Today's selections:

Gosford
2/8
5/12, 13
6/6, 8, 10, 12

Rocky
1/9
3/4, 8
8/12

Mornington
2/5, 7
7/12

Geraldton
2/7
5/11
7/1

Yesterday's 17 selections were beaten for a profit of $20.25.

Today's selections:

Cranbourne
2/1, 9
3/10, 13
4/15

Ipswich
6/4, 8, 11

Coffs
2/11
5/2, 6, 8
6/11, 12
7/10, 11
8/1, 3, 4

Canberra
5/8
7/2, 6

Correction - Ipswich R6 nos 8 and 11 are not qualifiers. Both selections for Coffs R6 are scratched.

Not a bad day. From the 17 selections there 17 smiles for a profit of $18.14.

Today's selections:

Canterbury
8/7

Moonee Valley
4/2
6/12

Dombeen
3/9
4/4
6/12, 15
7/2. 7, 8

Morphetville
8/9

Scone
3/5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14
6/1
7/4, 12

Stony Creek
2/6
5/7

Corowa
4/10
5/2
6/10

Gold Coast
3/9
7/11
8/11

Ascot
3/9
7/2
8/4, 10

There were 31 smiles from the 31 selections for a profit of $26.71.

I forgot to list today's selections. If anyone's following the method - sorry!

There were 44 selections for 43 smiles for a profit of $7.46

Today's selections:

Gosford
1/4, 10
4/1, 6, 11

Nowra
2/7
3/2, 3
5/4, 9
6/13

Echuca
2/12, 13
7/4

Toowoomba
1/13
2/14
3/3, 11, 12
4/11
6/9, 12, 13

Pt Lincoln
4/4, 12
5/2
6/12
7/2, 14

Mt Barker
2/10
3/3

I wish everyone a Happy and profitable New Year.

A losing day. There was one accident from the 30 selections for a loss of $12.19.

To date (23 days of laying the seletions) there have been 826 smiles from 842 selections for a profit of $178.64.

Which at level stakes if you were backing them means POT of -21%.
I have done the numbers for all of 2012 and the POT using tattsbet prices is -35%.

the difference would be the better prices earned on BF when the long shots gets up.
this laying approach has legs - the difficulty is finding a way to get the bets on efficiently.
in 2012 there were 28083 selections or 77 per day across all gallops covered by tatts.

if anyone knows of bot that will automatically scrape them out of excel i'm all ears

You would need to code one or get someone to do it for you. The easiest way is to just get someone to do it on freelancer. It would probably cost you around $100-$200.

Out of interest if all the 842 selections had been hypothetically bet for $1 at the final price on Betfair's exchange then the return would have been $637 which includes a $200 winner for an overall loss of $205. There were 8 winners that paid less than $20 which is a bit of a worry because D.Scott's market rated them at $100 or higher.

I started recording the results on Friday 7 Dec but the first day of laying for the method was actually Thursday 6 Dec which unfortunately I omitted to transfer to my computer records that I keep on Notepad. On that day there were 24 selections for 24 smiles for a profit of $20.10, but because it's too much trouble to adjust the records I will ignore it.

yes i will try them.
i have used odesk in the past i have found their people very good

i had 2 filters
ds> 100
starts > 9

i will max out the price at 100 and see what happens

To recap the rules which I've changed/hopefully improved from the original.

1) minimum of 9 starters,
2) finished 7th or worse at last start,
3) not resuming from a spell now or at previous start,
4) must not have been credited with 3.5 points or more in worksheet's Form column. This would have eliminated at least three accidents that I'm aware of.

I forgot to include the most important rule:

Must be $100 or more in Don Scott's market.

Micheal,

How about 1 more filter. Only lay those that have a bookies odds of $20 or higher.

Although this means you will will get less as the betfair odds will be longer it will also drop out those selections which won at less then $20. Its also a good complimentary filter to use as confirmation that the don scott markets are not out of whack with reality.

The problem with this filter is you need to do it at race time which does limit the system.

U.B, you're right about having to be the computer, which does not suit me. I've had some profitable smiles that were high in the bookie's market and also the TAB's market. I would assume with some (hopefully) confidence there is a good reason(s) why D.Scott has rated them so poorly. However, it doesn't always work that way. Time will tell...

Today's selections:

Rosehill
2/3
6/11
8/14

Flemington
2/13
3/2
6/14
7/3

Gold Coast
1/10
2/1
3/4, 9
4/10
5/2
8/13

Morphetville
3/11
4/5
6/10
8/4, 14

Inverell
4/11
5/2, 3

Port Mac
5/8, 9, 10
6/8, 12

Ascot
2/6
3/6, 11
4/11
7/7, 8, 11
8/2, 3, 6, 10, 12, 16
9/1

Hanging Rock
2/7

Terang
3/1, 2, 5
6/9

Mornington
3/3, 8
7/7

You're right about not being a computer, it wouldn't suit me either. hehe :D


But seriously, you are going great guns with this mg. Well done. Keep it up.

Hi, T.O.

Yes, it's not going too bad. Today, there's been one accident so far (Pt Mac 5/8 - Unitab's sole 100 pointer), yet it's about $10 in front at the moment.

Correction - Rosehill 8/14 is not a selection because there's less than 9 runners in the race.

A nightmare. From the 46 selections there were 4 accidents for a loss of $70.56.

There have now been 18 accidents from the 888 selections for a profit of $108.08. There's a lot of rebuilding to do, hopefully it's not the beginning of the end.

michaelg,

bad runs happen. Just don't stop following this now because of it. Stopping now is what 99% of other punters would do.

I think that this is excellent advice for any longshot laying method, UB. I have previously posted in this thread that where ratings and the market are way out of whack the market will prove more accurate more often. A bot would be needed and I see that TheBetEngine is still available for $16 per month.

As ever, no offence intended in any way to any poster on here, but laying outsiders 1 out is doomed to failure, as I pointed out at the start.
This particular method has a fantastic strike rate of 98% and is officially in trouble. The risk so far (@ $30 per lay) has been $26640 & the profit is just over $100, the risk/reward ratio is way out.

Good luck if you stick with it.

After yesterday's disaster I'm considering applying a price-limit for the selections, say of $50 or whatever. However I expect to continue as is, but limiting the price is just an option.

Yesterday's four accidents paid for the Win:

Morphetville 8/14 - $50
Pt Mac 5/8 - $9
Pt Mac 6/8 $13
Ascot 9/1 - $27

Mark, yes, laying outsiders is fraught with danger, however most of the method's accidents haven't been outsiders but been fancied in the real market, but unfortunately not Don Scott's.

I'll continue as is because it might just be a weak phase the method's currently going through, but as mentioned above limiting the prices is an option to consider.

Speedy Ben, fortunately this restriction can be applied to S.P., even early in the day.

Today's selections:

Newcastle
4/1, 7

Sale
3/3

Dombeen
4/10

Narrogin
1/4
2/4
4/9, 10
6/9, 10
7/9, 10

Murray Bridge
5/5, 6, 10
6/1
8/7, 8, 9

Sapphire Coast
4/12
7/11

Michael
I see where you can limit your max odds but I can't see where you can limit your min odds at SP. Am I missing it?
My comment was in relation to the suggestion that you only lay over 20.0.

Sorry, Speedy Ben. You're right, I've never limited the odds on laying and when I saw the facility I assumed incorrectly.

That is now out of the question - pity.

There were 20 selections today for 20 smiles for a profit of $14.23.

Today's selections:

Wyong
1/5
2/4, 11
4/6
5/9
6/7

Rocky
1/5
5/5
7/3, 4

Geraldton
3/2, 5, 6
7/7

Albury
3/1
5/2, 11
6/1
7/2

Kyneton
3/4
4/14
7/7
8/2

From the 22 selections there were 22 smiles for a profit of $20.98.

Nice work.

Yes, U.B, wasn't a bad day, it's slowly building back up. The highest it's ever been was on 31 Dec with a profit of $190.74, it's currently in profit of $143.29...still some way to go.

Today's selections:

Wangaratta
5/7
6/8

Ipswich
4/5
7/13

Esperance
1/3
2/5
3/10
4/6, 11
7/6

Port Mac
1/11
3/5
5/8
8/4, 6, 10, 12

Tamworth
2/2, 3
4/3
5/8, 15
6/7
8/12, 13

Cranbourne
7/5
8/6

Due to a late scratching Wangaratta race 5 is not a qualifying race.

Not a good day. From the 26 selections there were 25 smiles for a loss of $7.60.

Today's selections:

Warwick Farm
3/6
7/11
8/9, 12

Caulfield
8/1, 2

Eagle Farm
1/16
3/12
4/10
5/5
6/7
7/7
8/10, 12

Morphetville
6/2, 3, 7, 10
7/10

Kembla
1/4, 10
2/3, 8, 12
3/1, 7, 8
5/10
6/10

Parkes
3/6
7/8

Pakenham
1/2
2/5
3/3, 4, 7
4/10

Gold Coast
3/2, 11
6/13
7/1, 2, 4, 7

Toowoomba
4/6, 10, 11
5/5, 7
6/4, 5, 7

Asot
4/4, 7
5/4
6/6, 11
7/6

Amendment - Pakenham R1 is not a qualifying race because after scratchings there are less than 9 runners.

Correction - there is only one selection in Toowoomba R6, which is no.2.

Today there were 52 smiles from 53 selections for a profit of $10.40.