Why are CrownBet so good now?
 

Don't have a bad word to say about them when it comes to getting a bet on AUS racing. I've read online they want a good reputation so are letting everyone on.. What do others think?

Just looking at your post now PAT.

I am backing N/COORTE R8-3 E/WAY in 7 minutes.

BET365 119.6
VIC TAB 118.5.
UNIBET 122.4.
LUXBET 119.1.
WILLIAM HILL 116.4

"CROWNBET " 124.6

This is the fixed odds market with some of the corporates,
In the upcoming N/COORTE race.

Bet unders maybe the reason.

At least you can get on at the moment,
That's a positive.

Cheers.

I've been betting fixed odds with them for over a year. Their racing odds are great and they create overs on favourites on purpose, which from what I have seen, almost never end up winning. They must have a great team of traders and analysts.

It got up, well done :)

When you say Overs Pat, overs to what? Betfair Lay, Back, tote, your own rated price.....it just goes on. Overs is a word used often but unless you refer it to something, it leaves you guessing? You being an Arber, I can only assume Overs to Lay price? Big Call.

Sorry, I should clarify I meant they create overs on favs compared to betfair lay. And I cannot remember an instance here where the fav has won.

Cheers, useful info.

Hi Pat.

Um I think with the previous post ,
Was meant to highlight that there are,
Several corporates five in fact who fixed odds wise are much,
More competitive than them as illustrated below.

If you can get an account open with them,
For fixed odds betting (BET365) is without doubt,
The best overall & they do put prices up early.

No idea about their tote product(s).

I opened an account way back put money in which,
Was not accepted, money promptly refunded,
With a nice explanation why.

Now before everyone starts posting there experiences,
Making Pro-Pun libel & this thread closed I read the conditions,
Same everywhere really & accepted the decision.

Just not within 24 hours (L.O.L).

You do not legally have a leg to stand on if you read
The terms re closure of accounts.

So Bet 365 if you can get on for value fixed odds,
If not, be grateful you have Crownbet & good luck,
On the punt, backing- laying- arbing-trading-in-run etc.

Think that covers them all.

Cheers.
Garyf.

I'm a cleanskin with bookies....just never use them, no need. However I've always contemplated that for whatever reason if I wanted to bet with a bookie, Crown would be the last! Only because they're owned by the same mob and my Betfair profile would be available to Crown, you would assume?

The minute you try and arb between the two, I'd reckon a big siren would go off LOL

You obviously disagree with that thought bubble which is heartening?

Yep thanks.

Now see what happens when you get banned.

B/O3 or S/P $3.5.
Top fluctuation $4.00.

Ok lets say you miss it as they take that.

There was plenty of $3.8 being bet when it went into $3.7.

My rule of thumb has always been bet the very first,
Time you horse firms in the betting (fixed odds).

So I would have been on at the $3.8 or at,
The worst $3.7 as they were waiting to be loaded ,
It firmed again to $3.5 which was the S/P.

So now see what great value I got with Betfair S/P,
Less commission of course.

Don't get me wrong I'm not blaming Betfair at,
Least I can get on but this example of what I take now,
As to what I used to have available is a perfect scenario,
Of what happens on a daily basis.

Let's hope it doesn't happen to you Pat although,
It took me a while to convince the Betfair devotees,
There were better options out there with the B/O3 OR S/P (L.O.L)

Cheers.
Garyf.

I think crownbet are taking a different approach to bookmaking/business model and have confidence in their traders and analysts and want to get a good rep.

I don't think any business starts out with the idea of getting a bad reputation.
However even charities have to pay wages, so they take some of the earnings from the top, (sometimes there is very little left).

Bookies on the other hand are no charities, it's all about profit and I assure you when it comes down to profit vers. "good" rep, I know which side wins.

Besides what's a good rep for a bookie? Paying out on time and taking on reasonable wagers, that's all. The business model is the same for all, try to retain the losers and get rid of or restrict the consistent winners.
Enjoy while it lasts.

I revisited this idea in the last hour. What it comes down too is the bookies have a nice 20% overround, that pays the wages and overheads. But like you say Pat, they employ traders of their own and use their skills in handicapping to pump out a bit more profit. They do that, as you say, by offering a price better than the lay price to attract some business (not arbers :( ), knowing that probability is on their side as they've done their own form, looked at the oppositions prices and thought they could do a bit better for little or no extra risk.

So casting my eye over all the bookies prices looking for at least 3 offering a price >= to the current Lay $. I've picked up a couple of hundred in the last hour just Laying that selection (not arbing), on the dogs and gallops. Probably just lucky but there is logic behind it. Now this is deja vu for me as I've been here before, wanted to implement an automated system but was let down by an odds comparison mob with the initials of the first two letters in DOOMBEN. (last time I mentioned them, I got sidelined by the mods)

Gary, do you still use them? and is yours integrated into excel? They weren't interested in helping anyone set it up last time I tried.

Yeah I said the other day you could use them as a guide to laying horsess/favs :P

The automation idea mimics a free tool Betfair used to have, called the percentage advantage indicator. It used to show the current back price's % advantage to the Tote and you could nominate which one. It was terrific, but what did they do....got rid of it...too much help to the punter!

In the automation I have in mind, it'd scan the bookies prices and if there were 2 or 3 >= current lay$ at a set time fire a lay bet. Dunno if it'd work, but it'd be nice to trial it and record the outcomes?

Not sure exactly what you mean but I will have a shot R/P.

Do you mean say pick out a Corporate bookmaker(s)
Check their prices to say other corporates & then the on course market,
And if in certain races they appear to be continually the last,
To turn off a firming favourite or continually being the first,
To extend their odds of a horse appearing they want to take it on,
Then you want to tap into that & lay it for yourself based on what they do.

This could be any no's of reasons.

Their form analysts have it at a certain price which is,
Much shorter on course or with other corporates.

The stable who usually back it with them when it runs,
Have not so today.

Smart money from good judges are backing other horses,
To beat it.

It is much bigger on the tote(s) they can do a rough calculation,
With say Betfair & the 3 tab's final pools & can back it back to,
Hedge a large bet (note I said rough guess) if they get hit.

Track bias changing track ratings on the day now favours other horses,
So they reassess or just to entice punters as not much action is happening

Open market %'s were way to high to start with so they appear to,
Be wanting to lay something when all that is happening are the %'s,
Are now evening out.

This is the reason because of these anomalies I only record,
The on course prices not any corporate(s) odds because of the above.

Also if you decide on the corporate which analyst & what,
Meetings is he or she doing on any particular day.

It's not one doing all there are several that may contribute.

I have to be careful here in relation to the above paragraph
But let's just say that a certain,
Person on the forum was giving their odds & ratings to a certain,
Party on stipulated races & days thus was able to bet freely.

Now this was no longer happening therefore that persons prices,
And opinion is no longer being used, you get the drift.

To answer the other question yes I use them still,
But not the setup you wanted to do, just for the comparisons,
And scratchings track ratings dividends etc.

There are other sites to do comparisons but there,
Are not as many options as the one you mean.

To get back data from you know who, my interpretation from them,
Was this, we have the data & the setup however you need to transform,
It yourself, or get someone who can, they wouldn't even recommend anyone,
When asked for fear of legal ramifications.


Cheers.
Garyf.

Pretty good wrap-up Gary :)

I was being less specific though with my logic which goes something like this:

Out of the 11 bookies and fixed price totes, if in the last 30 secs you see that a min of 3 are offering prices >= current Lay$, then that's a big head start! The lay price need to have commish added, say 6.5% but given the bookies have an overround of roughly 20+%, for them to offer Backers a sacrificial lamb price better than Lay$ and Betfair Back$ (even for that short 30 sec period) by a fair bit, might mean that they're sacrificing the profit on this selection and really hoping to make it on the rest. Their idea is to take the punters eye off the rest, and offer them a price to back this selection at huge overs....knowing full well that it's a decoy?

OK, maybe I'm just suspicious by nature? LOL....but it'd be nice to try and record a big wad of races and see if there's any a pattern there. It may well be they just use a computer following an algorithm based on whatever to set prices and there's no real guru overlooking anything and adjusting? if you collect these fixed odds prices for say July this year (I'm talking a few bookies), I can send you the Lay price for that period and you can see if there were a number that bettered the lay price and whether or not they went on to win?

Here's an example of what I'm talking about. Pinjarra 04 harness race today: The donkey with the Overs came no where. The lay price is the extreme RH column. For five bookies to offer Overs and they've got a 120% book compared to Betfairs 100%.

Thanks for the offer R/P all my laying,
Will be based on bad selections that are,
Short in the market but rarely win that are,
In our database in certain price groups.

I see now exactly what you mean with the below post,
Will keep out as an opinion as without a selection to start,
With & exploit it's difficult to say long term if this is an angle,
Worth pursuing.

Certainly can't hurt to do a forward test now the process is in place,
Then go from there when you reckon sufficient data has been acquired.

If it works beauty, more money, if not no harm done we move on.

I can assure there are traders on the floor monitoring,
Everything not just a computer.

Cheers.
Garyf.

RP, I checked the race. I believe the selection highlighted was Mill Pond. At 10 secs to the jump it was showing 9.0 / 28.0 for the back/lay prices. So I assume your screenshot is showing the back price only. Your problem is there was not much money in the market when you were looking and if you automated that you would have lots of issues with delayed races, etc.

No worries Gary.
It's been an interesting insight today and when the critics of Pat's arbing say there's no such thing possible.....well I've gotta say there are plenty of opportunities, but why bother with arbs and small returns, when you can use the signal to back or lay outright.

I mention Back, coz when you look at a lot of the winners on these odds comparison sites, WOW, the bookies head for the trenches as a group, compared to the Betfair back price LOL offering no value at all. Again, the beginnings possibly for a mechanical system?

All hail to you Pat for your observation and doggedness to stick with your beliefs. :)

Yes you could be right UB, it was an excercise in 'potentials' to get people thinking. D.O.oomben is very unreliable when it comes to Betfair and why I left them behind long ago BUT the few test bets I Layed today, I was using Betfairs site as the reference. :)

Thanks mate. Although there's lots of these throughout the week on Aus racing, returns between big and small, it's nothing compared to international (which on average don't have small returns). Enough about that though lol.

Goin well on the adaption of your original post Pat. Pulled in $700+ in the last 3 days having a play. I must admit Crown rarely featured though, usually 365, TAB or Bbookies prepared to offer > lay price.

There were a few 1st faves that fell over today, confirmed by the signal and I wish I was brave enough to take them on! The go is to watch the flucs from about 5 mins out. If they're a goer, they'll be offering > than Lay, about then. By the time of the jump it's back under, 99% of the time. It's a matter of training your eye, which I was quite adept at a couple of years ago with on course flucs....until they went synthetic, and I had to move on :(

Don't try the Dogs though! Harness.....enough said, there's too much.......goin on there, and the bookies know it?

Yea I agree with what you've said. I've only looked for a few months but have noticed these favourites which have overs rarely win.

Great lay service!