Hi Kenchar,

running it throo my database based on STAB results, over the past 20 months, I get

742 races 

2226 bets   173 wins

               s/r = 7.77% per bet 

               s/r = 23% per race

profit      -$670

POT         -30%

LRO         55

MaxDD       $691.20

it performs slightly "better" (ie loses less) if you restrict to fast / good / dead tracks.

Cheers,
Chris.

Thanks Stebbo another theory blown.

Cheers

you bet on track kenchar ,maybe you could refine this idea by only betting in races where the bookies are keen to lay the fav and seemingly trying to give you free money ???????????

Good thought Tragic will start keeping records over the next couple of months.
Cheers

FAVOURITES IN SMALL FIELDS UPDATE

a)RULES
Must be favourite
Field size of 7 runners or less.

Selections: 191
Winners: 89
Strike Rate: 46.60%
Average Dividend $2.17
Profit: $2.10
POT: 1.10%

b)RULES
Must be favourite
Field size of 7 runners or less.
Less than $2.00 on tote.

Selections: 55
Winners: 36
Strike Rate: 65.45%
Average Dividend $1.61
Profit: $3.00
POT: 5.45%

Interesting to note that horses showing $1.50 or less on the tote have a 100% place strike rate for a win POT of 28.50% and place POT of 7.00% although there were only 20 of these.

For those who would like to know about longshots in small fields....

Greater than $5.00 on tote.
POT: -26.67%

Greater than $10.00 on tote.
POT: -24.95%

Greater than $15.00 on tote.
POT: -4.06%

Greater than $20.00 on tote.
Selections: 234
Winners: 7
Strike Rate: 2.99%
Average Dividend $39.61
Profit: $43.30
POT: 18.50%

Greater than $30.00 on tote.
Selections: 136
Winners: 2
Strike Rate: 1.47%
Average Dividend $79.35
Profit: $22.70
POT: 16.69%

RULES
Must be favourite
Field size of 7 runners or less.

Selections: 203
Winners: 96
Strike Rate: 47.29%
Average Dividend $2.19
Profit: $7.60
POT: 3.74%

Profit comes from 3.5 winners.

Latest Update:

RULES
Must be favourite
Field size of 7 runners or less.

Selections: 220
Winners: 102
Strike Rate: 46.36%
Average Dividend $2.20
Profit: $4.80
POT: 2.18%

...and then their was the punter who had $200,000 to win on all of Lonhro's races this year. He didn't win a bean.

'Never bet odds-on' ?

Don't see how he could have lost unless he got the worst possible prices.

Lonhro this year
10 starts
8 wins
profit $2.10
POT 21.00%
Ave Div $1.51 (tab prices)

The place POT is 5% as well.

Cant remember the exact figure but there was an arcticle in Sydney Daily Tele, that the guy was something like $800,000 up before the cox. Does that sound about right CP.