Anyone with a Unitab data base?
 

I have been on and off looking at a certain Unitab Lay system. Yesterday would have been a good day (two accidents, each at odds-on) and today it would currently be in profit as there have been no accidents.

The rules are, for anyone with a Unitab data base. I suppose the easiest way to check the results would be to back the selections and not layed?

1 ) Minimum of 11 starters.
2 ) Outright top points in Unitab rankings.
3 ) Bottom half of the field in TAB saddle cloth numbers.

The remaining selections in today's races are:

Tamworth
6/7

Ballarat
8/7

Mt Gambier
6/8

Geraldton
1/10
8/9

Cranbourne
7/9

Hobart
8/10

Thanks in advance.

Out of interest there was one accident from the seven selections mentioned in the original post.

If $30 had been layed on each selection assuming the S.P. price was obtained, then the profit would have been $19.80. However, laying them for the minimum of $30 on S.P. the profit (which I fortunately made) was $79.57.

I made a mistake with Saturday's results. One of the accidents was Rosehill R3 no.8. - Pane in the Glass. There were only 8 starters in the race which means it was not a genuine selection. So there was only one accident.

I'll give the Lay system another go today.

Two selections:

Orange
3/14
5/8

If both selections turn out to be accidents, today's loss will be $60. However the method will still be in profit because it is currently up $79.57.

Correction - the venue for today's two selections is Terang and not Orange.

I once more have my back problem. The pain can be verging on suicidal, and am currently on pain killers which makes me quite woozy, hence the mistake - at least that's my excuse.

Both selections were beaten for a profit of $13.40.

Congrats --- hope that makes the back feel a bit better. Can be real b****s I know.

Thanks for the concern, Merriguy.

Yes, the win is heartening but unfortunately the pain is now excruciating as the effects of the pain killers have worn off. It feels as if the right side of my back, my right nugget and my right leg are having the fiercest of competitions to see which can be the most painful. Thank God it's only temporary...

Are you in SE Qld Michaelg???

Jose, no, I'm in the Northern Beaches of Sydney.

If someone could run the rules through a Unitab database I think it may look promising.


What about a staking method? Any suggestions or just the flat stake liability to $30 min on BF?

Maybe a focus on Maiden races would be a suggestion where the rating is poor. The rules run through a database search would be helpful yes!

Marksto2, if the method continues to be successful I will most likely increase the size of the bet. However, I don't know if there is too much logic to the method even though a plausible argument can be made to support it. But who knows...and so far so good.

Today's selections:

Taree
3/13

Geelong
4/12

Townsville
1/9
4/9

Fingers crossed.

Correction - its Townsville R2 no.9, not R1 no.9.

I'm currently on pain killers, so I'll put it down to their effects.

A very bad day today. 2 accidents for a loss of $52.61.

After three days it's in profit of $40.33.

Interesting result Townsville race2 ..Just shows the price variability on Betfair..The lay selection Fraction was 3.2 favorite on Betchoice . driftingto 3.6 SP 3.5 ..Unitab 5.00 fixed . Tote Paying 6.7 .On Betfair drifted from 5.4 ..( I layed it at 5.5).. Remarkably it drifted to 14.00 with BFSP 13.4 . I hedge a small amount at 13.00. to cover my bet.. The point i am making is any system requires a great degree of common sense.Like any position betting or laying if a position becomes available to lay or back a price way over or under the reasonable value then you have to take it.

Can anyone offer any filters to increase the strike rate maybe? Larger fields or certain race types?

1annandale1, good point, but not everyone would act upon it.

A few years ago one of my friends backed a football team (Benfica) at $50 to win the Champions League or one of the European comps. Benfica made it to the finals, and I told my friend that if he backed the other team for a certain amount he would obtain a good profit whatever the result of the game. His reply was "no, with me its all or nothing".

I suppose its up to the individual.

As a matter of interest, due to a late scratching Townsville R2 only had 10 runners (the minimum for the system is 11), but having already placed the bet I was unable to cancel it.

Michael, I was going to put you onto someone to put your back right.
Know exactly what you are going thru with it, as have had much the same.
I do however have 3 words that will help you................

STRETCH
STRETCH
STRETCH......

The more the better.

Thanks, Jose.

It's a nerve in my back which I believe is the sciatic nerve. It has spread to my groin and leg.

I checked the net for sciatica and was recommended a particular stretching exercise. I tried it but I don't think its done any good.

If you could hear me you would swear someone was torturing me or that I was having one continual orgasm. When not on medication the pain is THAT bad.

Mate, I feel your pain.
I was locked up and bent over like a half opened pocket knife for 6 months about 10 years ago.
After a scan it was revealed that I had ruptured 2 discs, somewhere around L3 and L4 from memory.
The specialist I went to wanted to operate on me the next week. I told him that this was a big decision and I would have to talk it over with the family, and he got quite shirty. (still maintain he just wanted a new set of golf clubs)
Finished up going to a back rehab course at the Wesley Hospital for 2 weeks.

There was about a dozen in the 2 week course, 3 of these people had had back operations.
One bloke was a bit better after the op.
One woman was about the same as before the op.
And one poor soul was just about wrecked, she was a lot worse off after the op.
The scarring in and around the back is sometimes worse than the original complaint.
Glad now I didn't let him open me up.
Having said all that, they have come a long way with back ops in the last 10 years or so, but my advice FWIW is if they offer you an op put it off as long as you can.
I have been stretching every morning ever since and as long as I don't overdo things it is quite manageable.
Enough of me, I do hope you come good soon.
Stretch.....Stretch....Stretch.

Hi Jose. You're comments are very much appreciated.

I had the current problem about six months ago, and fortunately it healed itself in about three weeks, so it was/is not as bad as yours. I've also heard that acupuncture can be quite beneficial.

From today I will begin a stretching program.

Thanks again.

A couple of my friends with back probs found walking on one of those motorised

tread mills that are programmed to go incline & decline, at various speeds,

worked wonders for their pinched back nerves.

They hired them for $10.00 a week to see if that is what they needed, before buying them

Hi Michael,


Do you have today's selections out of interest? I hope you are feeling better. I had that pain before after injuring myself through exercise and boy was it real pain so I can feel your pain mate.

Cheers,
Mark

Thanks Bhagwan.

I work-out at a gym. That's where I think I caused my problem because I mainly use heavy weights.

There are tread mills but can only be adjusted to an incline angle.

When I return I will do stretch and incline tread mill exercises.

Thanks Marksto2.

It worries me to lay any horse that is the top Unitab selection without applying any logical filters.

However over the three days of laying the system, there have been 13 selections for 10 smiles for a profit of $40.33, so who knows. It will now probably crash.

Today's selections are:

Eagle Farm
2/13
5/10

Warwick Farm
3/15

Wyong
5/17
7/13 - this is a selection in my Place system.

Murray Bridge
2/7
9/16



The scratchings for Narrogin and Bunbury haven't yet been loaded. Assuming there are a minimum of 11 runners; the selections haven't been scratched and that they remain in the bottom half of the final acceptances, then the selections will be:

Narrogin
7/8

Bunbury
1/14
2/11
3/15
5/14
6/11
8/10

Hi Michael,

Many thanks, I am just trying to think if there are certain races where the ratings are not reliable where the top rater would consistently lose ie maybe Maiden races only or early 2 yr olds.

It would be great if someone could run it through a database to verify this wouldn't it.

I'm ending the system because of today's two accidents, I didn't keep any records but I'm almost certain it would have lost.


I've been looking at another "illogical" lay system:

1) Identify the top neural selection based on the default/factory settings.
2) Minimum of 10 runners.
3) Lay the top selection providing it has less than 200 neural points.

I have always found the neurals can be quite puzzling, so I decided to see what would happen if the top selection was layed. I've restricted the top selection not to exceed 199.5 points. There was one selection today at exactly 199.5 points - it was beaten.

I haven't been keeping accurate records because if the selection is/was under $7 I would lay it for one unit of $5, because the liability would be lower than S.P. And, conversely if it's price was over $7, I would lay it with S.P. so that its liability was only $30.

Sunday there were 28 selections for 27 smiles, 19 of them were single-figures with Unitab divvies. It was a massive day.

Monday was break-even, mainly due to the low prices, which I layed non-S.P.

Tuesday there were 9 smiles from 10 selections for a profit of about $20.

Today I only layed S.P. because my back seems to be clearing up (please Forum Curse, please leave it alone) so I decided to lie down (fortunately there was not too much pain) and watch the cricket. There were 24 smiles from 26 selections for a profit of $54.15.

It's an illogical system, but then people may easily have the impression that the neurals are illogical, and therefore the system might just turn out to be logical.

That looks like it might be a good system michaelg.

I had a quick look at todays picks and the 2 accidents were quite low in price which is great.

I wonder if wesmip1 might have some stats for this.

The Ocho, today will test the method. There are 12 selections, 7 of them are the pre-post fave.

Ballarat
4/9
7/10

Scone
5/7
6/4
7/8

Launceston
2/6
6/6
7/2
9/2

Albany
3/11
7/7
8/1

I'll be laying them S.P., but I think laying them for the same amount may be the way to go because of their expected low prices.

Only 1 accident today as far as can tell and that paid all of $1.40 on Unitab :)

Well done.

Yes, only one accident - it paid $1.50 on Betfair S.P. The profit for the day was $17.12.

If the selections were laid at S.P. prices for a flat stake of $30 then the profit would have been about $210. However the liability would have been much higher.

Over the two days of listing the selections here and laying then on S.P, there have been 32 smiles from 35 selections for a profit of $71.27.

Its amazing that the neural top selection (max of 199.5 neural points and minimum 10 runners) currently has such a poor strike rate even though there has only been a paltry 35 selections. My testing period also showed a poor strike rate, so there might be merit. I'm somewhat pessimistic, but time will tell.

Today's selections are:

Ballina
3/1
4/1
5/2
6/1
7/4

Goulburn
3/2
4/4
6/6

Ipswich
2/4
5/13

Mornington
4/9
8/5

Sun Coast
4/4
7/2

Canterbury
2/5
5/1
6/10
7/3

Moonee Valley
7/11

Again, there's quite a few pre-post faves today. It does make one wonder why there has been such a poor strike rate. Hopefully it will continue.

I made an error - I'm still on pain killers so I'll again put it down to them.

I incorrectly stated Ballina 3/1 was the selection - it was not, the real selection was no.8 (can be checked on the neural website), which was unplaced. Because I listed no.1 as the selection I'll have to record it as an accident. In spite of that, the method is currently $18.93 in profit.

If I had not made the mistake, the method would be a further $30 (the non-accident) and $5.59 in front giving an overall profit of $54.52.

From yesterday's 19 selections there were 4 accidents for a loss of $21.27.

After three days the profit is exactly $50.

However, if I hadn't listed the wrong selection in Ballina R3, yesterday's result would have been a profit of $14.83. And after the three days the profit would have been $85.51, which is the true result of the system.

The method has shown a genuine profit for the three days. Hopefully it'll continue even though the selection process is illogical for laying.

Randwick
8/3

Sandown
2/1

Dombeen
1/5
2/1
3/4
6/1

Morphetville
2/1
6/5

Seymour
4/6
6/4
8/14

Kembla
6/1

Coonamble
3/3
4/9
7/2

Armidale
2/6
6/5

Gold Coast
4/1
6/12
8/4

Toowoomba
5/1

Ascot
6/1
7/5

Hi michaelg

Gee, I wish you had have listed these 30 minutes earlier. It would have saved me looking them up myself...lol :mad: :)

I'm laying these with my bot but, as I try and do something else with the bot. I'm only going to lay these for $3 liability (so 1/10th of your $30 liability).

Have you tried doing these on a Saturday before?

Good luck today by the way.

Pity I can't lay them for a liability of $3. But at the moment that might be good because my profit would have been only 1/10 of what it currently is.

I wait for the scratchings at W.A. to be loaded before listing all the selections here. However if the system continues to be successful I'll show the selections before the W.A. scratchings are recorded.

No, I've not layed the method on Saturday, but my experience shows that the top neural selections generally perform worse on Saturdays, so I'm hopeful. After saying that, today might just kill the method.

Good luck.

What a c&*t of a day so far.

The system I'm trying just blew up in my face and this laying the neural system has already had at least 4 accidents. I got so ********ed off I've just shut down my bot and haven't even put it in simulation mode (which is very much unlike me). FFS!!!

I don't have much money left but it's back to the drawing board.

Yes, it was a terrible start. However it has picked up and it is currently a few dollars in front with six more races to go.

Not a bad day today. There were 19 smiles from the 23 selections for a profit of $37.06.