpret this. Should we be giving horses with fewer starts a greater rating or should we be compensating horses that have had a lot of starts?

beton 9th June 2012 10:30 AM

There is no reason why the Peter Principle can not be applied to horses. They just go up in class until they become mediocre.

moeee 9th June 2012 10:48 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
You have been TOUd. Please stick to discussing the betting system and not flaming/baiting forum members. Thank you. Moderator.

Is there any danger as to posting who the members responsible for issuing the TOU in the future?
Is that a problem?

Try Try Again 9th June 2012 11:28 AM

Hi Axledog,

I look at the following rules for last start winners

  1. Career starts
  2. Unitab Rating
  3. Win%
  4. Days since last started (DSLS)
  5. Prepost price
I only bet on Good or Dead tracks on Saturday Metropolitan meetings in SA,VIC, NSW & Qld.

As I previously indicated I changed how I was applying my rules and since 19th May there has been 26 bets for 7 winners (27% S/R) and an increase in bank of 32.4 units on an outlay of 45 units = POT% of 72%

The gold is out there - we just have to find it!

mattio 9th June 2012 12:59 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by axledog
Hi TTA and Matt ,


Any thing come of this?
My new system under way now (3 weeks only - 13 selections for 6 wins
but no value.....)

Still lookin , getting closer , but need price.

And you ?
Hi axledog,

I didn't really look any further into this mate, my last start winner systems are all going well so I didn't feel the need to try and scrutinize any further. I hope your S/R continues, if you can get the best price you will be ahead over time.

Cheers,

Matt.

mattio 9th June 2012 04:01 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by gunny72
The stats show that the average strike rate of horses decreases as number of career starts increases but I am not sure how to interpret this. Should we be giving horses with fewer starts a greater rating or should we be compensating horses that have had a lot of starts?
Interesting point raised here, I have found that most of the systems I use perform best with horses that have won a maximium of 4 races, after this the number of winners and profitability tends to drop away a bit in my experience.

Cheers,

Matt.


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