Okay so lets expand on the track condition as a possible filter using data to date.

Total results for all data to date up to and including Thurs 12/5:

OPTION 1 (Courier Mail 3rd fav >= 6.00, 4th fav >= 8.00 and 5th fav >= 10.00)
Return 756.10
Outlay 570.00
Profit $186.10
POT% 32.65%

OPTION 2 (Courier Mail with races dropped where 5th fav is same odds as 6th fav)
Return 582.80
Outlay 320.00
Profit $262.80
POT% 82.13%

OPTION 3 (same as Option 1 but using WEB2BET site)
Return 121.00
Outlay 102.00
Profit $19.00
POT 19%

Now If I separate these by track condition of HEAVY, SLOW, DEAD, GOOD we get:

HEAVY OPTION 1
Return 34.00
Outlay 47.00
Profit -$13.00
POT% -27.66%

HEAVY OPTION 2
Return 34.00
Outlay 35.00
Profit -$1.00
POT% -2.86%

HEAVY OPTION 3
Return -
Outlay 12.00
Profit -$12.00
POT -100%

SLOW OPTION 1
Return 152.20
Outlay 101.00
Profit $51.20
POT% 50.69%

SLOW OPTION 2
Return 109.30
Outlay 57.00
Profit $52.30
POT% 91.75%

SLOW OPTION 3
Return 62.40
Outlay 23.00
Profit $39.40
POT 171%

DEAD OPTION 1
Return 389.00
Outlay 321.00
Profit $68.00
POT% 21.18%

DEAD OPTION 2
Return 300.40
Outlay 172.00
Profit $128.40
POT% 74.65%

DEAD OPTION 3
Return -
Outlay 22.00
Profit -$22.00
POT -100%

GOOD OPTION 1
Return 180.90
Outlay 101.00
Profit $79.90
POT% 79.11%

GOOD OPTION 2
Return 139.10
Outlay 56.00
Profit $83.10
POT% 148.39%

GOOD OPTION 3
Return 58.60
Outlay 45.00
Profit $13.60
POT 30%

Sample data for OPTION 3 is only 3 days long so little can be gleaned at this stage from that data.

Looking at this now, maybe there is something in dropping HEAVY tracks?

I am hoping to get this sample data to a full month where I have checked at least 3 - 4 days per week to a sample data range of 20+ days of racing. Then hopefully I will be able to get a good idea of some effective filters to apply.

Heck I may even open an online account and put a dollar or 2 down!

Max
You are targeting the 3-4 & 5th favorite. Good tracks account for two thirds of all races. Good tracks actually favour the favorite and the second favorite. track condition other than good favour the 3-4-5 & 6th favs. It is only a slight bias less than 1% in all. 14.62% on 13.99% is a 4.5% increase for 3rd fav. 11.2% on 10.31% is an 8.63% increase for 4th fav. 5th favs results are consistent. 6th fav 6.68% on 5.66% is an 18% increase. These are the best results for slow,heavy,fast and dead tracks compared with good tracks.
I would not exclude track conditions

Hi Max,

Congratulations on what you have achieved so far and may it continue to prosper!

I have had a look at the qualifiers you have put up so far and have looked at only considering races with >=11 runners. It appears to increase your profit and POT% considerably.

I also consider only City meetings with >= 11 runners and this too increased your profit and POT%.

Obviously with so few selections the trends may not continue but may be they will - who is to know.

Let's see what happens over the next month or two.

Max
your best filter for these is.
DO NOT BET IT FAV IS <$2.50 on tote. You may even push it out to $3. With form, (no maidens no 1st uppers etc) and under $2 it is the favorite's race. Between $2 and $3 it is the fav and 2nd fav's races so long as the second fav price is <$4. From $3 fav price the strike rate for the 3-4 & 5 favs increase from their average strike rate. Beton

Selections for Sat 14th May

OPTION 1
20110514SAT BELMONT1, numbers 2 for 5 units, 7 for 4 units, and 5 for 3 units
*20110514SAT BELMONT5, numbers 10 for 5 units, 7 for 4 units, and 6 for 3 units
20110514SAT CAULFIELD6, numbers 4 for 5 units, 8 for 4 units, and 1 for 3 units
*20110514SAT DOOMBEN3, numbers 12 for 4 units, 2 for 4 units, and 7 for 4 units
20110514SAT DOOMBEN4, numbers 11 for 4 units, 2 for 4 units, and 5 for 3 units
20110514SAT DOOMBEN6, numbers 4 for 4 units, 10 for 4 units, and 2 for 3 units
20110514SAT DOOMBEN7, numbers 5 for 5 units, 7 for 4 units, and 4 for 3 units
*20110514SAT SCONE2, numbers 5 for 4 units, 1 for 4 units, and 3 for 3 units
*20110514SAT SCONE3, numbers 6 for 4 units, 4 for 4 units, and 7 for 3 units
*20110514SAT SCONE4, numbers 7 for 5 units, 8 for 4 units, and 5 for 3 units

OPTION 2
As above but drop the * races

OPTION 3
20110514SAT CAULFIELD6
*20110514SAT CAULFIELD7
20110514SAT DOOMBEN4
20110514SAT DOOMBEN6
20110514SAT DOOMBEN7
*20110514SAT SCONE3
*20110514SAT SCONE4
20110514SAT SCONE6

Thanks for the input Beton and Try Try. I will take at these ideas further next week and report back.

I'm also going to check into the suggestion on another thread about the 1st and 2nd favs more likely to win the 1st few races of the day when compared to the last few races. See if that increases or decreases my POT. Stay tuned.

Looks like a lot of action tomorrow. Let the maths roll on!

Results for FRI 13th MAY (very very bad!)

OPTION 1
Return -
Outlay 34.00
Profit -$34.00
POT% -100.00%

OPTION 2
Return -
Outlay 12.00
Profit -$12.00
POT% -100.00%

OPTION 3
Return 17.60
Outlay 79.00
Profit -$61.40
POT -78%

And just when I thought I was getting on top of this system!

Hi Max,

Any updated selection numbers with 3 races having scratchings? i.e. Doomben 3, Scone 2 & 4.

No. This is a set and forget system. Plus, I checked those races tonight the winners were earlier in the race or the next horse and was still in the 3 picks anyhow.

Results today (BAD!):
OPTION 1
Return 90.30
Outlay 116.00
Profit -$25.70
POT% -22.16%

OPTION 2
Return 45.70
Outlay 58.00
Profit -$12.30
POT% -21.21%

OPTION 3
Return 90.00
Outlay 93.00
Profit -$3.00
POT -3%

On a side note, betting 5th on ALL races that qualify with 5% of the bank:

Start $245.60
Current $271.60
Profit $26.00
POT% 10.59%