Hi Ubetido,

I'll update after today's meeting on how January has gone. I'll also update on Saturday only meetings.

TTA

After the results of yesterday's Warrnambool meeting it has to be said IT IS ************ HARD TO MAKE $1 PER RACE!


>= 8 starters

1st opening fav
Bets 235
Bank $245.30
largest bet $159
longest losing run 10
current losing run 2 (chasing $1)
POT % = 20.6%
Win S/R = 31.1%
Biggest drawdown = $432.00

2nd opening fav
Bets 235
Bank -$1070.50
largest bet $292
longest losing run 20
current losing run 5 (chasing $1306.50)
LOT % = 23.3%
Win S/R = 16.6%
Biggest drawdown = $908.00

3rd opening fav
bets 234
bank $1593.40
largest bet $725
longest losing run 28
current losing run 16 (Chasing $1)
POT % = 41.9%
Win S/R = 12.4%
Biggest drawdown = $2722.00

All starters

1st opening fav
Bets 304
Bank $293.90
largest bet $196
longest losing run 9
current losing run 2 (chasing $11.10)
POT % = 13.2%
Win S/R = 31.3%
5 times the bank has entered into a negative state.
Biggest drawdown = $267.00

2nd opening fav
Bets 305
Bank -$6522.10
largest bet $1535
longest losing run 28
current losing run 5 (chasing $6828.10)
LOT % = 53.6%
Win S/R = 16.7%
8 times the bank has entered into a negative state
Biggest drawdown = $4750.00

3rd opening fav
bets 303
bank $243.00
largest bet $95
longest losing run 20
current losing run 11 (chasing $61.00)
POT % = 19.6%
Win S/R = 15.2%
5 times the bank has entered into a negative state
Biggest drawdown = $355.00

For Saturday Melbourne meetings

1st fav
bets 25
bank $23.30
largest bet $5
longest losing run 4 (twice)
current losing run 3
POT % = 47.5%
Win S/R = 28.0%

2nd fav
bets 25
bank $33.10
largest bet $7
longest losing run 6
current losing run 0
POT % = 76.9%
Win S/R = 24.0%

3rd fav
bets 24
bank $13.20
largest bet $5
longest losing run 9
current losing run 7
POT % = 35.6%
Win S/R = 20.8%

I have to go out so I'll update the rest later today.

For Saturday Sydney meetings, >= 8 starters

1st fav
bets 26
bank $28.50
largest bet $45
longest losing run 10
current losing run 0
POT % = 9.7%
Win S/R = 23.1%

2nd fav
bets 26
bank $16.20
largest bet $9
longest losing run 8
current losing run 6
POT % = 25.7%
Win S/R = 11.5%

3rd fav
bets 24
bank $30.20
largest bet $5
longest losing run 11
current losing run 1
POT % = 62.9%
Win S/R = 16.7%


For Saturday Melbourne meetings, all races

1st fav
bets 32
bank $25.35
largest bet $14
longest losing run 4
current losing run 3
POT % = 37.8%
Win S/R = 40.6%

2nd fav
bets 32
bank $34.60
largest bet $3
longest losing run 7
current losing run 0
POT % = 75.2%
Win S/R = 21.9%

3rd fav
bets 30
bank $18.20
largest bet $7
longest losing run 11
current losing run 8
POT % = 33.1%
Win S/R = 16.7%

For Saturday Sydney meetings, all races

1st fav
bets 32
bank $34.60
largest bet $15
longest losing run 7
current losing run 0
POT % = 38.4%
Win S/R = 28.1%

2nd fav
bets 32
bank $22.20
largest bet $25
longest losing run 12
current losing run 6
POT % = 16.3%
Win S/R = 9.4%

3rd fav
bets 31
bank $40.00
largest bet $6
longest losing run 13
current losing run 1
POT % = 59.7%
Win S/R = 16.1%

Even though the Saturday metropolitan meetings in Melbourne and Sydney are showing promising results we can see from the Country, Provincial and non Metro Saturday meeting results that even trying to win $1 for every bet made can have some diabolical results if winners can't be found at regular intervals.

I think it was a worthwhile exercise but in reality to try to win $1 for every bet made using the opening 3 favourites is dangerous.

Interestingly, I entered the 1st favourite (all races) into the Retirement Staking Strategy using the following:-

Divisor = 4 (Average win Dividend = $2.98)
Target = 8
First bet = $2
Starting Bank $100

Divisor calculated as 2 x (Av Win Dividend - 1) = 2 x (3-1) = 2 x 2 = 4

The win bank after 304 bets = $372.60
Profit is $272.60
Largest bet = $38
POT % = 13.3%

When compared to trying to make the $1 on every race method the POT% is comparable (13.3% c/f 13.2%) and the profit similar $272.60 c/f $293.90.

Although the total outlays are similar ($2049 c/f $2228) I think the psychology of have a largest bet of $38 c/f $196 would be a lot more easy on the heart!

It is very important to have a Staking plan which is not out of your comfort zone so you can handle the losing runs without placing you in a stressful position.

Winning with adrenalin flowing but not blood pressure hitting the danger zone!

TTA

Hi Try

Have you looked at applying your recovery method to the place results on Fav=1+2+3?

Hi TTA,

I know you've mentioned this before but how does this retirement staking plan/divisor thing work? I've looked it up on the net and tried to figure it out on here as well but I just can't get my head around it. Can anyone shed some light on this?

Also, the average win dividend of $2.98, is that the average divvie of all first favs for all time or just in your test period?

TO
These were off the web. May help you

Thanks very much beton. I'll have a look.

Hi TO,

The $2.98 was the average price of all winners for the month of January in Victoria during my test period.

Hi Rails Run,

No I haven't looked at place dividends. My gut feeling is the dividends would be too small and there were too many unplaced favourites to work, but I could be totally wrong.