OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

Here's my go. Combining computer ratings and human tweaks:

1 - Fame Game
The deserved favourite, but probably not as strong a chance as the odds would suggest. The popularity is for two reasons: his run in the Caulfield Cup, and his run in the Tenno Sho. Both of these saw Fame Game absolutely flying late, spectacularly swerving through runners – but neither resulted in victory. Today’s barrier draw gives him opportunity to find good position, save gas and finish in his trademark style, but he’ll still need luck in running. His record at Group 1 & 2 races show how hit and miss his finishing style is, with only 1 victory (and 2 places) from 10 races. In his favour is his strong record at the distance (where many runners in this field have not even attempted it before), the strength of his competitors in Japanese staying racing and that – if he gets clear running – he has the best finish in the race. Should still be favourite, but at odds around $7-$8 (the < $4 on offer earlier in the week was just silly)

2 - Trip To Paris
The market is a bit closer to getting the price right with second favourite Trip To Paris. His run in the Caulfield Cup was nearly as eye-opening as Fame Game’s, but it resulted in an actual (narrow) second placing. Trip To Paris has one of the best records at the race distance with 3 wins and 2 placings from 6 starts. Boasting a far better record at group level (1w-2p/4 G1 and G2’s) and racing in a handier position, he probably deserves equal favouritism. I think my top 2 are a margin ahead of the rest of the field; so long as they get clear running they'll give it a shake.

3 - Criterion
Criterion has had a fantastic return to Australia: winning the Caulfield Stakes and finishing second to Winx in the Cox Plate. That he is one of the country’s premier middle distance runners (if not *the* premier racer) is not in question, what is in question: can he make 3200m? His victory at 2400m on a heavy track in the Australian Derby last year seems to imply he might; the record of his siblings, along with the record of his sire’s progeny, says that he’s pushing the limits as it is. He has a potentially great barrier for his running style and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Criterion leading midway down the straight. Whether he’ll have the legs or enough break on the fast finishers to stay on is another matter.

4 - Preferment
One of those fast finishers will likely be Preferment. Piloted by Australia’s most in-form jockey Hugh Bowman, who was so keen for the ride he basically hasn’t eaten this week to make the weight. Bowman’s last two rides on Preferment saw him first past the post, but they were at far shorter distances. As Criterion above, Preferment’s longest race (a victory) was over 2500m, but then only in 3yo company (the Victoria Derby). His trainer Chris Waller is in incredible form though and has shown he can target the big races.

5 - The United States
Stepping out to longer odds now, at $21 we find The United States. Hugh Bowman was actually aboard in his last race, which saw him break the Moonee Valley track record over 2500m. Hugh has shown great nous in selecting the likeliest rides, so that leaves Preferment ahead. But if you’re looking for a replacement rider, then one of the world’s best in Joao Moreira is a handy replacement. Has had one of the shortest careers in the field thus far (this is his first Group 1 race) but is certainly on the way up.

6 - Who Shot Thebarman
Third placegetter from last year’s Melbourne Cup. The winner Protectionist bombed this season and will be watching the race from a paddock someplace. Second placegetter Red Cadeaux will be in the field again, but at 10 years old is surely just here for a (near) victory lap – then again we said that last year and look what happened. Battling similarly we find Who Shot Thebarman, who hasn’t exactly been setting the track on fire this Spring. He doesn’t have a great record at the highest level of racing, but what he does have in his favour is experience at the distance, a pretty good barrier, a good record at this stage in his preparation, and leading trainer Chris Waller pulling the strings.

7 - Our Ivanhowe
Was praying for rain this week, but it looks like a dry day in Melbourne. Terrible barrier, no experience at the distance, but plenty of class. A placegetter in his last two Australian runs, he’s shown he has a big engine but is probably lacking a late finishing kick. If he chooses to go forward from his wide gate there is a chance of him being close to the lead into the straight. Then, if the early race speed wasn’t great, or any track bias is in his favour, or his chasers get held up, he could take some running down.

8 - Hartnell
Was actually the Melbourne Cup favourite up until Fame Game’s nomination, but has never really been part of the equation since. Has run and won at 3200m before but never proven adept at racing in the Victorian direction. Great at this stage of his preparation and backup, he’s only got a pass mark at Group 1/2 level though (1w-2p/7). This, along with a poor barrier and middling form of late, shuffles him down the order – in spite of his ability.

9 - Bondi Beach
The youngest and least experienced runner in the field. Only 5 races into his career, it’s a wonder he got an invite. He has certainly shown some talent: never finishing outside the top 2, nor further than 0.5 lengths from the leader (and beaten some proven stars along the way). One almost gets the feeling that this is more of a reconnaissance mission that a real tilt. Never ran in a field greater than 9 runners and drew an average barrier, but has plenty of potential. Likely too soon.

10 – Snow Sky
The topweight doesn’t have a great record in the Melbourne Cup, and this guy certainly isn’t demanding I include him in my top 10 picks. He’s part of a bunch (including Excess Knowledge, Almoonqith and Grand Marshal) that are at about the same level. Snow Sky gets the nod given he’s second up and shows every indication of running out the distance.