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Backing Opening Favorites
Here is a simple system for backing the opening favourite (using Betchoice opening prices).
Only consider the Opening Favourite (no equal Favourites). Aim to collect a certain amount, say $20 Use the opening price to determine your bet, say opens at $3.00 Bet will be 20/3 = $7 (always round up) If bet loses new Aim will be 20 + 7 = $27 Follow the same process for next race if no winner proceed for a third race which ends the series irrespective if a winner is found or not. Start again next week aiming for $20 If bet wins end series and start again next week aiming for $20. A winning bet always ends the series irrespective if you do not cover your outlay. If the next race has equal favourites, ignore race and proceed to the following race to continue process. Example 1/1/2011 Randwick Wakanda opening price $2.60 ..aim $20 ..bet $8...loss Glissade opening price $2.40 ..aim $28 ..bet $12..win $2.50..collect $30.00 Outlay $20 Collect $30 profit $10 Results of Saturday meetings in Melbourne and Sydney since 1/1/2011 are:- Melbourne (aiming for $20) 149 bets 55 wins 36.9 % S/R Bank $216.55 13.5% POT Sydney (aiming for $20) 137 bets 53 wins 38.6 % S/R Bank $144.05 9.1% POT I have not looked at other Metropolitan races nor have I looked at Country or Provincial races. |
It worked well today at Flemington and Randwick-Kensington.
Flem R1 Unpretentious Open $1.70.. Aim 20..bet $12 Loss R2 Maluti............Open $4.00.. Aim 32..bet $8 Loss R3 Somaly Miss....Open $3.60.. Aim 40..bet $12 Won $4.60 Outlay $32 Collect $55.20 Profit $23.20 Rand-Kens R1 Toydini...Open $2.50...Aim 20..bet $8 Won $3.30 Outlay$8 Collect $26.40 Profit $18.40 |
Nice one Try Try Again,
Interesting idea! Keep us posted as to how you progress during the year. Are your prices based on top totes? The Schmile |
I had a look at this but used the betfair fav, did well in most venues so far.
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Thanks The Schmile and Shaun,
Dividend is best of tote or SP. As I said I haven't looked at it other than on a Saturday meeting in Melbourne or Sydney but it should be okay at other meetings throughout the week. |
Your not able to get past results for openers?
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Looking at the meetings today the results have been:-
Flem.....Outlay $32..Collect $55.20...Profit $23.20 Kens.....Outlay $8...Collect $26.40...Profit $18.40 Toow....Outlay $18..Collect $40.00...Profit $22.00 Geel......Outlay $8...Collect $18.40...Profit $10.40 Bath.....Outlay $7...Collect $18.90...Profit $11.90 Gawl.....Outlay $25..Collect $37.50...Profit $12.50 Gosf.....Outlay $29..Collect $34.20...Profit $5.20 Pinj......Outlay $29..Collect $0.00....Loss $29.00 Days result Outlay $156 Collect $230.60 Profit $74.60 POT 47.8% Dividends for country meetings are best of NSW and SuperTab. |
Hi Shaun,
If you go to the Betchoice website and click on Results and then Past Results you can get whichever openers for whatever meeting you want. |
I had a look as well using the AAP pre-post prices and IAS Super Price, here is what I found (figures are rounded):
Flemington Outlay - $6 Collect - $38 Bets - 1 Randwick Outlay - $7 Collect - $23 Bets - 1 Toowoomba Outlay - $21 Collect - $48 Bets - 2 Geelong Outlay - $9 Collect - $20 Bets - 1 Bathurst Outlay - $26 Collect - $40 Bets - 3 Gawler Outlay - $25 Collect - $33 Bets - 2 Gosford Outlay - $23 Collect - $19 Bets 3 Pinjarra Outlay - $27 Collect - $78 Bets - 3 Total Outlay - $138 Total Collect - $299 Total Profit - $161 S/R - 50% POT - 116% Again it is interesting to see results from different pre-post favourites. Providing the liability is limited to a 3 bet sequence this could have some potential, well done Try Try Again. |
Hi Mattio,
I think Flemington races would certainly have been 3 bets as Unpretentious (race 1) and Maluti (race 2) were beaten before Somaly Miss won race 3. This is using the prices on the ************** site which was given another thread as being the AAP prices. But your results look great, especially as I didn't get a result at Pinjarra and the AAP pre-post had Background as the $3 favourite - and it paid $6.40 as best of NSW & SuperTab - a great result. |
Sorry mate, you are right about Flemington, I just double checked and I was looking at the wrong set of prices. I'll have to do a double check on them all now to make sure I have the rest right.
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Just checked yesterday's results.
Casino 1bet +$21 Geelong 3bets -$35 Wagga 1 bet +20.80 Profit $6.80 POT 12.8% |
Monday's results were :-
Grafton 1 bet +$17 Kyneton 3 bets -$50 Loss $33 LOT 48.5% |
Results since Saturday have been
Sat Outlay $132 Profit $93.70 Sun Outlay $125 Profit $13.70 Mon Outlay $68 Loss $33.00 Tue Outlay $53 Profit $6.80 Wed Outlay $156 Profit $74.60 Therefore since Saturday we have had 1 losing day (Monday) and have made a Profit of $155.80 at POT 29.1% I would have to say it looks promising even if you bet each day although the "better quality" meetings of Saturday and Wednesday have given the better results on this limited research. More results are required! |
Ive been playing around with this idea but using pre post favs for a couple weeks now, best advice i can offer here is think about race type.
Maiden races can have a high strike rate with favs but are they pre post favs or openers or the ones who start race fav? Could it be that the better saturday and wednesday results are due to the early races not being all maiden races on those days? |
I really like this idea Try Try Again as it factors in the price of the fav and using the target of $20 is easy to execute.
Plus, most days it would be 2 hours work max. Food for thought indeed!! My mind is racing now..... Thanks again!! The Schmile |
I've been thinking about the possible runs of outs, an going on the strike rate of fav's in the first 3 races of around 35%.
One can assume hitting a run of outs of 16-17 during the course of our investments (based on the list Bhagwan provided some time ago) Mattio, do you have the average loss per run of 3 losses over the course of your research to calculate a starting bank? The Schmile |
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Run of outs formula depending on your confidence Log(.005)/Log(1-S/R%) S/R=strike rate% |
Not quite in line with original idea, but I have just ran a test for all days this month so far every venue, first 3 races targeting final SP fav.
Races Bet: 382 Races Won: 159 S.R./Race: 41.6% % P.O.T. : 4.7% Best day by far were Sunday and Monday Sunday 96 bets for 43 winners strike 45% 5 OUTS 12% POT Monday 39 bets 18 winners strike 46% 3 OUTS 33% POT Sat showed 96 bets for 41% strike and 12 OUTS 4% POT Also food for thought. Enjay |
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Cheers Wolf, Unfortunately in my teens I was a the class clown and was most probably flirting with my girlfriend during this maths period, while perusing the form guide with my good eye. :D Might need a wee bit of help here with the formula :o The Schmile |
Well done Enjay.
Thanks for sharing those findings. The POT may have been stronger using the Pre-post or Bookies opening prices because of the possible lower price being used as the divisor & possible snagging an overlay price on say Betfair. Bookies opening price ,is generally, fairly low, thus the potential for greater overlay prices being secured , thus greater POT. Using those Decimal odds instead of Fractional odds as the divisor into a Take-out figure is a strong way of keeping those outlays to a more manageable level . Especially when confronted with an Odds-on price. Example. Decimal odds as divisor--- 1.70 into 20.00 = O/L 12.00 Instead of .. Fractional odds as divisor --- .7/1 into 20.00 = O/L 29.00 If this where to fall over , it would take a lot more resources to recover using Fractional odds as divisor. This approach will usually work if using a different source for our divisor prices over a short run of outs . If one wants more control again , just use bet sequence 2 2 3 as in say 10 10 15 That way you know your max liability up front. But get the general idea for SR. Thanks once again Enjay. |
Hi Schmile.
The answer is approx 6 outs in a row using a 3 bet sequence. |
Hi Bhagwan,
Cheers for your response. Though I was more wondering the total average loss over three bets, using the divisor to work out a bank as total loss with 3 losers in a row would likely end up around 4.5-5 units. I'll roll with 35% SR and 5% POT, Av Div is 105/35 = $3 and work it out from there. Cheers mate and have a great Thursday. The Schmile |
Looking at the average outlay betting to take out $20
Average appears to work out at approx 21.00 per venue . Seeing that the theoretical run of outs comes to approx 6 sets of 3 bets. Have a min bank of 12 x 21.00 = $250 Only double take out fig. once bank doubles & you should be right. |
Nice work Bhagwan.
Much appreciated. The Schmile |
Thursday (today) was a disaster with 2 wipe outs from the 3 meetings
Mornington....Outlay $48...Collect $0........Loss $48 Rockhampton.Outlay $22...Collect $22.10..Profit $0.10 Wyong..........Outlay $31...Collect $0.......Loss $31 Loss for today $78.90 I also looked at the previous 2 Saturday's results 14/4 Profit $35.70 7/4 Loss $151.60 I think what may have looked promising could get "very ugly, very quickly" if we are unable to hit our winner in the first 3 qualifying races at each meeting. On the 7th April there were 5 "wipeouts" out of 12 meetings hence the large loss. I think it's back to the drawing board! |
Not necessarily back to the drawing board mate, on most days the first 3 races at meeting will generally contain a lot of maidens and unraced horses which make for very bad betting races. I have a friend who is vice president of a race club and they always program the weaker races first as they attract less interest so you want to get them out of the way.
Even on Saturday's the first 3 races are generally 2 yo, lower benchmark races, etc so maybe go back over the past few weeks and do it for the last 3 races at each meeting. Also you could simply choose the 3 highest class races at each meeting and see how they go. |
I did a test using something similar for my choice of fav and this whole set produced a 1% pot
This is a weeks worth of races. Code:
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Long-term this method will only work if there is a POT at level stakes.
One could argue that backing a maiden fav on a heavy 10 track is bordering on lunacy. So leaving Mornington out the damage was minimal today. Running at a 35% SR we can expect around a 72.5% strike rate of wins per sequence with this method. Food for thought. :) The Schmile |
This was my above results using Unitab prices.
Selections 35 Wins 25 SR 71.43% Profit 19.41 POT 1.13% |
I think if you go and start picking and choosing races you will erode the natural strike rate of the fav runner.
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It was a pretty funny day for Favs in general today. (Thur 26th Apr)
There were large runs of outs for favs 3.00+ Funny ahh. This is what can happen where the Favs have been running hot for a while & the stats tend to balance themselves out with days like this. Don't be too surprised if it repeats itself tomorrow. Its not a bad idea to sit it out, until it evens out a bit, if chasing the Favs. If one is using a Bot , set it into Sim mode & let it run to do its thing. It comes back to the fact that Horse racing is not an exact science . It just gives us the impression that it can be ,with the patterns that it presents and the static yearly percentages, that rarely change. The 3rd Favs have had a very torrid run lately , now watch to see a number start getting up with horrible form , to get to its historic average of 15% The same with 2nd favs. The stats will not be denied |
That's why i only will bet Favorites in my ratings at certain tracks.
I posted an article several weeks ago about this, Some tracks are almost double the L.O.T. compared to normal, Others are half the loss some almost break even. At the really bad tracks eg Mornington in certain circumstances, I will just dutch bet the next 2-3-4 in the market. Especially when the favorite is =>$3.0 on a rain affected track. Have no real explanation as to why some tracks are better for Fav's, Than others ,Townsville has a small pool of horses that race there. Albury usually attract large fields who knows?. All that matter is it continues to happen this is possibly one way, Of determining why there are good and wipeout days for Fav's. Doesn't mean it's the be all end all just one possible theory, To consider that's all. Cheers. |
Hi Garyf,
I remember you posting the tracks, however I can't seem to find your post. If you have a moment, could you possibly post them again? I'd very much appreciate it and will save them this time. The Schmile |
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I generally bet Provincial Tracks and Most Metro (no NSW or SA or Belmont) Country Tracks provide the worst results, followed surprisingly by Metro Tracks (although skewed towards a few tracks) and then Provincial track perform best and on the main racing days as alluded to previously. |
It makes sense to me .
Punters handicap Horses. Why not Handicap Racetracks. The percentages are there to do it. |
Hi T.S.
ROCK HARD (DALE) Post=22+26. Only some tracks are listed as a guide to the point i was making. I agree Stix it certainly is one way of improving ones p.o.t. And strike rates when applying a selection technique Whatever that person may use (Ratings Form Mechanical etc). "Handicapping a track" good use of words Bhags. Cheers. |
Cheers Garyf,
Have a great day tomorrow! The Schmile |
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Thursday was a particularly good day for me laying favourites, in fact one of the best. Today, it evened out again. I am expecting a pretty poor strike rate from favourites on Saturday, but I could be wrong. Thursday was 33.30% Today was 35.50% |
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Can you please explain the math here to get 72.5%SR over the 3 bet series? Thanks in advance. |
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