Today's selections:

Coffs Harbour
2/10
3/8, 9, 15
4/5, 7, 10
5/6, 7, 10, 14

Warrrnambool
3/2, 6
4/4, 5, 10, 15, 17
5/5
7/8
8/10

Gilgandra
8/7

Sun Coast
6/2, 9, 12
7/12
8/3, 8, 15, 16

Kilmore
2/10

Pinjarra
1/4, 9, 10, 14
2/6
3/2, 3, 12, 13, 14
4/3, 11, 13
5/14
6/1, 12
8/12, 16, 17

From the 48 selections there were 48 smiles for a profit of $31.05.

There have now been 1037 smiles from 1057 selections (a strike rate of 98%) for a profit of $177.14.

Excellent result Michael. I run a similar laying method on UK races which I started in July. After 1057 selections there had been 1039 smiles. Uncanny, I thought.
I lay to a liability of 20% of my bank and increase the liability amount in line with the bank. My bank has increased 347% since July with the biggest drawdown being 23% of the bank.

It's truly amazing that the number of our selections and smiles are almost identical, and the profit is also worthwhile. Let's hope it continues.

Today's selections are:

Moruya
2/7
5/14
7/8, 12
8/2, 10

Cessnock
2/2
3/3, 5, 12, 15
5/7, 12

Stony Creek
2/1
3/1, 7, 9, 13

Hi Michael, going well I see mate - please you kept at this one I am guessing?

Slightly different angle here (hope you don't mind)...
Of all the win systems / scenarios you have plotted using Ns or Don Scott, which would you say was the most simplest + showed most promise??

Cheers LG

Hi, L.G.

I prefer the above method simply because there is a fair bit of action and I like laying...and at the moment it is in profit.

There have been other methods, mainly betting, but it does not take me long to lose interest because they are not Lay methods even though a couple of the Place methods have shown a profit.

I'm now looking at another Lay method at the top end of the market which mainly lays the short-priced faves, which I'll start today on a new thread.

Nice one mate. Shhhmo-kin, Smokin' Joe ! LG

Not a good day. From the 19 selections there was one accident for a loss of $8.45. Still, it's not too damaging.

Today's selections:

Wagga
8/10

Echuca
4/2

Townsville
2/10
3/1, 10
6/8
7/8, 10

Today's eight selections were eight smiles for a very small profit of $3.76.

Am hoping you will come up with a 'Collar' strategy, one of these days... i.e. win a little more with a Cap an' a Floor

LG

L,G,

I've been looking at other enhancements/filters but nothing positive so far, and I'm somewhat hesitant in reducing the action.

Today's selections:

Warwick Farm
3/11
4/9
8/8

Bunbury
2/1
4/2, 5, 7
7/2
9/9, 12, 16

Devenport
1/4, 6, 8
4/10, 12
7/8, 11
8/10, 13, 14

Gawler
5/1, 10, 12
8/7

Sandown
6/3
7/12

Thanks MG,

Please ignore all comers regards changing what you do or the prolificacy of your ideas (including me)... you consistently win the day and long may it continue!

LG

Hi, L.G.

It's good for us all that we share ideas and suggestions. Someone might, even when least expected, come up with a brilliant and profitable one, or at least interest/trigger our grey matter to tick over.

Today there were 27 selections for 27 smiles for a profit of $18.94. The method's now hit an all-time high of $199.84. It seems it takes two steps forward and then one backwards.

Althoough I feel like I am just repeating myself I have to say

Nice work again.

Thats a coverage of at least 6 losers which for long shots is quite a good start for live testing a system.

Michael
Based on my own experience I would think that a bank 5 times your liability would be a conservative and safe one, barring a mathematically unlikely occurrence. In that case you have doubled your bank. Congratulations.

Good stuff mg. Keep it up. :)

Many thanks for the encouragement, gents.

Even though the method's currently $199.84 in profit, my real profit is much more than that because when I'm at my computer I'm often tempted (and more often than not succumb) to have large bets even though I record them as a standard $33. However, whenever I think of increasing the size of the standard bet I get cold feet, but that may soon change...maybe not.

Michael
2 forward and one back is a good result. Once you get used to it you can be satisfied with it. Just a comment, not advice.

Michael
With regard to increasing your basic bet ....
What would the biggest drawdown on your bank have been following the rules that are now in place, may i ask?

There are many and varied ways of increasing your bets (if you want to and feel comfortable doing it).

A few are:
- Using a percentage of your bank - maybe changing it daily or per race.
- Doubling your bank and then raising the bet but not by double - slowly reduce the % of bank your risking while, at the same time, increasing your stakes.

There's many more.

S.B,

the first day of the method was Friday 7 Dec, in which a profit of $50.74 was made but the very next day it suffered a loss of $45.94 resulting in an overall profit of $4.82. This is the date when the method has been at its lowest. However the method began a day earlier on Thurs 6 Dec for a profit of $20.10 which for some unknown reason I did not record here, so I've omitted it from the results. The method has from Fri 7 Dec changed slightly which purposely has made me less uncomfortable.

T.O,

I've today increased the liability to $66 per bet. For convenience I'm maintaining a multiple of $33 and will record the results as if the selections have been layed for $33, not $66. I know Maria limited the size of her daily bet according to her bank but she was laying on the exchange for a predetermined profit, whilst on S.P. it's a predetermined loss. However it currently interests me and will probably give it more thought.

Today's selections:

Gosford
1/8
6/10

Penola
2/3
6/4
7/11

Albany
1/6
2/8, 13
3/5
4/8, 9
7/10, 11
8/7, 10, 13

Sun Coast
7/10

Ballarat
2/8
3/5, 13
4/9
5/1
6/12

I reckon doubling your profit and then also doubling the bet is not such a good idea.

Let's say you have a $300 bank and $30 liability (10% of bank). If you double your bank to $600 then I don't think you should keep laying at the same liability of 10% (in this case $60 liability).

I would slowly reduce the percentage of bank your laying with until you get to 2% or maybe 5%. In the above instance I would start laying to say 8% liability of the $600 making each bet $48 liability.

You are now raising your stakes but in a smaller proportion than your bank is increasing. As time goes on this would then give you more leeway by losing less of your bank should the method hit a bad trot.

Anyway, that's my 2 bobs worth (which is about all it is worth) :rolleyes:

How about this for a new turn on an old turkey...

1. Double the bank: 300=>600
2. Take 50% profit off the table = 150
3. Stake / Liability up 50% => 45

A bird in the hand and a better crack at the bush? LOL !!

LG

That is a very sound old method, I reckon, LG. Always believed in it, never tried it !!

The only thing is you are still risking the same percentage of bank. Unless of course you count the $150 as the start of a second bank in case the first should fly away.

Yes, still 10% of bank but at least not double the original bet which was your initial concern.
You being pretty slick with the 'double-barrel bank trick', what might your suggestion be in this respect?

Perhaps for Plan B...
1. Double the bank: 300=>600
2. Split into 2 banks(1 Reserve) and back to step 1
3. If we double again, split again and take 1 bank off the table
4. if we loose the bank, Reserve kicks in and it's back to step 1.

A double play keeps the reeper away?

LG

Sounds good but I actually like the 450 / 150 one better. That way you are at least raising your stakes but, at the same time, starting your reserve bank to flourishing.

More of a capital = build the stack man,
Rather than income = take some profits?

Flourish rather than nourish?

LG

PS did you end up shipping in that new kitchen gadget?? Recently I had the pleasure of taking 4 x $100 lots off the table and actually spending some of it on a mini trip with the missus plus some left to go again. Money well spent and gives me a little more length on the rope connected to my dog collar etc etc

Very nice LG. In the good books has gotta be better than the opposite.

Yes. I got the dishwasher but now we have put in an insurance claim for the water damage which has been accepted however I may probably now need to pay the excess of $200 and you can guess where that will be coming from. :(

A bad day - from the 21 selections there was an accident for an overall loss of $14.30.

Sorry mg. Every time I say your doing well you always lose the next day. I think that has happened on any thread where I've said it to you. I'm serious - no kidding.

I will refrain from wishing you luck on any further methods including this one but I will be looking on and getting involved in any other queries or discussions.

Ocho
Do you think it's the horses or the jockeys that read your posts?

Probably both plus the trainers and stable hands :D

Hi, The Ocho, if the positions were reversed I probably would also feel some guilt.

I remember some time ago one of my friends was suffering from an on-and-off painful ailment and everytime I wished him the best, the pain would soon return. This happened three times and I began to suspect it was my fault for causing it.

I dreaded wishing him well and told him so, but he replied it was pure coincidence - and he was right. The "bad luck" immediately ended and the problem is now non-existent.

T.O, wish me well for today.

Today's selections:

Ballina
1/14
2/12
3/5, 8, 13
4/3
5/5
6/2

Cranbourne
4/8
6/7

Mornington
5/8
7/1

Canberra
5/6
6/11
7/8
8/7, 12, 13

Ipswich
4/3
5/5

Port Lincoln
5/10
7/5

Esperance
3/4, 5, 8
7/1, 4, 10

H mg. I just want to wish you well.

Thanks, T.O.

Correction - there is no qualifier in Ipswich R4. No.3 was a last start winner and is also $41 in D. Scott's market.

Not the best of days. There were 23 smiles from 24 selections for a not too damaging loss of $4.03.

Today's selections:

Eagle Farm
1/8
6/12
8/6, 10

Gold Coast
1/14
2/4, 7, 12
3/8, 16
4/4, 9
5/16
6/9
7/9, 11
8/11, 13, 14

Flemigton
4/9
5/7
7/8

Morphetville
4/9
5/10
6/8
8/1

Rosehill
6/3

Newcastle
4/2, 9, 13
6/1

Glen Innes
1/8, 13
2/4, 8
3/5, 16
4/8
5/6, 11
6/2, 14

Queanbeyan
4/4, 6
7/8, 11

Bairnsdale
3/1, 5
4/5
6/7

Toowoomba
1/6, 11
2/6, 12, 13

Ascot
2/5
7/8