Super Rugby Round 4
 

Round 4 will again test the new ratings and adjust where teams have moved up or down compared to last season. There have been some major changes in Rounds 1-3. Wait until round 5 to consider betting.

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani

Current market - Super Rugby

Crusaders $3
Chiefs $4
Hurricanes $12
Jaguares $13
Stormers $15
Blues $23
Sharks $23
Highlanders $34
Brumbies $41
Lions $126
Rebels $151
Reds $151
Bulls $201
Waratahs $201
Sunwolves $501

Super Rugby Round 5
 

We are getting used to adjustments during the first four rounds because teams change a lot over the break. This year's adjustments were among the largest ever. I think we now have a good understanding for this year's teams.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 6
 

After Round 5, I think we need to be cautious for at least another round. There were unexpected upsets in Round 5. Surprisingly, the Australian teams are now in the bottom half of the combined table. Lets see if the teams justify their ratings in Round 6 or make some moves. Bet conservatively.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 7
 

I think the ratings have settled. My favourites won 6 of 7 games, so we are as ready as we will ever be after adjusting for between-season changes. The Sunwolves even kept their opponent under 60 points for a change.

Good luck with Round 7.

Ray Stefani

Super Virus Round 8
 

The 14 day quarantine required after travel to Australia and New Zealand have caused SANZAR to cancel Super Rugby for "awhile", but we don't know how long "awhile" is. Round 8 was to have 7 matches, six of which involved international travel. The English Premier League says it will resume 4 April, but all matches there are withing England.

Round 7 went well, except for cancelling the Jaguars-Highlanders match. My favourites won 5 of 6. Two values bets cashed for Bulls and Sharks backers.

I think I see a value bet. According to US authorities, you have a 99.9% probability of surviving the flu. According to extensive testing in Korea, you have a 99.4% probability of surviving COVID-19 (they didn't just test people with severe symptoms). Since the sports leagues and airlines seem to think you will soon drop dead if you go to a sporting event and do something fun, I like the 99.4% probability of living. I would say that enjoying your life is a value bet.

I am trying to type this from 2 meters away, but my arms are not long enough.

Stay healthy,

Ray Stefani

Still no Super Rugby but NZ teams will play domestic series from 13 June
Our five Super Rugby teams - Blues,,Chiefs,,Hurricanes,,Crusaders & Highlanders will play each other home & away over 10 weeks,,with two matches every weekend in the 'Super Rugby Aotearoa’ tournament.

Starting up Super Rugby
 

It'll be really interesting if one round-robin of Super Rugby Aotearoa is played in empty stadiums and one is played with crowds to see what the psychological home advantage of a home crowd is. It'll be interesting to see how teams have changed in fitness and cohesion. Australia may have a similar domestic round-robin.

I had to look up "Aotearoa" which turns out to mean "New Zealand" in Maori. I found out that the Maori word for "Australia" is "Ahitereiria", although I figure that there are some unprintable names the Maori use when they play against Aussie teams.

Stay well everyone.

Aotearoa Round 2
 

I thought I would have a go at the Aotearoa Super Rugby, all-New Zealand competition. I updated my schedule too late to get it to you last week. All teams started where they left off after Round 7. I had the Highlanders as underdogs at home but worthy of a value bet which cashed nicely. I had the Blues to win at home, which they did, but there was no value bet on that game. This week, the Highlanders are favoured due to home advantage although they are lower rated. The crowds were huge last week, so that ought to give some home advantage. We have to see how the layoff affected the Crusaders.

I was curious about the name Aotearoa. Thanks to Google Translate and Google, I learned that Ao Tea Roa means a Long White Cloud. An early Polynesian boat noticed a long white cloud on the horizon and figured there must be an island there. That’s how they found North Island, so they named New Zealand Ao Tea Roa, Long White Cloud. I think the competition ought to be called Te Tini Nui, which means The Huge Crowd because that’s what they had last week. It was really fun to see a live sports event with people enjoying themselves.

Stay well, everyone!

Aotearoa Round 3
 

It's great to have live rugby again. Here are the next two games. Australia's version starts next month.