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-   -   Talking thru the kick. (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=16857)

Gerry 10th November 2007 07:27 PM

Talking thru the kick.
 
Will you all stop whinging and blame the one person responsible for your lack of success at the punt, i.e. yourselves !

Golden rule # 1. You can beat a race, but you can't beat the races.

So, pick out the races you can beat and forget about the others. I suggest you start by eliminating the following races.......

all 2yo races;

all fillies races;

low class restricted handicaps;

3yo races between August & January;

Jumps / hurdles;

Races where more than 20% of the field is running 1st or 2nd. up from a spell;

Races with more than 14 ( preferably 12 ) starters;

I know I sometimes rate races as above, but only because they may be group or listed races, legs of the quaddy etc., at this time of the year but generally speaking adhere to the above.

I would be interested to hear the "Golden Rules" of other Forum members.

Gerry

Concentrate on higher class races with reasonably sized fields and you are half way home.

crash 10th November 2007 09:24 PM

Your on a roll mate. Agree with all the races to throw out the window, but would add all 'fillies and mares' races, all 3 yr. old fillies before January and all mares races [they take it in turns] and any race below 1100m.

Throw out any horse that hasn't won for a year or started within 21 days and ignore any horse that is more that 5yrs old except for 6yr. olds at 2000m or above at 4th or 5th up.

crash 11th November 2007 06:48 AM

You could also add Cups races [except for an interest bet] as they present poor value odds considering the difficulty in finding the winner.

Any horse that has already has had 6 runs this prep. are worth ignoring, because they are usually past their peak.

Mancunian 11th November 2007 09:16 AM

Ger,
You didn't specifically mention Maidens ?
manc

Gerry 11th November 2007 11:29 AM

Thanks mate,
 
yes, maidens definitely out......

Gerry

darkydog2002 11th November 2007 12:13 PM

My biggest winners are on MAIDEN races.

Todays DONALD R 1 H 3 = NIYAZOV

darky.

Gerry 11th November 2007 12:47 PM

Racing today.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
My biggest winners are on MAIDEN races.

darky.


Feel free Darky, if they work for you then that's great.

The only races I would consider today are at Donald and Cranbourne.

At Donald there is Race 6, the open handicap Donald Cup @ 3.55pm in which I would rate as follows using the VERY limited info available in the daily paper;

TAB ODDS
5 $4.90
8 $4.90
9 $4.90
6 $8.50
4 $12.30
3 $18.30
10 $18.30
2 $28.10
7 $69.90
11 $100.00
13 $100.00
1 $100.00
12 $100.00

I won't be betting today.

At Cranbourne the only race I would consider would be the open handicap race 6, but as 7 of the 12 horses are running 1st. or 2nd. up, best to give it a miss.

Gerry

PS these prices are framed to 100 %.

darkydog2002 11th November 2007 01:15 PM

Thanks Gerry
4 should win the 1st at CRAN.
Unfortunately lost.

Must admit I do like UNRACED favs .

Cheers.
darky.

crash 11th November 2007 01:26 PM

Cup Races? They are one of the hardest races to pick, the fields usually too big and form often hard to line up too. Except for an interest bet, out the window with them for me.

Gerry 11th November 2007 02:31 PM

Donald race 6 after scratchings
 
TAB ODDS
9 $3.70
5 $3.80
6 $6.80
4 $7.40
3 $10.90
2 $16.40
7 $56.90
11 $86.00
1 $100.00


Gerry

mad 11th November 2007 03:13 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerry
Will you all stop whinging and blame the one person responsible for your lack of success at the punt, i.e. yourselves !


Concentrate on higher class races with reasonably sized fields and you are half way home.
Hmmm...

Would the Spring carnival at Flemington fit into this category?

justinfront 11th November 2007 03:36 PM

Hmmm...LOL

Gerry 11th November 2007 04:32 PM

Spring Carnival
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mad
Hmmm...

Would the Spring carnival at Flemington fit into this category?


I rated more races at the Spring Carnival than I would normally ( see "Gerry's Tips" thread, simply because it was the Spring Carnival and the interest that goes with it, although the fields were bigger than I like. So the answer is yes.

Gerry

Gerry 11th November 2007 04:39 PM

Not sure what you are on about ?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by justinfront
Hmmm...LOL


Would you care to elaborate ?

Anyone get on the Donald Cup winner I rated at $3.80 and paid $7.50 ?

Gerry

westi 11th November 2007 05:19 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerry
Would you care to elaborate ?

Anyone get on the Donald Cup winner I rated at $3.80 and paid $7.50 ?

Gerry


Yep, got on!

crash 11th November 2007 06:38 PM

I think your on the right track Jerry but I'm a bit more vicious about excluding races as serious betting propositions.
Since the Flu. crisis, except for a few races I basically wiped out the whole spring carnival as a serious betting proposition. Proved to be a good move for me anyway.

Gerry 11th November 2007 07:38 PM

The hardest time
 
to pick winners will come when the bans on interstate transport are lifted.

Can you imagine what it will be like with all the horses which will be resuming from an extended spell at the same time.

They'll be getting up without names !!

Casterton tomorrow: another meeting to avoid.

Gerry

diogenes 12th November 2007 10:00 AM

I cannot tell you how excited I am in anticipation of the CHAOS!!!!

Gerry 12th November 2007 02:24 PM

Diogenes
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by diogenes
I cannot tell you how excited I am in anticipation of the CHAOS!!!!


was a Greek philosopher who believed in Self control and simple living.

Not sure how that marries up with your anticipation of the chaos to come !

Gerry


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