Would you tell?
 

Go - on, the truth????? if you stumbled on that magic system (hey some may well have already done it) would you tell "ANYONE"? or just quietly milk it till you don't need to anymore?

G'day Party., good to see you are back in one piece - hope your hols. were
enjoyable.

No, as unfortunate as that is it's a fact of life - however having had 60 years
of racing from one side or another and knowing how many extrinsics are involved I would be nothing short of astounded to find such an animal
exists, at least long enough to ( "milk it till you don't need to anymore").

"Milk it until you don't need it anymore" ?

How long is a piece of string?

Why have you got one??? Wouldn't devolge the system but may pass on some tips.

I feel if one shared a system that worked over time , a punter would instinctivly change the rules to to try & improve on it.

The other thing is discipline, not many Punters posses this trait.

This will be seen when the system has a run of outs, which is normal for most plans of attack, this usually rattles most punters , so they usually stop using it.

Put the 2 together & I dont feel the system would ever be over bet, because over time it wont look anything like the original.

Here is an example.
.Target the 3 pre-post Favs in any newspaper or racingandsports & highlight the one that has the best chance of loosing the race.
These 3 generally win 45-55% of all races

. 1300m & more.

.12 runners & less.

.Now that you have worked out who the worst horse is, bet it to win.

I doubt if this idea will ever be over bet.

But to prove to oneself if it can work, start Lay betting each selection & see just how much money one will loose.

The reasoning is , if it is winning logic that is used to select a winner & they dont show a profit, the reasoning is, if one reverses the thought process , one should be in profit.

Cheers.

Bagman,

I like the drift, but how do you work out the horse 'that has the best chance of loosing the race' [?].

The 3rd PP fav. ?

I think the horse with the worst Distance @ Track record would be the worst, and if that can't be worked out, then the worst at distance.

an interesting "twist" to this thread, but to answer a specific question........ I have many ideas running at the same time, my no 1 is totally place betting, which I have been doing for 4 years (apart from several 3 months stints abroad) this is currently showing just over 4% POT, but there is no way that I would claim the "holy grail" I am VERY much aware that it could tilt the other way at any moment.

I have also 2 other "plans" showing just over (a tiny amount) break even, even so, I have had 4 round the world trips out of em' FREE inc. hotels & cars.

And the answer is,... NO I can't say how, but I know there are several contributors to this forum who are aware that I am telling you the truth!

Chrome is one of them.

I can't broadcast it, as the loophole may disappear on me.

By the way all my investments are placed at best tote OR top fluc.

So I guess the answer for me is YES I would divulge a certain amount, but I would keep the real secret,...... secret!

Racer, thanks for the welcome back, I had a good rest but gotta admit it's great to be back in OZ, had a blooody horror experience in Spain when I couldn't get any money from the ATMs, but went to a couple race meets in the Philippines which made up for ALL the problems, especially one which was for racing "BUFFALO" I kid you NOT! fantastic stuff!

Buffalo Phil. then.

I meant to ask you Party re. your final post b'4 you took off to fields afar, you referred to something like your trips were paid for from returns
" Either directly from betting, or indirectly".

It's the "indirectly" that got me wondering if that might be the 'real' earner because place betting won't buy you a suitcase, unless of course the bets are a couple of grand a time and 98% win.

Racer, your inclinations are "close" I would love to spill the beans (just to look like a smart aaaa) but my brain tells me different!

But just to get the grey stuff working consider this, I have a mortgage with a certain company @9%, who write and offer me pre approved a credit card with $20,000 limit, no charge for the first year and 2.99% interest on balance transfers for 9 months.

So I transfer $20,000 and pay it back into my mortgage, the result: the $20,000 costs me $450 interest, and I *save* $1350 interest on my Mortgage. and it's ALL on their money! Now if the offer continues I will repeat as many times as I can, if not I will just cancel the card after 9 months.

What the helll has that got to do with "investing" on horses? you say? well what I'm getting at is; consider the above as a "formula" that's the sort of mental agility you need to suceed.

One final cryptic clue I haven't used one single cent of my money to bet on horses with in 4 years!!!!

The idea of telling everyone your secret would not be good, but a select few is not such a bad idea.

Now i know the idea of risk free betting has been posted on here before and a lot of people claim it is not possible and a few prove it is, i won't go in to details.

But the concept was explained to me in detail by a former forum user and like most ideas it became harder and harder to use, but from this came my current ideas and it all has to do with maths.


This started 4 years ago and i have been refining my ideas every since, as one possibility comes along another one dissolves, but in all this time i have kept that one person up to date with whats going on because with sharing ideas one of us may come up with the answer.

Remember this. no single person that every invented anything was not improved upon by another.

Hi all

I reckon that telling a few that you know are professional enough to take it for what it is is not so bad in the scheme of things it may actually evolve your own idea to greater heights perhaps. As they say more heads are better than one.

Perhaps, is the fact that one does not want to look like an idiot which is generally a feeling one gets if they tell all that this is great it works then falls in a hole.

I have come to the conclusion that its not about picking winners on a certain day but having an edge, many cant see this so if you say pick 3 selections and they all lose you would be seen as a loser whereby you know that in the longer term this is just a process.

Cheers
U

Shaun and Ubetido, I agree totally. just one thought though, I would consider 3 losers on one day as ONE loser, and say 2 losers + a 3-1 winner as ONE 3-1 ON winner!!

Write a winning formula outside of Ranwich [or anywhere] on the footpath and believe me no one will take any notice.

hahahahaha! yeah you're probably right there Crash, hahah!

Just out of interest, I ran the suggested idea of backing the horse with the worst
Crs + Dist form, using the Neural setting at 5 all the rest 0, starting from the bottom & working up.
The first selection we came to that was also in the RadioTAB 3 selections became the bet. (regardless if a draw on pts.)

Result Fri 11th July.
10 from 35 = 29% SR
Ret 47.40
O/L 35.00
Prof 12.40 = 35% POT

Av Div $4.74

UniTAB prices
$5.70 5.80 7.30 4.30 4.40 3.40 3.00 4.40 5.90 3.30

Much better prices could have been had using Betfair.

The idea now shared, will not effect the price one little bit, because it flys in the face of logic, the average punter's brain will naturally say that there is no way something like this can possible work long term because a horse with better Crs & Dist form, will beat a horse with lower known form, under this criteria.
With this firmly in mind, the punter will now do the logical step & back the one with the better Crs & Dist form which will usually result in lower prices being had, just to start with.

The longterm SR may be similar but it is the lower Average Price of the better rated Crs + Dist horse, which will be the killer.

Like I said in the previouse post, start laying these selections with poor
Crs + Dist ratings & see how much money one will loose.
So may as well back them to win, especially if showing juicy prices.

Cheers.

Looking at the winning prices Bagman the runners must have had something going for them. Their mostly 1st, 2nd. or 3rd favorites aren't they?

Yes mechanically, like that the sign on the Pokie that says "THIS MACHINE GUARANTEES TO PAY OUT 85c IN THE $" what it is REALLY saying is that "this machine guarantees to take 15c from every $ that goes into it , rain or shine"
Same with the "other" machine the name of the game is to slowly cream off 15c in the $ like clockwork........ one person or more winning on one or even 100 particular races is irrellavant really isn't it?

Results for this idea, 9 meetings targeted .

Sat 13th July
20 from 70 = SR 29%
Ret 104
O/L 70
Prof + 34

Av price $5.20

Divs
$16.40 6.20 3.80 6.30 5.20 5.90 3.10 8.50 6.30 3.60 2.70 1.60 4.30 5.10 6.10 3.20 2.40 4.00 2.60 3.70

Interesting results so far
30 from 104 races = 29% SR
+$46.40 prof = 44% POT

Av price $5.03

Now according to the experts, this cant be done longterrm because the percentage is too high to warrant this Average price.
Maybe they are logically correct based on known form, but keep in mind we are looking at the reverse of known form, every form person will tell you a good form person will out do a systems person.

For this idea to fall over it would require the better form horses, which will have the shorter prices also, to suddenly over perform to their historical known ability in relation to its price. Which on past history, does not happen longterm.

I still feel no one will use it, even though it shows a promising result & its free.
So there is no fear of the price dropping, because its reverse logic.
One thing to keep in mind, is when a price drops, it also pushes the other horses price out & these selections will win only a percentage of all races, not all of them, a Bookie would not want to be caught out too much on known form horses at too higher price so as to balance his book.

To come back to the original question, would you sell a system fearing the horses price will drop?
The answer is .... Hell Yeah!

Hi Bhagwan the hardest thing is to get into the Neurals, tried to have a look yesterday to see how they went, gave up after one race.

PS what would be the betting strategie??

Obviously it would be much easier just to look at the UNiTAB race page, which has all the information.

Back the worst TD form of the tips.

http://www.tabonline.com.au/2008/07/13/VR08.html

Presumably this would give similar picks + results as the Neurals.

Bhagwan - has anyone ever told you you're a genius !

I thought I'd have a look at this out of curiosity and todays results so far,
unpl/unpl/Won 5.00(2.00pl)/3rd(ntd)/unpl/2nd(2.70pl)Won23.90(5.20pl).
Unfortunately I'm only doing it on paper today (as usual).

PS - best keep it a secret and tell nobody.

cheers ....Mancunian.

Bhagwan, good stuff as usual, but just one thing the "original" question was would you TELL (not SELL) ...............

Party,

Anything that was properly tested over time that was a winning system would not be put up here for free. Lots of short test systems that are showing a profit will be for sure.

You original question ['a winning system' for free, implies tried and true], has not really been answered.

Yeah I know Crash but I just thought the forum looked a bit light on topics hee hee!

Hi Party, I must have misread the question.
To answer the original question... would you tell anyone if you had a proven plan over a period of time?.... HELL YEAH !

Hi Crackbone,
With the Neural site , if you have enough RAM in your PC , one can make it operate quickly, I use 320GB of RAM & it works a treat, even in the middle of the day when its bizzy.
Its a very intricate site & sometimes needs raw power to drive it when its bizzy.

Hi Mancunian,
I would recommend betting the selections at 0.5% of bank , win only betting, at level stakes.
I feel this 0.5 percentage is very important.

This is done so as to handle most runs of outs which is normal for any plan of attack.

Maybe consider betting to a max of 4 venues a day.

Try & be prepared for the inevitable run of outs, they should recover themselves over a series of future bets.


Cheers.

So back to the original question.

Anyone want to put up a tried and true winning system here in the forum [if they have one]?

I think they would be few and far between as only 3% of punters win!!

But you can run this one for me ( I have the last four months)
Unitab 100 pts
Placed or won 2 or 3 times in last three starts (as shown on unitab site eg 1x3, 021, 23x)
Weight 58.5 to 59.5 (allotted weight)

PS metro only

Cheers

Vic, SA, WA, NSW & QLD Metro only

Runners 10 (after Scratchings)
Barrier 10
Saddle Cloth <11
3 yo
<$4.10 (Unitab)

Since 1/1/00
Selections 120
Wins 48 (S/R 40.00%) Places 82 (68.33%)
POT 19.1% LOT 0.4%

Since 1/1/05
Selections 58
Wins 27 (S/R 46.5%) Places 41 (70.7%)
POT 37.8% POT 0.8%

Since 1/1/08
Selections 10
Wins 4 (S/R 40.0%) Places 8 (80.0%)
POT 20.0% POT 19.0%

Here is another long term winner.

Won last 4 starts.

( No other rules)_

Cheers.
darky.

Overall it doesn't work out on Metro tracks as a winning (as in profitable ) system Darky.... but it is slightly infront in WA, SA and VIC.

Stix, on the same theme, I have been trying to find out for ages the overall figures for the folowing: take all duel winners MISS it's next race then place one unit to win on it's next two runs (regardless of it's 3rd run position) AND also a one unit running double on it's 4th and 5th runs. Do you have the means of solving this one? it would be appreciated.

So, not a genuine guaranteed winning system anywhere here. Is there? Why would you tell?

Crash you're wrong heres one!

(1) Apply for a bookmakers licence.

(2) Attend the local course, and set up a book for each race to say 120%, balance that by the usual lay offs etc etc. If there's a race/horse that you don't wanna be involved with just offer stupid prices and lay any mug money off at the better price.

(3) Result = Guaranteed profits!!

lose not loose
 

Bhagwan, the correct word is lose, not loose, please

im sure that anybody who reads my wonderful posts thinks im a complete ???
but im going to give you my top drawer lay method anyway
1/last 2 starts.= 1st or 2nd or 3rd
2/those last 2 runs in no more than same class

Hi Stix.

Depends on what prices one can get.

There,s a couple in tomorrow too.

Cheers.
darky

12/7/08 to 19/7/08
287 races
win return $243.30 (unitab) 49 winners
Place return $245.30 124 placed

First three races only:)
104 races
Win return $124.10
Place $93.40

So, not a genuine guaranteed winning system anywhere here. Is there? Why would you tell?

There is no such thing as a guaranteed winning system.
Vendor may provide a guarantee, but nobody can guarantee the future.
Even bookies cannot guarantee a profit, some have gone bust, especially the one's who gamble.
If a bookie offers 2/1 about a 20/1 shot and he takes a huge bet just at the deathknock that he can't lay off, the horse could still win - the horse doesn't know his odds.

The winning system I use at the moment, is get the best odds about the best horses.
It's not guaranteed, but it provides a nice return.

But one needs discipline and bank management to pull it off.

Crash, I know you have an aversion to odds on favourites, but if you get a very good price about them, then you make money.
However often they win or lose.

Odds on favourites that lose make very good lay opportunities next start as well ;)

Chrome, I don't doubt your word, but surely a Bookie could only go bust if he/she was an opinion bookie? As otherwise his book is always balanced to win isn't it? and as I understand it he can always refuse a bet? I'm not deliberately causing an argument, I'm just curious to confirm what I've been led to believe is true!