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Here is the extra distance that each horse ran when compared to the one that covered the least metres in their Cup. Collected by barrier and per the tracking stats available for the last 2 years (NB - only one data point for barrier 9 and one for barrier 24).
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Those wide barriers do not look good. You need a really good horse to win from out there against other good horses. |
Aside from the odds perhaps fluctuating over the next couple of days, here are the final results of 'the system'. Not as helpful as in past years!
(NB - Bold runners have a Conduit Mare Stamina Figure of 17, as have had 10 of the last 11 winners).
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Thanks walkermac for all you've done with this thread. Can you remind us how the system works and what the system picks are? Would they be used just for the win or, say, a first 4?
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 Neufbosc
4yo GR Gelding
Mastercraftsman (IRE) - Nonsuch Way (IRE) [By Verglas (IRE)]
13s: 3-2-1
He's not given much chance by the market, Neufbosc has the longest odds in the race. Prince of Penzance won at $100 in 2015, why not Neufbosc at $126?
Let's look at his pedigree. His Dosage Profile is (1-13-6-0-0), DI 5.67 and CD 0.75. Oh. His DI and CD are higher than any winner this century. He looks more like a 1400m runner. 6 of the 38 placegetters had a higher CD - and one of these at $101 - so it's not impossible. Just unlikely.
He looks slightly better with his Conduit Mare Profile of (6-8-1-9-7), Speed 14, Stamina 16, Index 0.88 and Triads (15-18-17). Though Prince of Penzance still looks the most similar to him of recent winners...
Neufbosc was a French runner with some handy European form; mid last-year he finished a close second to Kew Gardens over 2400m. Behind him in that race was Dee Ex Bee (3 lengths further back) and Downdraft (14 lengths). Downdraft is at $16 for Tuesday's race. The race prior, he had beaten Ispolini by 4 lengths. The race following, he started favourite but was just beaten by Hunting Horn by 1.5L. Hunting Horn is at $31.
He was such a prospect that his final European start was last year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
....did they ship the right horse? (To be honest, I actually spent some time trying to compare video to see if it was. Because he's a grey, his colour has changed markedly as he's aged; he looked waaaay more brown when he was at his best overseas as a 3 year old).
He was gelded sometime soon after his arrival but it didn't seem to do him any favours. He's had 5 starts in Australia over 1400m to 2400m and not finished any better than 7th or any closer than 4.5 lengths.
The Geelong Cup is probably the best guide as to his current ability: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQ1XfgvsESk. He runs along the rail in 4th position with the field going at a moderate tempo. Rounding the final turn he's left behind a wall of horses and: it doesn't seem to matter. He never really threatens to run on. The speed that his figures said he should have has been totally lacking in his Australian races thus far.
Luckily for him, his Melbourne Cup handicap was based on his European performances from last year. Unlucky for those who missed out on a Cup position, he's not running anything up to that standard. His last official French rating was 112. His Australian rating is currently 105 and very kind. The handicapper wasn't to know his form would turn dire. When weights were released for the Cup Neufbosc had only had two runs, each of which over unfavourable distances, so his poor results in those were anticipated.
Given his current form, given that he's carrying 2.5kg more than his rating says he should, given his barrier (#23), and given how different his prep is to when he was performing well in France, he looks likely to finish within the last handful. It seems very unlikely that he'll suddenly bring this kind of form: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gv4usV7wwdE (Neufbosc's jockey is in white with a purple cap). He'd be among the favourites if he did; but it seems an impossible ask to turn it all around.
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Last year was the first time it was used to forecast the result. You can't see it on last year's thread now unfortunately: I posted it as an image and the hosting site has since shut down. I'm certain though (I think someone comments this in the thread) that the first four were among the total of 7 horses in the table that had either full points or were only one off. Cross Counter was one of the horses who had lost one point, but he was the only one of the seven who also had 17 Stamina. As far as how to use the data in the table this year: unfortunately there are too many good candidates for it to be of much use this time! For an interest wager you could place a Win bet for Raymond Tusk, Downdraft or Surprise Baby: they're on the top two rungs + have a 17 Stamina figure. It's probably more helpful as a means to help your own decision-making in coming up with a shortlist. Here's another system which might leave a smaller number of candidates: "Aspro's Melbourne Cup System", presumably soon to be posted by Racing & Sports: Rule 1 - List any Cup acceptor placed in either the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes (now irrelevant moved to finals day) Mer De Glace, Vow And Declare, Mirage Dancer Rule 2 - List any Cup acceptor placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup Downdraft Rule 3 - List any acceptor who was placed 1-2-3 in the Melbourne Cup at their last cup run Cross Counter, Prince Of Arran Rule 4 - List the Lexus Stakes winner Downdraft Rule 5 - Delete any horse whose last run in the Melbourne Cup was an unplaced run. N/A Rule 6 - Delete any horse who is aged 3yo or 7yo or older. Bye, So per this system, the winner comes from: Mer De Glace, Vow And Declare, Mirage Dancer, Downdraft, or Cross Counter. Combine it with our 'the system' and the winner is "clearly" one of Downdraft and Vow And Declare. ...though you'll note that there's no way for a debuting foreign raider to be a selection per Aspro, so his system would have misfired the previous two years. Per 'the system', the best foreign debuting candidates are Master Of Reality and Latrobe. Box these 4 candidates for trifecta and first fours? Standout Downdraft - the only one of these with a 17 Stamina figure - for the win, if you're a strong believer. I thought Marmelo was going to win this year, to be honest. So I was fully prepared for 'the system' to fail and was likely going to bet against it. That's how much confidence I have in its selections! LOL |
 Downdraft
4yo B Horse
Camelot (GB) - Cinnamon Rose (USA) [By Trempolino (USA)]
18s: 7-2-1
Apparently this guy is going to win the Melbourne Cup... ;)
Greg Carpenter made a couple of interesting tweets after Downdraft's win in the Hotham Handicap/Lexus Stakes:
- Ten of last 13 Hotham Handicap winners have finished top ten in Melbourne Cup three days later - Six of those finishing top 5. Shocking (2009) and Brew (2000) last two to complete Hotham-Cup double.
- Factors considered in not issuing penalty were his defeats behind Southern France in Irish Leger Trial and Hunting Horn in MV Gold Cup last two runs and only Hotham winner to carry more than 51.5kg in last 25 years was Prince of Arran (53kg)
Prince Of Arran had a bit of a tougher time in his race, with the favourite Brimham Rocks pushing him to the line. Downdraft had a comparatively cushy run: he travelled the least distance in the field and - coming into the turn - the leader Haky (also an OTI runner) drifted away from the fence to give him a saloon passage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBwUORaWtAY. Carif ran on for second, but the race was over at the 400m mark.
One negative is that Downdraft also ran last Saturday. Come Tuesday he'll have run 3 times inside of 11 days. Prince Of Arran didn't do that last year. Nor did Shocking. Brew very nearly did though: he came second in the Moonee Valley Cup, which was held on a Thursday at the time and so he just got an extra couple of days before the Hotham/Lexus/SAAB. Perhaps further indication of how soft Downdraft had it: both his and Brew's races were on a Soft 7 but yesterday's race was nearly 2 seconds slower.
The rise of Downdraft is only a relatively recent occurrence. OTI saw something they liked early in his career, following some meh All-Weather track performances in 2018. They held high hopes for his 3yo season but a trip to Longchamp (for the Juddmonte; the same race I linked in Neufbosc's profile) showed exactly where he stood: 15 lengths off the pace.
He didn't really hit his straps until this July. He kicked of this run of performances with a victory in a 4-horse field over 2400m, his first Listed victory and his first attempt at black type since his shellacking the previous year. Later that month he showed a very impressive finish in Her Majesty's Plate Listed Race at Down Royal: https://youtu.be/dVO_Er0usGs?t=244. He beat 2nd by 3 lengths and put another 5 on the rest of the field. Twilight Payment had won this race the year previous, in a time 7 seconds slower.
From there it was to the St Leger Trial Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ftKx9Ym-z0. Unfortunately we don't get to see the whole race. Southern France beat him by 2 lengths at equal weights, where Downdraft beat Master Of Reality by a further 2 lengths, carrying 1kg less. Downdraft will carry 2kg less than Southern France in the Cup and gets another 1kg off Master of Reality.
Australia beckoned and after a 10 week break he resumed in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEeY4F6zRto. He finished in 3rd position, 1.5 lengths behind Hunting Horn. Downdraft carried 0.5kg more here, and will carry 1.5kg less than him in the Cup. It looks like Handicapper Carpenter was very friendly regarding penalties.... Downdraft looks like he should have probably earned 1kg, to be fair. He'll be carrying 53.5kg, 2.5kg lighter than he's ever carried before.
His Moonee Valley performance was missing the zip we saw overseas. His only prior first up win was in a 4-horse race. And the zip seemed to be back yesterday. Perhaps he needed the run.
He wouldn't be stoked with his barrier. He drew #15 and 5 of his 7 victories have come from barriers 1-3. At least it was no wider, that's when things start to go bad (see http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/sho...71&postcount=96 for more details). Backing up after so much recent racing is the big concern, though we have no way to measure the effect. If honest reports from his trainer are that he has recuperated well and will be right to go, he looks a strong top-4 chance to me. |
Time to start posting our selections.
For the winner I think we are down to the following: CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) FINCHE (GB) MUSTAJEER (GB) VOW AND DECLARE SURPRISE BABY (NZ) MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) DOWNDRAFT (IRE) PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) MER DE GLACE (JPN) I'm also going to throw in CROSS COUNTER because its being tipped everywhere but I don't expect it to win. That leaves us 11 selections. In order of preference for me (ratings at the start with 0.0 being best): 0.0 MER DE GLACE (JPN) 0.5 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 1.0 DOWNDRAFT (IRE) 1.5 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 2.0 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) 2.5 RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) 2.5 SURPRISE BABY (NZ) 2.5 FINCHE (GB) 2.5 MUSTAJEER (GB) 3.0 VOW AND DECLARE 9.9 CROSS COUNTER My strategy for the Melbourne cup will be to lay those identified at the bottom of the list from WalkerMac's and will include: IL PARADISO (USA) ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) NEUFBOSC (FR) SOUND (GER) to tell the truth most of my money comes from other races on Tuesday so this race won't have a big impact on profits. Whats your tips? Do you disagree with mine? Put up your tips for bragging rights on Tuesday afternoon. |
 Latrobe
4yo BR Horse
Camelot (GB) - Question Times (GB) [By Shamardal (USA)]
15s: 3-6-1
Latrobe has drifted in betting to $26 following yesterday's barrier draw. It also might be somewhat 'out of sight, out of mind', given that he's yet to race since arriving in Australia.
He's drawn barrier #22. As can be seen in the graph posted yesterday: the past two years, the horse in barrier #22 has run an average 20m further than the horse who travelled the least distance.
Last year I did some data crunching and determined that those drawn outside barrier 15 were under-represented in the Top-4 finishers.
Ahead of the 2018 race, I noted (using data from 2000 on) that the 3 winners within the sample were all carrying <= 52kg and 11 of the 13 top-4 finishers were <= $21 despite their draw. Using those filters on the whole data set, of the 140 finishers drawn outside barrier 15, the <= $21 rule eliminated 99 candidates and missed just 1 second and 1 third (Jakkalberry and Red Cadeaux). The 'Weight <= 54kg' eliminated a further 12 for no further top-4 misses.
Applying it for 2018, it meant that Cross Counter and Rostropovich were possible winners, and that A Prince Of Arran, Yucatan and Magic Circle were potential placegetters. It ruled out 5 horses: one of whom was Finche in 4th and the rest finished 13th and worse.
In 2019, Vow And Declare remains a winning chance, with Il Paradiso, Magic Wand and Surprise Baby remaining place chances (presuming prices don't change). Latrobe doesn't make the cut currently.
I read there's some thought that he may struggle at the distance if it's hard-run. There is something to bear that out in his pedigree figures. His Dosage Profile is (2-7-19-8-0) with DI 1.06 and CD 0.08; indicating around 3300m is his best distance. But his Conduit Mare Profile, which I tend to defer to, is (4-5-4-11-4), with Speed 9, Stamina 15, Index 0.74, and Triads (13-20-19) and looks like slightly short of that. Among the winners this century, only Americain and Delta Blues have a lower Stamina figure. Americain was on a Slow track and Delta Blues' win was one of the slower times on Good. Latrobe has had 3 goes over 2800m with two second placings at Group level, so he's not without hope, but would be hoping for a moderate pace.
Latrobe came to Australia last season to contest the Cup but was withdrawn and ran in the Mackinnon Stakes instead, coming 2nd to Trap For Fools. He dropped into Sha Tin - for little success - on the way home before spelling.
He resumed in April where he mixed it with some other Cup runners over 2000m: he accounted for Mustajeer in the Alleged Stakes - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-fWGA-13f4 (carrying 2kg more; they're level on Tuesday) and was edged out by Magic Wand in the Wolferton Stakes - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEkwgqn0NQQ (carrying 2.5kg more; he gets 1kg back on Tuesday).
Up at 2800m in the Curragh Cup (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qE89Pj6PvEI) Latrobe got beaten by a neck by Twilight Payment (at even weights, as will be the case in the Cup), beat Southern France by 3 lengths (the latter will now carry 0.5kg more), and had another win over Mustajeer (3 lengths at the same weights).
His final European race was the 2800m Irish St Leger, finishing a 5.5 lengths 6th: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUgzyvSbDrA. The winner had put just over 2 lengths on Kew Gardens. Another 2 lengths back to a bunch all finishing within a couple lengths of each other: Southern France, Cross Counter, Master Of Reality, Latrobe and Twilight Payment. Though he would have preferred to be a wee bit closer, Latrobe is better at the weights come the Cup. Per owner Lloyd Williams after the race: "Latrobe was disappointing to the eye but not the jockey [Donnacha O'Brien]. Improvement is possible." Hardly a ringing endorsement, but there's some hope for supporters.
I think the distance is slightly beyond his best, he's a notch below the better overseas candidates, he's lacking some top end speed, and the wide barrier draw is of little help. Let's say he'll finish around 14th. |
 Cross Counter
4yo B Gelding Teofilo (IRE) - Waitress (USA) [by Kingmambo (USA)] 12s: 6-2-1
You can read last year's profile on Cross Counter (in which I called him 'the likeliest candidate'), here: http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/sho...nter#post374798
So what's changed since last then? Well, he won last year's Melbourne Cup. In case anyone's forgotten how thrilling his finishing burst was: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95ypY3OqS6w. He was drawn wide, went back and with the light weight zipped by the field in the straight. He just collected Marmelo in the last 50m, but had 3 lengths on everyone else.
He's back to defend his title, and has a real weight rise of just 2.5kg. He carried 51kg, 4.5kg below the benchmark for a Northern Hemisphere 4yo at the time. His weight this year is 57.5kg, 2kg below benchmark.
From the stats I have for returning winners:
Almandin went up 4.5kg (12th 11.7L)
Americain went up 3.5kg (4th 1.5L and then 11th 6.7L)
Dunaden went up 4.5kg (14th 10L and 11th 8.8L)
Fiorente went up 1.5kg when moving from 2nd to 1st
Green Moon went up 3kg (21st 44.4L)
Makybe Diva went up 4.5kg (1st, then a further 2.5kg for 1st)
Media Puzzle went up 3kg (12th 10.3L, 2 years later)
Shocking went up 6kg (18th 19.4L)
Viewed went up 5kg (7th 4.4L).
So Cross Counter has been treated relatively kindly when compared to recent winners. Prior to the Melbourne Cup his Official British Rating was 114. Now it's 118, so that's also in keeping with the weight rise. Compared to the other horse's in the race and their ratings, only Raymond Tusk, Hunting Horn (if you take his overseas rating), Il Paradiso and Master Of Reality get 1kg or more in their favour.
Per a report earlier in September:
Syndicator Luke Murrell, whose company Australian Bloodstock syndicated the 2014 Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist, said Cross Counter was extremely well in with his current weight. “Cross Counter, with 57.5kg he has been gifted the race this year,” Murrell said. “He’s had seven starts in Group company for three wins- two at Group I level and two placings to the best stayer in the world in Stradivarius – basically the Melbourne Cup is over before we start if he travels well. “How you can get into a Melbourne Cup having won last year - then winning the Dubai Gold Cup - then with the fat Stradivarius form – with 57.5kg is surprising. “You can only assume he's a put in and take out job - and the $17 is a gift this far out - if he arrives here on the day, he will start 4/1.” He's at $14 currently, but then very little word has escaped Werribee.... He was also sent for a precautionary CT scan last week but was passed as suitable. Since the 2018 Melbourne Cup he's won the Dubai Gold Cup relatively easily bar for Ispolini - who's since been scratched (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxryP4DxT-Q), ran 4th in the Gold Cup at Ascot within 2 lengths of Stradivarius (over 4000m which is too long for him), and then was back to 2 miles in the Goodwood Cup Stakes (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUMkUv6e1Tw) where he finished 7 lengths in front of Southern France, and just behind Stradivarius and Dee Ex Bee again. His one blemish was his final European race in the Irish St Leger. Southern France just shaded him and he finished among some other Cup challengers. Per his trainer Charlie Appleby: “Cross Counter put up a pleasing effort. It was a bit of a messy race but he produced another solid performance and we can look forward to seeing him try to defend his crown at Flemington.” Given his earlier form I'm inclined to think that Cross Counter just had an off day there. He won't be able to run by the field as he did last year but he's drawn well in Barrier 5. I'd certainly have him among the top finishers and wouldn't rule him out of going back-to-back. |
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The only selection which tops every 'system' or filter I draw on. Next best is .. DOWNDRAFT (IRE) Best of luck gents and hats off to W Mac for another outstanding MC thread. Cheers LG |
.jpg) Mirage Dancer
5yo B Horse
Frankel (GB) - Heat Haze (GB) [By Green Desert (USA)]
17s: 4-5-4
I'm gonna do it! 10 more profiles to go! ....10?! I'm gonna try and do it!
Mirage Dancer was one of the 5 shortlisted by Aspro's system but was a rung below those picked per 'the system' here. He lost two points from his tally: he wasn't under $16 in his last race - he was exactly $16; and he isn't less <= $21 in the Melbourne Cup. Those two factors can be quite broad, I think it was Rostropovich last year that was discounted on account of starting at $31 in the Cox Plate: it wasn't his fault he was up against Winx though! If you can determine that the preceding race wasn't typical or that the market had misread the actual chance, then you could argue about letting that one slide.
And the starting price is a nice filter, but 22.4% of those who finished in the first 4 this century had a starting price > $21. (22.8% for top 3; 26.3% for top 2; 10.5% for first). ...plus you feel smarter if you were to pick the runner contrary to market expectation.
In the Caulfield Cup, among eventual Melbourne Cup starters, both Mirage Dancer and Sound appeared to perform contrary to the market expectation. The former finished a 1.2L 3rd, with the next highest odds-finisher (Hartnell) two lengths back in 7th. Mirage Dancer finished in front of 5 other horses who were at lower odds.
I'm pretty sure the market had him wrong. Best Solution won the Caulfield Cup in 2018; who'd he beat by 0.5L in July of that year at equal weights? Mirage Dancer. Who'd Best Solution beat by a neck in his next race? Sound. The following race Best Solution beat Defoe by a neck and Defoe has been one of the good formlines of this season, during which Mirage Dancer also ran well against him.
Mirage Dancer's run against Defoe was in the Hardwicke Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZ4ZQzDeuhg. He held on well for third and also beat Southern France by 7L.
Next up was the Princess of Wales's Tattersalls Stakes, where he finished second to Communique: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bA0HykJTMUc. That horse would go on to contest German Group 1's, including finished ahead of Old Persian in his next.
His final UK race was in the Glorious Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hESsYO5tajo, where he finished 2nd again (and 12 lengths ahead of Prince Of Arran). The winner Desert Encounter won his next two races in England (Group 3s) and then won a Group 1 in Canada.
From there it was off to Australia and into the care of Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young. His first start for them was the Caulfield Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esSOa1T_6M4. Both Mer De Glace and Vow And Declare came from the rear, whereas Mirage Dancer was midfield or slightly better. When the pressure came on, there was a line of horses in the way and he had to wait for a run. He was brushed with 200m to go and had to balance up again before he sprinted on well. Mer De Glace will carry 1kg more in the Cup following his weight penalty, whereas everyone else was at their Cup weight.
There were a couple who looked to have slightly more finishing speed than he did, but his first up stats are mixed so he may have needed the run. He has a good record second up.
2400m is the furthest he's run and it's where he has the bulk of his wins (3) and placings (6) come from (10 starts): though the bulk of those are in small fields. His Dosage Profile is (2-6-15-7-0), with DI 1.07 and CD 0.1; that looks like he should be fine over the Cup distance. His Conduit Mare Profile is (4-7-3-12-7) with Speed 11, Stamina 19, Index 0.62 and Triads (14-22-22). That looks quite similar to Prince Of Arran's profile, with slightly more Stamina and a tad less Speed.
I don't reckon he'll win but I think he's a good shot at getting a place. At $34 Win Odds he'd also surely be a half-decent price to finish top 10, for which I think he's a shoe-in. |
Im enjoying the reading of the profiles. Keep them coming.
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X 2 to the above.
Loving the whole thread. |
 Il Paradiso
3yo CH Colt
Galileo (IRE) - Famous (IRE) [By Danehill Dancer (IRE)]
8s: 2-2-2
Looking to reproduce the result of the past two years, it's a 3yo candidate from the Northern Hemisphere (considered a 4yo in the Southern). Following the victories of Rekindling and Cross Counter, a review was held regarding the handicapping of this type. The result of the review was that their benchmark was increased by 1kg. Cross Counter carried 51kg last year, Il Paradiso will carry 52.5kg this year (i.e. not only was the benchmark weight bumped up 1kg, but he is adjudged as being 1 rating point/0.5kg better; I don't think that's the case, I think it just goes to show that Cross Counter wasn't carrying near enough the weight he should have been).
Il Paradiso is still quite well in at the weights though. Cross Counter's current rating is 118, meaning that with his Official Irish Rating of 111, he should be carrying 3.5kg less (presuming that their ratings are accurate for performances over 3200m). He's carrying 5kg less; i.e. he has 1.5kg in his favour.
What he doesn't have in his favour is his sire. 21 Galileos have crossed the finish line this century and while there have been two seconds and a third, the bulk of his progeny finished outside of the top 10. Is it just bad luck? His stats for runners to winners over 3200m are quite similar to his best distance ranges: 1600m and 2400m. The ones that appear to do well here though are those with higher Stamina figures. Perhaps the style of the Cup is different to those contested over the same distance in Europe and Galileos need a little extra here... The 3 Galileo placegetters each had Stamina figures of 19 or above, and were priced at under $16. Sir Johannes Vermeer in 2017, and Purple Moon and Mahler, both in 2007.
Ispolini has a Dosage Profile of (4-11-21-12-0), a DI of 1.13 and CD of 0.15 (i.e. 3150m is best, approximately). His Conduit Mare Profile is (3-10-1-9-10) with Speed 13, Stamina 19, Index 0.57 and Triads (14-20-20) - i.e. like a less speedy Johannes Vermeer. So he has a good Stamina figure for a Galileo and is currently at $14. He fits the profile....
Greg Carpenter has admitted that Ispolini was difficult to handicap. There haven't been many runs and there hasn't been consistency. He's basically been rated on his last 3 races.
The first of these was a 2 mile handicap where he beat 2nd by 12 lengths: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qu92ZGNakyg.
The next was the Lonsdale Cup, another 2 mile race but this time at Group 2 level: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrAn2_XW_Xg. Stradivarius wins relatively narrowly, as per his style, with Dee Ex Bee finishing a nose ahead of Il Paradiso. This was his Cup qualifying race and complicating how to judge it: there were only 4 starters, both Dee Ex Bee and Falcon Eight bled afterward, and Stradivarius only ever does enough to win - he never really smashes the field. Racing Post does indicate that it was run 1.5s faster than normal, but that's about all you can go on.
There are different rules regarding bleeding in the UK, so both Dee Ex Bee and Falcon Eight were back a month later in the Prix du Cadran over 4000m. The former must have felt pretty good, finishing 1.5L from Holdthasigreen and Call The Wind; both of those having form around Marmelo both this year and last.
Finally, wikipedia says that: in a 2005 study, horses finishing races with grade 4 EIPH (i.e. bleeding) were on average 6 metres behind those finishing with grade 0. It's only through repeated bouts where horses can get decreased lung function. Given that the race was 1.5s faster than normal and you'd only expect Dee Ex Bee to perform 3 lengths or so worse than he would regularly, then it's still a pretty good run. Particularly for a 3yo in only his 7th start.
His final race was the Group 1 St Leger Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAy70lZxwvk. Il Paradiso did a fair bit of early work. Western Australia shot out to a big initial lead and Il Paradiso marshalled the chasing bunch. He moved to the lead at the 3 furlong mark and looked about to go on with it, but weakened soon thereafter. I recall writing at the time that it looked pretty clear the jockey was expecting more to be in reserve (NB - a different jockey was on board than was with Il Paradiso on his 3 preceding runs; the new jockey has 5 black type wins, the old - Wayne Lordan - has won over 100 black type races and will be riding him in the Cup).
Logician was the winner and there's no shame losing to him: that was his 5th win from 5 starts. Given the ratings of the placegetters, Il Paradiso was still just 2 lengths off where his rating said he should be.
And now for the bad news: he's the only runner in the final field to have not won black type. He also had the least amount of eligible winnings of all runners after third acceptances once Raheen House dropped out. ....but that's the price of dodging the handicapper.
I've talked myself back around. He'll have the blinkers on. Aidan O'Brien sold Constantinople and not him. I don't think he'll win but he'll go very close. Let's go wild and crazy (and eschew 'the system') and say that he'll come 2nd. |
 Finche
5yo CH Gelding
Frankel (GB) - Binche (USA) [By Woodman (USA) 1983]
14s: 4-1-3
Ahead of last year's Geelong Cup, Finche's Australian debut, I picked him as a likely Melbourne Cup candidate. I thought he had mixed it with some good Europeans, that he was handicapped fairly, and that he looked as if he would handle the distance. He ended up finishing 3rd in the Geelong Cup (giving away 5kg to those ahead of him) before going on to the Melbourne Cup and finishing in 4th position. He ran at the front of the pack for much of the race, took the lead in the straight and held on to finish just 3.5 lengths from Cross Counter. He stayed on in Australia following the race and enjoyed a long break before resuming again in September.
His first run was over a mile, a distance he hadn't contested since his race debut. This was to be a very different preparation than his inaugural Cup tilt. His new trainer, Chris Waller, was endeavouring to follow a Bart Cummings-style preparation.
“I'm short [of the 10,000m] with Finche and a touch off it with Youngstar in terms of races, but if you add in trials we get there.
“I know my horses get better with racing like [Bart's] did and we get [to the Melbourne Cup] with them ready to peak.” “I didn’t over-analyse it last year but I knew he would be a stronger horse in 12 months' time,” Waller said. “He has had the benefit of a year in the warmer weather and his preparation is what we wanted. “If I have a shadow of doubt, it is just the way I train horses for these really big two mile [races] where it is a test. I might be a little bit soft on them but hopefully we get away with it.” Finche’s preparation adds up to 8000m on racedays, with his two barrier trials taking the figure to 10,200m. I'm not a racehorse trainer; my background is in track and field. If any elite athlete is training for an event like they did in the 1990s, let alone the 1970s, they are doing it wrong. I don't see how getting a horse fit and fast is magically exempt from the progress that has been made in every other sport. I suspect there is far too much mythology associated with racing for it to be wholly logical, particularly when it comes to Bart Cummings and the Cup. Finche shifted to Victoria for the 2000m Turnbull Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe-vi1yMHcA. This was his first Group 1 placing, coming a narrow 2nd to Kings Will Dream. Finche began well and had a good trip in fourth place. Per the Race Notes: he improved nicely at the home turn, challenged coming to the 200m and kept fighting strongly for second, beaten a short head. Also in the field was Vow And Declare (4th 1.5L - 1.5kg better in the Cup), Sound (7th 3.75L - same) and Rostropovich (9th 4.5L - carries 1kg more, somehow). On to the Caulfield Cup! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esSOa1T_6M4 Finche drew a wide barrier and was caught outside as he once more travelled towards the pointy end. He moved up at the home turn, took the lead at the 300m and then held on for 5th - as several horses ran past him. He doesn't look to have the speed necessary to keep challengers at bay. His awkward running style certainly wouldn't conserve energy; at the end of this race it looked like he was jumping up and down on the spot. On the plus side: he carries the same weight as he did in the 2018 Cup. Those who finished in front of him last year do worse: Cross Counter (+2.5kg), Marmelo (would have been +1kg) and Prince Of Arran (+1kg). The danger is a new crop of lightly-weighted internationals running him down. Finche's Dosage Profile is now (6-7-19-14-0) with a DI of 0.96 and a CD of 0.11. That CD looks like 3200m is ideal. His Conduit Mare Profile reads as (3-8-4-13-6) with Speed 11, Stamina 19, Index of 0.62 and Triads of (15-25-23). It looks like even longer is preferred. He's drawn barrier 4, which is perfect for him given where he'll want to be once the field resolves itself. He looks to be going as well as he was last year with the exact same weight. But....I think it unlikely he'll win; I think it unlikely he'll place. I reckon he'll be somewhere between 4th and 8th again. I'm yet to see him hold off a quality runner in the straight and this field has plenty. |
 Master Of Reality
4yo B Gelding
Frankel (GB) - L'ancresse (IRE) [By Darshaan (GB)]
12s: 3-1-2
Frankie Dettori's latest bid for a first Melbourne Cup win will be from on board Master Of Reality. According to today's Herald Sun, Frankie texted Lloyd Williams a picture of his trophies from the Ascot Carnival and said "Melbourne Cup, please. I’m coming to ride Master Of Reality". Frankie was riding Stradivarius in the Gold Cup when Master Of Reality @ $67 finished within one length. He figured that any horse who could match it with Stradivarius at level weights and was a set for a start in the Melbourne Cup was the horse for him. ...but isn't there a saying that jockeys are the worst form experts?
As has been noted a number of times, Stradivarius never puts a distance on the other horses in the race. Up until being beaten by a nose by Kew Gardens in his last outing, he had put together a string of 10 consecutive victories; half of these were within one length, with all but one within two. His are also psychological victories over the other horses. He trails his opposition, passes them and then stays just far enough ahead to remind his chasers that they're still in the same race and won't win.
A far better guide to Master Of Reality's form is that he was beaten by a nose by Dee Ex Bee into 3rd and finished 0.75L in front of Cross Counter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB69t2__p9w. The Gold Cup is a real stayer's contest, held over 4000m though. Foreign raiders here have said that European horses with form over 2400m seem to fare better in the Melbourne Cup. They tend to have more speed in the arsenal, which may be more effective given the stop-start nature of our race.
One of the most appealing angles of Master Of Reality is his weight: he carries 2kg less than his rating says he should. His Official Irish Rating is currently 118 - equal highest in the field, level with Cross Counter - a mark he reached following this Ascot Gold Cup run and maintained during two subsequent Irish performances. The official rating is meant to capture the ability of a horse over its most suited distance range. Effectively, Greg Carpenter is saying that Master Of Reality is 2kg/4L worse over the Melbourne Cup trip.
Looking at his pedigree stuff, Master Of Reality is the dourest Frankel in the field. His Dosage Profile is (1-3-14-8-2) with DI 0.65 and CD -0.25; there is very little in the way of Brilliance figures and he has the lowest CD in the race. That's an indication that he's best suited at further than 4300m, so no wonder he did well in the Ascot Gold Cup. His Conduit Mare Profile is (3-6-4-12-7) with Speed 9, Stamina 19, Index 0.53 and Triads (13-22-23); again best suited at above 4000m. He's similar to Almandin and will want the race to motor along to an extent such that any fast finishers from the tail of the field will have their sprinting bursts dulled and their passage potentially blocked by fading horses.
His "shorter" distances this campaign were all over the 2800m. He began his series of runs in April with a neck victory over Mustajeer. His starting odds were $34, reflecting a 3yo season that was - kindly - mixed; gelding worked. Also behind him in the field were Southern France and Twilight Payment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGy9lOOH3r8. They all finished within 2L and were within 0.5kg of each other, as will be the case tomorrow. The bulk of the run is missing, but per comments, he lead the race for the duration.
Twilight Payment flipped the script in their next race, beating Master Of Reality by 5 lengths. He was unable to take the lead, and could only keep on at the one pace inside the straight: https://youtu.be/KqvcGmcA77o?t=172
Next was the Ascot Gold Cup and then a short break before the Irish St Leger Trial Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ftKx9Ym-z0. It was the turn of Southern France and Downdraft to beat him after Master Of Reality lead once again and ran on one-paced, again, in the straight to finish a 4-length 3rd.
His final European race was the Irish St Leger itself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUgzyvSbDrA. He lead in the early stages before Search For A Song, the only 3yo filly in the race, was upset with the pace and sped off to head them all. She put on a distance that the field couldn't run down, with Master Of Reality finishing in a knot of Melbourne Cup candidates (Southern France, Cross Counter, Latrobe and Twilight Payment) 4 lengths back. Once again, he made no impression in the last couple of furlongs and ran on one-paced.
From his #1 barrier he won't have much further to run, but he may have to work quite hard to be find a position in the first bunch, where he prefers it. Even were he to get that spot, that some runner in the huge field couldn't run him down in the straight - given his lack of speed - seems quite unlikely. I think he'll finish somewhere from 4th-14th (the wide range is getting a position vs on the fence mid-field). |
 Sound
6yo BR/BL Horse
Lando (GER) - Sky Dancing (IRE) [By Exit To Nowhere (USA)]
24s: 7-2-1
It all went wrong for Sound/Sound Check last season. His final race before departure was the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Berlin. He finished just a neck behind Best Solution, an Irish-bred globetrotter that would soon join him in Australia for a Cups tilt. Best Solution would go on to win the 2018 Caulfield Cup and - despite a 2kg swing in his favour and the race being over the same distance - Sound proved wisely unloved in the betting, finishing 10 lengths back in 12th position.
Aside from one trip to Italy, all his racing was in Germany. Perhaps the travel didn't suit. It didn't go any better for him in the Melbourne Cup. He travelled among the frontrunners for much of the race but was taken via the carpark on the turn, dropping 15 spots over a couple hundred metres. He ended up 18th after not running on in the straight.
He stayed on in Australia after last year's Cup and endeavored to regroup for an Autumn campaign. His lead-up races weren't encouraging and the end result wasn't any different: a meek 8th in the Sydney Cup. No other horses from this year's Sydney Cup have made the Melbourne Cup field. Sound has only qualified by virtue of his performance in Berlin last year.
He's started at over $100 in each of his three races so far this season. The first two were over unfavourable distance and the latest was the Caulfield Cup. Though the 10th place finish looks disappointing, he was only 4 lengths off Mer De Glace and was severely checked in the straight: https://youtu.be/esSOa1T_6M4?t=120. He was in the front wall of horses around the turn, but being widest he lost a length. Into the straight he was then sandwiched between Vow And Declare and Red Verdon, losing all momentum and getting shot out the back. We never actually got to see what he could do and - all things considered - he went pretty well. His run looked as good as Mustajeer's, who is at $15 tomorrow while Sound languishes at $100.
On that scant claim though, it's hard to overturn the burden of evidence of all his poor runs in Australia. His trainer contends that his Autumn form is misleading, citing a poor ride that would have otherwise seen him come 2nd, and feet issues which meant that each race preparation was rushed. He was confident coming in to Spring that Sound would show his true colours.
According to his figures, Sound has a Dosage Profile of (2-1-7-0-0), with DI of 1.86 and CD of 0.5. That gives a preferred distance indication of 2100m. His Conduit Mare Profile hints at a a little further: (3-6-5-8-8) with Speed 9 and Stamina 16. His Conduit Index is 0.59 and Triads are (14-19-21). I'd say that's a good 3200m profile. His record over 2800m+ (even including his heretofore dire Australian form) is pretty good: 3w-1p from 7 starts.
Hoping for the best and expecting the worst sums things up. I certainly think he should be shorter than $100 but given all the black marks I'd anticipate him finishing somewhere in the teens rather than at the top. |
 The Chosen One
4yo B Horse
Savabeel (AUS) - The Glitzy One (AUS) [By Flying Spur (AUS)]
16s: 5-2-0
The Chosen One had a big Summer and Autumn, running 8 times over 15,500m of racing. The bulk of that was in New Zealand where, following a truncated 3yo Spring campaign that started with two victories on debut, he had some up-and-down performances that corresponded with the size of the prize of offer.
Following a win in the Group 3 2000m Manawatu Classic (http://www.racingreplays.co.nz/medi...330MTU04_BB.mp4) Murray Baker tried his luck in the Australian Derby. Per his Jockey Blake Shinn: "I thought he ran a tremendous race, I had to take the horse back to negate the wide draw, they didn’t go that fast, he made a searching run from the 650m and he hit the line strongly.": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktwlH_Z6WPQ. He fell 3.7 lengths short in that Australian Derby, but it worked a treat in his next race with victory in the Frank Packer: "We made another searching run on him but we were coming back 400m in trip so I was mindful of that. He did the job nicely, he is a lovely horse."
He spelled back in New Zealand before returning to Australia this Spring. He began in the Feehan Stakes and continued into the Underwood, each of them too short for his pedigree and the running style he earlier saw success with.
It's his next 3 races which are the telling ones. The Chosen One won the Herbert Power, beating Prince Of Arran by 0.5kg and earning ballot exemption for the Caulfield Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnQEfIIoKH4. It was back to script: running towards the rear and then putting on a burst in the finishing straight. The leading pair put 3 lengths on the rest of the them, though they will meet each other in the Cup with The Chosen One 1.5kg worse off. This victory also meant that he passed the first ballot clause and picked up a 0.5kg penalty.
Drawing barrier 18 in the Caulfield Cup (as he has for the Melbourne Cup) he was the widest runner and loped over to be at the tail of the field, trailing Mustajeer and Mer De Glace. When it came time to push the button he didn't have the pace needed to match these higher class horses and finished a 4-length 9th: https://youtu.be/esSOa1T_6M4?t=104.
I don't know why he elected to run in the Hotham Handicap. By the time all the chips fell, there was no way he could be pushed out of the Melbourne Cup field. It seems a very odd decision to choose to exhaust your horse a couple of days out from the Melbourne Cup. To run tomake the field is understandable, but...*shrug*. His 5th place finish, 8 lengths adrift, may be some indication that he tanked it, but the Steward's Report has it that he was unsettled: needing resaddling at the barrier and having to be restrained over the early and middle stages.
It's certainly not the best form to carry into the Cup and there must be some query over the distance, given only one success > 2000m and otherwise plenty of disappointment.
His Dosage Profile is (6-15-19-2-4) with DI 1.97 and CD 0.37; so around 2400m - or slightly longer, given the 4 Professional points - looks ideal. He also reaches that distance without sacrificing much at all in the speed categories. His Conduit Mare Profile is (6-4-0-8-8) with Speed 10, Stamina 16, Index 0.67 and Triads (10-12-16). Around the 2800m mark looks ideal. The 6 in the Brilliant position also agrees by this measure that he has some toe. In the final field, very few have as many pointers of speed, and even less maintaining their aptitude over distance.
I think this might all be a year too early though. I don't understand the Hotham run at all and can't see how that puts him in peak condition. Given his race style he'll have to be ridden for luck, so why lessen your odds? There are a few timelines in our multidimensional universe where he trots to the running rail from the start, coasts behind the field running which are going at a brutal pace and then takes a shortcut up the inside to, without encountering any interference to just triumph on the line....but I can't see it happening in this one. The current odds ($67) are pretty accurate; should finish back in the late teens to last range. |
 Youngstar
5yo B Mare
High Chaparral (IRE) - Starspangled (IRE) [By Danehill (USA)]
21s: 4-1-4
I did last year's profile on Youngstar ahead of her Caulfield Cup performance. I queried whether she'd even go on to the Melbourne Cup, given that her trainer Chris Waller had said Caulfield was her grand final. Well, one of us is some kind of genius after I wrote "[w]ith a light weight in the Melbourne Cup I could imagine her jetting through on the line for 4th or 5th." (Hint: it's Waller, not me: she did what I said but finished 6th). Not bad for an afterthought...
She's gone up just 0.5kg for this renewal: getting back 0.5kg from Prince Of Arran and 6.5kg from Cross Counter (sort of: it's more like 2.5kg when taking his natural aging into account) among those who finished in front of her last year. For some reason, she's 0.5kg worse off with respect to the horse that finished immediately in front of her, Finche.
Per her trainer, she's since put on 20kg of muscle. In hindsight he believes he tried her a year early, over-enthused by her placing behind Winx in the Turnbull Stakes. Were she in the same form as last year you might expect much the same result this time around. Her Australian Official Handicap has dropped 3 points since last year though. Let's take a look....
Following the 2018 Melbourne Cup she spelled 'til Autumn and had a couple of disappointing runs before wrapping it up 'til Spring. Some barrier trials and "why bother" runs began her campaign with Waller subscribing to the theory that you should risk a horse running in races it has no chance in before its metre-age ticks over a certain point and it suddenly becomes fit. Like how you always see 800m runners contesting sprint races in the IAAF Diamond League ahead of the Olympics... /s
It's time to pay attention again in the Hill Stakes, over 2000m: https://youtu.be/7_JwSmG2NyU?t=94. It's not impressive. Makes very little ground in the straight where you would anticipate her to be doing her best work.
Her final lead-up race is in the 2600m St Leger Stakes with Youngstar initially racing midfield courtesy of the inside barrier, before she drifts back slightly, perhaps hoping to find the back from where she can subsequently swing out. She's still stuck on the rail however and Bowman is held up for almost the entirety of the straight. There's a crack of an opening in the last 100m and she looks to flatten out but makes little impression on the winner or the rest of the challengers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GDXxPrMgDQ.
No other runner from this race qualified for the Melbourne Cup. The only other starter she ran against this Spring was her stablemate Finche, both in the unsuited 1600m Chelmsford Stakes.
Youngstar actually had the oldest qualifying performance per the last Order of Entry, which went back to her Queensland Oaks win in May 2018. That was also her last victory. The 2.7L 3rd in the St Leger Stakes was both her closest and best finish this year, covering 8 races. Her form is not good.
Her Dosage Profile is (3-6-33-4-2) with DI 1.13 and CD 0.08. That implies 3300m. Her Conduit Mare Profile is (6-6-3-9-8), with Speed 12, Stamina 17, Index 0.75 and Triads (15-18-20). I defer to the Conduit Mare Profile and this says 2100m is more likely. Above all I defer to the horse's actual performances and they say she's 3w-2p:7s at 1885m - 2200m.
Waller could be playing four dimensional chess here, but even if he's aiming for her to peak on Cup Day, you'd expect a skerrick of evidence that Youngstar was responding well to that training. So far there's been anything but. Consequently she's a "no" from me. I think she'll be finishing mid to late teens. ...two to go! Hoping to do them quite late tonight |
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I played with the ratings a bit and an alternate set of selections have come out (same selections different order): 0.0 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 0.5 MER DE GLACE (JPN) 0.5 DOWNDRAFT (IRE) 0.5 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) 1.0 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 1.0 SURPRISE BABY (NZ) 1.0 FINCHE (GB) 1.0 MUSTAJEER (GB) 1.5 VOW AND DECLARE 2.0 RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) Lets see which performs better :) |
Looking at TRB's ratings on betfair Hub they said that 84% of all winners in the Melbourne cup have a rating of 106+ in their ratings. That seems like a good yard stick to use as a filter:
There were only 8 which made the rating: #2 Mer De Glace #4 Mirage Dancer #11 Finche #12 Prince Of Arran #14 Downdraft #18 Surprise Baby #19 Constantinople #23 Vow And Declare Lets compare that to the list: 0.0 MER DE GLACE (JPN) 0.5 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 1.0 DOWNDRAFT (IRE) 1.5 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) ****** NOT IN THE LIST 2.0 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) 2.5 RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) ******** NOT IN THE LIST 2.5 SURPRISE BABY (NZ) 2.5 FINCHE (GB) 2.5 MUSTAJEER (GB) *********** NOT IN THE LIST 3.0 VOW AND DECLARE 9.9 CROSS COUNTER ******** NOT IN THE LIST That leaves us with only 7 horses: 0.0 MER DE GLACE (JPN) 0.5 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 1.0 DOWNDRAFT (IRE) 2.0 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) 2.5 SURPRISE BABY (NZ) 2.5 FINCHE (GB) 3.0 VOW AND DECLARE I am reading a lot about MER DE GLACE not being able to make the distance. I am worried about VOW AND DECLARE, SURPRISE BABY and DOWNDRAFT drawing too wide. That leaves us with these three as the top selections: 0.5 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 2.0 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) 2.5 FINCHE (GB) These are the ones I might have a small bet on. |
 Rostropovich
4yo B Gelding
Frankel (GB) - Tyranny (GB) [By Machiavellian (USA)]
18s: 4-2-2
He hasn't met with a whole lot of success since arriving in Australia. His first run he got smacked by Winx in last year's Cox Plate. Following that was the Melbourne Cup where he performed quite admirably, finishing in 5th position, 4.5L from the leader. In his 2018 profile I wrote that he was likely handicapped 2-3kg lighter than he should be and thought he might struggle to make the distance; if he drew well and had an easy race it was possible he could be nursed to the line and might nab get a placing. Things didn't quite go to plan when he drew barrier 21 and was stuck 3-wide the trip, but he did reasonably well regardless.
Following The Cup they tried their luck in the Hong Kong Vase, with the field including Cox Plate winner Lys Gracieux, as well as Prince Of Arran, Latrobe and Miracle Dancer. Once again Rostropovich was forced to race wide and weakened in the straight, but he still finished ahead of the others who had come via Melbourne. He was just ahead of Prince Of Arran with a 2kg advantage (he now carries 1kg more in The Cup), Latrobe was 2 lengths back at level weights (as is the case tomorrow) and Miracle Dancer didn't run on.
He headed back to Australia where his training was taken over by Hayes, Hayes, Dabernig. He resumed in the Makybe Diva, finishing the 1600m in 7th place 3.2L behind.
He was gelded before his next run in the Turnbull Stakes, though it didn't turn around his fortune. He was the 9th place finisher over the more favourable 2000m trip, once again pulling a bad barrier. Rostropovich had every chance to do something in the straight but made no impact on any of the other runners: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe-vi1yMHcA
His final lead-up was the Caulfield Cup where he tried something different: it wasn't not drawing a bad barrier; he did that again. Caught wide once more, he rode up to be off the leader. The end result was still the same though: showing very little in the straight and finishing towards the tail of the field.
Somewhat amazingly, his rating is still 109 - the same rating as he held going in to last year's race. Even if that rating were accurate, he's carrying 2kg more than he should when compared to Cross Counter. Rostropovich could carry a feather and it probably wouldn't matter, the way he's going.
I think he did well last year on account of a very favourable weight, made even more favourable by the conditions. He appears to be far better suited to 2000m-2500m and will again be tested by the Cup distance. His terrible form of late means he's likely to finish among the last couple. |
 Southern France
4yo B Horse
Galileo (IRE) - Alta Anna (FR) [By Anabaa (USA)]
14s: 3-3-3
The final horse to profile (yay) is Southern France. To recommend him: a narrow 2nd to Stradivarius (is there any other kind?) and a clear victory over Downdraft. These races were part of a Cup campaign that has extended back to April.
The first of these was the 2800m Vintage Crop Stakes, where he mixed it with some familiar candidates: Master Of Reality won, just edging out Mustajeer who beat Southern France by a length and Twilight Payment by another: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGy9lOOH3r8
The impressive run against Stradivarius was next, again over 2800m, in the Yorkshire Cup Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WTEeJ2OB7U. We only see the last couple of furlongs, but the pair put a margin on the rest of the field. The British Horseracing Authority gave Southern France a 115 performance rating for this run.
He was back down to Earth with his next performance in the Hardwicke Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZ4ZQzDeuhg. He was 8 lengths adrift of Defoe, with Mirage Dancer coming in 3rd, just 1.5 lengths from the winner. This was at even weights between Southern France and Mirage Dancer, as it will be in the Melbourne Cup. There is little different between the two races, save this one being 400m shorter, but he only earned himself a 104 performance rating this time out. Perhaps Stradivarius coaxed him along to greater heights in the previous race by giving him something just ahead to chase. The next time he met Stradivarius - over 2 miles this time - it didn't work out that way. There were other challengers for him to taunt and Southern France was left in their collective dust, finishing 9 lengths back this time (and 7 behind Cross Counter; though he'll have 2kg back in his favour come 3pm).
Between those two races was the 2800m Curragh Cup and it was Southern France's turn to just beat Mustajeer, but they were both 3 lengths behind Twilight Payment and Latrobe.
Next: let's shuffle them up and give Southern France a win. His first Group victory..... This time make him beat Master Of Reality. What fun! It almost seems like they're taking turns. There's very little in the way of consistency to draw from. Downdraft is new on the scene though, with Southern France beating him by 2 lengths, and Downdraft beating Master Of Reality by the same. That was the St Leger Trial Stakes, for all that's worth, but Downdraft will get a positive 2kg swing in the Cup.
Finally it was the Irish St Leger which I've written umpteen times about, given all the candidates it featured. They all finished in a clump with Southern France at the leading edge.
So how to sum that all up? How about: ¯\_;)_/¯
Southern France seemed to be on an upward trajectory with his latter performances there, so you could put him slightly ahead on that count. Unfortunately we don't know how he travelled nor how he's handled the switch to Ciaron Maher's yard. Apparently Aiden O'Brien has been quite forthcoming with advice on his old charge so there shouldn't have been too much disruption.
He's run 3 races at greater than 2900m for one placing. Looking at the pedigree figures, his Dosage Profile is (9-2-23-12-0) with DI 0.96 and CD 0.17. This indicates that around 3000m would be good. His Conduit Mare Profile is (4-6-5-10-8) with Speed 10, Stamina 18, Index 0.61 and Triads (15-21-23) implies that even longer would be fine. Altogether he may be slightly too dour to suit The Cup.
Something to be careful of: he's never won first up. Each of his wins were from backing up within 3 weeks of the previous. Basically he could finish just about anywhere in the field without it being terribly surprising. I see other candidates far more likelier to finish higher though and would think it likely he'll be somewhere between 5th and 15th.
|
Done!
Here's a link to each profile, if it's of interest: I suppose all that's left is my tips. Here's my Top 10 and my stab at the order in which they'll finish: 1st - CROSS COUNTER (GB) 2nd - IL PARADISO (USA) 3rd - DOWNDRAFT (IRE) 4th - MIRAGE DANCER (GB) 5th - PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 6th - FINCHE (GB) 7th - MAGIC WAND (IRE) 8th - RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) 9th - CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) 10th - MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) One of the first 3 to win; some combination of the first 5 to be the trifecta; some combination of the first 6 to be the First Four. I felt really bad about leaving out Surprise Baby and Vow And Declare.... I've ignored 'the system'. Hopefully I'm not punished for my treachery. I may post it one last time if there are any notable odds changes, or post-race to review. My tips might turn out to be rubbish but hopefully folk have enjoyed seeing my workings. Fingers crossed for a fair race and all horses and jockeys coming home safely. Good luck with your investments :) |
walkermac,
You got it done nice work. I sat here reading through them all again this morning. I can't believe you ignored the system. Its to your own peril :) Thanks for the hard work again this year. |
Thanks for the most informative site ever on this forum. Take a bow, mate.
|
My first 4 had Master of Reality, Southern France, Constantinople and Il Paradiso to win.
Sprinkled for the placings were Cross Counter, Prince of Arran, Finche, Raymond Tusk, Downdraft and Mirage Dancer. I just couldn't bring myself to include the aussie hopefules like surprise baby and vow and declare, they just seem over-supported by locals and overbet. Plus I think in their leadup runs they were either relatively soft fields or they had the most luck in those runs compared to others. Anyhow best of luck to everyone and seriously another magnificent thread again this year wmac, everyone certainly appreciates the lengths you go to and the information you've put together. Super effort. |
Absolutely splendid effort WM.
More power to you and I hope you Get your share of some of the exotics. |
Last one ahead of the race. Here are the official VOP prices half an hour out.
  Here are the top two rungs of 'the system' (those with a Stamina 17 figure in bold): CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) FINCHE (GB) MUSTAJEER (GB) VOW AND DECLARE SURPRISE BABY (NZ) MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) LATROBE (IRE) DOWNDRAFT (IRE) PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) Hardest race to pick for a while! |
Hope you got some of that trifecta the "system" threw up WM.
Top job. |
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I didn't mind my pick Cross Counter's run. I don't think what seemed to be a very slow pace would have suited. I think it was Constantinople who veered into his way early in the straight and caused him to lose momentum. It took him a while to rebalance and once he did - for a moment there - I thought he was going to blitz his way through. Unfortunately he started laying in and had to be straightened up. Depending on how this protest goes, I might have bet around all the winners! I'll do some reviewing late tonight :) |
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And this is why I use systems and not my own feel. I eliminated the winner just on personal choice. I made about $140 on the race but the day is looking very profitable. |
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Unfortunately, for the sake of posterity, the protest between 4 v 2 was upheld so finishing order 23, 12, 20, 3 - So no trifecta. But the system got the winner. Well done walkermac! |
Here is the 2019 Melbourne Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2GnR4YRNmE
Here are the final results:
The race was run in 3'24.76 - there have only been two slower this century: Americain on Slow and Makybe Diva's middle title, also on a Soft 5. It wasn't just due to the track though: last year's track was a Soft 6 but the race was 3.5s quicker. Makybe Diva's last Cup was also on a Soft 5 and was 5 seconds quicker. The 600m sectional was 34.75s - there have only been two quicker these past 10 years (since they were reported). 2012's Green Moon was in 34.07s and 2015's Prince Of Penzance was in 34.4s. They obviously had fuel left to burn. The field was very slow from the 2200m through to the 1000m mark. The winning horses were able to position themselves at the front of the pack during this slow section. They got a rest and made it difficult for others to run them down in the straight. The horses that were 2nd, 3rd and 4th at the 1400m mark went on to be 1st, 2nd and 3rd across the line. Because fatigue was not really a factor the field finished very close together; the first 12 finishers were within 4 lengths. The previous lowest place to finish within 4 lengths (this century) was 9th. The average distance a 12th place horse finished behind the winner prior to this renewal was 10.8 lengths. The winner was very atypical given that it wasn't really a staying contest. Of the past 20 winners, Vow And Declare had the highest: Dosage Index, Centre of Distribution, and Conduit Index; and the lowest: Stamina figure (equal), third triad and difference between third and first triad. These are all indicators that a horse is more suited to shorter rather than longer races. All credit to the placing jockeys: they turned the race into the kind of contest that would best suit their mounts. Brickbats for the other jockeys whom were unsuited by this turn of events: they just sat back and let it turn into a procession. Can't really look at barrier distances because data for several horses is clearly wrong. They currently have Constantinople doing a 200m sectional in just over 9 seconds and running 202m further, for example. 'The system' had the winner on its top rung (among 5 horses). Master Of Reality slipped off the second rung inside the last few minutes with his price wound out to $26. So "posterity" didn't lose the trifecta on a protest! :D The Conduit Mare Stamina 17 figure wasn't a factor this year given that stamina wasn't required. Aspro's Melbourne Cup System had the winner among its shortlist also, so it does indeed sift the best local candidates. The end! |
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