This week will be one where you can bet on Friday night. There's a good meeting at Moonee Valley and you can tip on that meeting. No other Friday racing, just Melbourne. If you want to bet on Friday night, you can post all your bets on for the weekend before your first race OR you can post some on Friday and the rest on Saturday morning.

Moonee Valley
R4 #3 Super Too $30 win

Rosehill
R7 #10 Sunlight $10 win

Mornington
R7 #11 Kings Will Dream $10 win
R9 #6 Our Peaky Blinders $10 win

Thanks Sportz
Good luck all

I should just copy Dillwars as he is having a great run compared to the rest of us :)

Good Luck this round, I'll put mine in on tomorrow/Saturday.

Just out of interest, would anyone be prepared to estimate odds for me scooping 1st place in this years comp .. as unlikely as that would be!

Cheers LG

FRIDAY MARCH 23
 

MOONEE VALLEY

R2-8 DIVINE COMMAND 20W10P
R3-8 MAXIMUS 20W10P
R4-3 SUPER TOO 30W
R5-3 PALAZZO VECCHIO 20W10P
R8-8 DEPRIVE 20W10P

SATURDAY MARCH 24

ROSEHILL

R2-7 NETTOYER 20W10P
R4-1 GAILO CHOP 30W

MORPHETTVILLE PARKS

R2-5 SAGAAB 20W10P
R3-2 DARK VILLAIN 20W10P
R4-3 ENTRANCING 30W


Thanks
William

Moonee Valley
R7 No 4 10 7 All $35 WIN

Moonee Valley
R8 No 1 and 10 $30 WIN each

.. another brain fade sportz. Apologies mate.

LG

All $15 each way thanks, Sportz:

MORNINGTON
R6 no9 Schism
R7 no5 Clondaw Warrior

ROSEHILL
R1 no6 Isaurian
R2 no4 Harlow Gold
R3 no2 Lord Fandango
R4 no3 Harlem
R6 no11 The Lord Mayor
R7 no 17 Qafila
R8 no1 Le Romain
R9 no9 Hetty Heights

Rosehill

R.1 TARABAI
R.2 DOMED
r. 3 PERIBSEN
r.4 GAILO CHOP $30 win
r.7 SEABROOK
r.8 SNITTY KITTY
r.9 QUILISTA

All $20 win except r.4, good luck to all

These are a few quick picks today. Probably should sit out this week but that would be no fun. No real analysis done on these and the selections were through a quick pick system.

Rosehill R5: WINX PLACE $20
Doomben R6: MR MARBELLOUZ PLACE $20
Kembla Grange R3: KATHMANDU PLACE $10
Bairnsdale R2: LAGERFELD PLACE $5
Ascot R6: WESTERN TEMPLE PLACE $5


Good luck everyone.

You're right. No worries. Unlucky there. I thought Thronum had it.

ROSE 2
7 $15ew
2 $10ew

ROSE 6
2, 5, 11, 12 & 13 All $5ew

ROSE 7
1 & 10 $10ew
5 $5ew

Of course the 3 I thought about submitting tips for at Moonee Valley last night all romped it in and now I'm struggling to find much of anything today....

WIN $20
Morphettville R7 H2 Callisto Girl
Kembla Grange R4 H2 Temprado
Pioneer Park R1 H6 Sacambay

Good luck all

SR3 No 10 $30 each way and No 12 $30 Win

Rosehill

Race 6 8 D'Argento
Race 8 10 Snitty Kitty
Race 9 3 Sugarbella

Doomben

Race 6 4 Suggan Buggan
Race 8 9 Our BeeBee
Race 9 2 Zofonic Dancxer

Mornington

Race 7 6 Bondeiger
Race 8 6 Silverhawk
Race 9 3 Ma Jones

Morphetville

Race 7 2 Callisto Girl
Race 8 4 Tatoosh
Race 9 2 HussyBay

All $10 Win $15 Place

Hmmm, went a bit silly today. Should have just had Gailo Chop & Kings Will Dream. Never mind. It's really going to be catch up time next week.

Just noticed this now. big win!

Cheers mate. LG

Okay, here's the leaderboard with one week to go before finals...

Leaderboard
62.8 . Dillwar ( Out: $495 / In: $806.00 ) *
5.5 . UselessBettor ( Out: $420 / In: $443.20 )
4.9 . william ( Out: $1,620 / In: $1,698.70 )
-0.6 . walkermac ( Out: $650 / In: $646.00 )
-6.5 . kiwi ( Out: $895 / In: $836.50 ) **
-15.6 . Sportz ( Out: $720 / In: $607.75 )
-23.0 . kellmark ( Out: $980 / In: $754.50 ) **
-25.5 . Lord Greystoke ( Out: $785 / In: $585.00 ) **
-64.1 . Percentum ( Out: $1,770 / In: $635.00 )

Going to have to find a few more long shots to get a sniff Sportz!

Cheers LG

It's not impossible. They don't even have to be big longshots. Just have $30 on 2 winners around the $8-$10 mark and that will probably do. On Friday night, one of your picks Thronum looked all over a winner until grabbed late. If he had held on, you'd be in the top 4 now!

Odds of hitting two $10 chances are 1%. So its in the realms of doable. With a bit of an edge and skill you are probably closer to 2%-3% chance. So as Sportz says it is not impossible and worth a good shot at.

I notice all day long those 1-2% chance getting up.

If they are independent events, why multiply the probabilities if you don't mind me asking UB?

Cheers LG

Its a standard probability calculation. The chance of two events occurring is the probability of the first event x the probability of the second event (which is only correct if you can correctly determine the probability of both events and one event is not related to the other event). For example the chance of raining today is 30% but the chance of you getting wet is 20%. That doesn't mean you have a 6% chance of getting wet if it rains today, its probably much higher.

I don't want to get into the law of large numbers vs the the law of averages (not the right thread) but its an interesting topic. The law of large numbers makes the calculation correct.

SATURDAY MARCH 3
 

OAKBANK

R5-3 ZED EM 30W
R8-1 HEART OF A LION 20W-10P

ROSEHILL

R6-1 GAILO CHOP 20W-10P

ASCOT

R1-2 AT THE READY 20W-10P
R4-1 RED ORA 20W-10P
R5-8 ARCTIC STREAM 30W
R6-1 GEE BOSS 20W-10P

Thanks
William

Rosehill
R1 #1 Spin $5 win
R2 #1 One Foot In Heaven $20 win
R5 #6 Mongolian Marshal $10 win
R6 #1 Gailo Chop $25 win

Caulfield
R6 #8 Top Of The Range $10 win

Thanks Sportz
Good luck all

All $15 E/W thanks, Sportz:

MELBOURNE
R2 no3 Crystal Fountain
R3 no6 Sabotage
R4 no14 Miss Vixen
R5 no5 Aroha Mana
R6 no13 Addison
R7 no10 Fastnet Dragon
R8no4 Fastnet Tempest
R9 14 Highland Beat

ADELAIDE
R3 no3 Wasabi Bob

SYDNEY
R6 no4 Harlem

Moruya R2: 6. JACQUI CADENTE PLACE ONLY $25
Warracknabeal R6: 8. CARIBBEAN PEARL PLACE ONLY $25
Rosehill R6: 1. Gailo Chop PLACE ONLY $10

sydney

r.1 FUTOOH
r.2 ARBEITSAM
r.3 BURNING PASSION
r.4 DAYSEE DOOM
r.5 MONGOLIAN MARSHAL
r.6 AUVRAY, AMBITIOUS
r.7 UNFRORGOTTEN
r.8 ECUADOR
r.9 STONEBROOK

All $30 win, thanks for the comp, Sportz:)


Hoping for the big winners, but..., wishing you all good luck for the semis:)

Well thats a nice start to the day Kiwi.

Percentum off to a good start today as well.

WIN $5/PLACE $15
Doomben R4 H4 My Little Flicka
Gold Coast R8 H15 Jakuta
Moruya R6 H8 Scent of a Woman

WIN $20
Gold Coast R3 H6 Aggravate
Kerang R3 H1 Hay Handsome
Pioneer Park R1 H1 Ladwell

Sydney Race 5
No's 4 8 11 12 14 16 ALL $30 WIN

Best of luck chaps.

Cheers LG

ROSE 4-1 DAYSEE DOOM $10ew
ROSE 4-3 DIXIE BLOSSOMS $10ew
ROSE 5-6 MONGOLIAN MARSHALL $15ew
ROSE 5-7 PRIMOTIVO $5ew
ROSE 6-1 GAILO CHOP $15ew
ROSE 6-2 ALMANDIN $15ew
ROSE 9-5 OSBORNE BULLS $15ew
ROSE 9-10 TRIBAL WISDOM $5ew
CAUL 6-8 TOP OF THE RANGE $15ew
CAUL 6-13 ADDISON $5ew
CAUL 8-6 THEANSWERMYFRIEND $15ew
CAUL 8-12 SWORD OF LIGHT $5ew
CAUL 9-12 HANDSOME THIEF $15ew
CAUL 9-11 WRITTEN ERA $5ew

Caulfield

Race 4 6 Tarcoola Spirit
Race 6 13 Addison
Race 7 4 Odeon
Race 8 8 Kens Dream

Rosehill

Race 5 1 Astoria
Race 6 1 Galo Chop
Race 7 3 Bring Me Roses
Race 8 9 Radipole

Doomben

Race 5 5 Susurri
Race 7 14 River Racer
Race 9 11 Sea The Sparkle

Oakbank

Race 4 8 Tatoosh
Race 7 3 Leider
Race 8 10 Arkham Knight
Race 9 10 Kabini

All $20 Place

Very nice Win @ $44

I knew I'd seen it somewhere. well done. I remember one other year someone came from last to make the finals. Percentum a lot of ground to make up but going the right way about it. Meanwhile, my tips are going shocking.

Sydney Race 6.
- No 4 Harlem $30 WIN
- No 6 Auvray $30 WIN

He LG, for future reference, you're supposed to post all your tips at once. Only exception is if you have a scratching or there is more than 1 day's racing.