Default Neurals
 

I've had some spare time so I've looked at a Lay method using the neural default settings.

1) 170 neural points or less.
3) Nine runners or more.
3) Lay the neural fave.
4) CP algorithym to have 10 points or more.

I don't know why the CP can be puzzling but there was a selection that won one race from two starts but was allotted only one CP point - ???.

I've looked at the results from last Saturday. There's been 38 selections for 37 smiles, (not a bad strike rate for the top selection in most lay or bet methods)) and almost all of them started at single prices, some were even the fave. It's probably only coincidence, but...

If anyone's interested there's one selection yet to run - Muswellbrook 8/7.

I layed the selection for a liability of $33. It started fave and was beaten for a profit of $9.30.

I'll give it a go tomorrow and list the selections here.

Onya MG
 

You keep looking for new challenges and push the boundaries. That's the sort of spirit that made this country. I retired voluntarily last September but am still a few years away from being eligible for the pension, so I've devoted my time to making a sustainable living from racing.
It never ceases to amaze me how much there is to research and explore. I find it fascinating and am glad I stumbled across this forum.
Good luck with it.
RP

What made this country great is the Wiggles, I'm told.

Where have you been?
 

You're a pioneer too Speedy. What's cookin' in the kitchen? You must have something up your sleeve!
RP

I'm resting on my laurels a bit, RP. You're doing your bit with a new method on the other thread, I see.
Since field sizes have increased dramatically backers are lining up to give me their money ( in running ). The more I offer the more they take even on quiet Monday and Tues meetings. May Allah be with them.

Push the limits MG!
 

Don't stop with your top rated selection meeting the criteria only. If the top doesn't qualify move down the list and select the next horse that does. I revised your rules and applied it to yesterday: 15 bets 1 accident Nett profit $1,386.83 ($1000 L)

Cheers RP

Revised rules
 

I'll dry run these selections based on MG's rules except if top rated horse doesn't meet criteria move down list to find next horse that does:
Canterbury R2/1; R5/9; R6/8; R7/9;
Doomben R4/10; R6/3; R7/13; R8/9
Launceston R1/9; R2/3; R5/2; R6/5;R7/1; R8/3; R9/3
Sale R3/4; R6/3; R7;4; R8/8
Strathalbyn R6/1; R7/5; R8/1
Narrogin R1/11; R2/3; R3/1; R4/4; R5/7; R6/5; R7/3; R8/2
Min field size 9
Interesting to see how it fares?
RP

Thanks, RP.

My original intention was to see if races with low neural points targeted "open" races that produced high divvies. It started with a bang but slowly petered out where the race fave won their fair share of races.

But what I did notice was that the neural fave of 170 points and less performed terribly so I checked the results back to Saturday and was pleasantly surprised. I have no logical explanation for this because the race faves showed no consistency/bias so why should the fave of these races that had low neural points?

RP, yesterday I also looked at what you suggest but checking different variations I could find nothing advantageous. However I currently haven't given up.

Your results from yesterday's racing are very impressive with both strike rate and profit.

I'll also be closely looking at today's selections of your method - good luck.

Today's selections:

Launceston
6/1
9/6

Sale
3/3
6/3
8/8

Narrogin
1/2
2/3
4/4
6/5
7/3
8/2


I had trouble accessing the R&S website so I decided not to be idle and also test a new Lay method based on the Sky ratings.

There must be a maximum gap of two points between the top selection (100 points) and the second selection (98 or 99 points).

The 100 pointers for these races are: (I'm also looking at the price of the race winner and the exotics)

Canterbury
R1

Sale
Races 4, 6, 7

Dombeen
R4

Narrogin
Races 5, 7.

Not a bad day. From the 11 selections there was 10 smiles for a profit of $17.68.

Never, Never, Never Give UP!
 

MG you didn't post your Sky Ratings selection results: 7 bets 1 loss 0.216 L nett profit. Not bad!!

My selections fared well 22 bets 0 loss 3.815 L nett profit. If I removed the 9 horse filter and lowered it to a 7 horse field the results were: 29 bets 1 loss 3.756 L nett profit. Average Odds 11.21.
Now that really makes me smile! This is what Lay betting should be like. No more picking up one & two cent pieces, no more 30% bonus in the long-shot backers pockets.
Thanks to MG for laying the foundations. Only Day 1 of 1 and I haven't put real money on yet!
Cheers RP

Ngunnawal Selections 14/03
 

Ballarat R1/6; R2/1; R3/5; R4/11; R5/3; R6/1; R7/8; R8/3
Bunbury R1/1; R2/6; R3/5; R5/5; R6/1; R7/6; R8/4; R9/3
Sunshine Coast R2/12; R3/11;R6/8; R7/2; R8/2
Wyong R1/3; R2/8; R4/5; R5/1; R6/12; R7/5; R8/8
RP

Hi, RP, well done.

The Sky Ratings had 2 accidents from the 7 selections - the 2 accidents were on Unitab but only 1 on Betfair. Still, it was quite disappointing and not what I hoped.

I still can't understand why the neural outsider method is performing so well. I'll give it another go today.

"Twins" selection system
 

I thought the Ngunnawal system was great but try this one.Taking ideas from MG's Sky Rating system yesterday and TO's DART system, this system is called "Twins".
Rules: in each race where Unitab has either a pair of 100 rated or a 100 & a 99 pair. Lay the longest priced 100 rated horse if a pair of 100's or if a 100 & a 99 pair, Lay the 99 rated horse.

On yesterday's races 19 bets 0 losses 4.655 L nett profit!! Let me re emphasize this $1000 liability, no losses for a return of $4,655 in one day!!!
Try it for yourselves, good luck, RP

Very interesting, RP.
As Michael said, he didn't understand the logic of this method so you might as well go down to the first "illogical" selection in the race. More action and more profit/ loss, hopefully the former.
This piggybacking of ideas is a good thing. You're no slouch in the system thinking area, RP. Michael's prowess in that area is already well known. Good onya, both of you.
BTW is Ngunnawal aboriginal for illogical?

Should that be Wyong R8/9, RP, or am I confused?

Should be No. 8 Speedy. No 9 had an NR of 171 which exceeds MG's rule: "=< 170".
I'm only following the "Dons" rules plus value adding to the merchandise.
Cheers RP

'Ngunnawal' pertains to the aboriginal lands now known as Canberra. I alluded to it in the Quaddy thread and somehow it has passed into the Pro-Punter vocabulary!

Nothing like a bit of fusion in this place... thoughts, words, ideas, systems,wonga,madness? etc etc

Cheers LG

LG

From the Lodge
 

Anything that comes from me, comes direct from the Lodge your Lordship. If you look closely at the attached painting, I've got in the "Bald Archies", that's me on the balcony. The "First Bloke" doesn't know yet!!...lol
Cheers RP

No 9 has a NR of 163 after scratchings. I presume you did them before scr.

Well, Ngunnawal is as incomprehensible to me as Canberra's internet betting rules, LG.

Hi Rinconpaul. This looks very interesting. Can you list these selections today so I can work out how you've done it?

The only thing I can see is you have to be in front of the computer just before each race. Would some sort of pre-post market work with this like the morning line from Racing & Sports so I can load the selections on the bot in the morning before work?

Yesterday's only accident was in a Maiden race. So I'm identifying today's Maiden races with a (M).

Ballarat
3/7(M)
7/7

Bunbury
1/7(M)
2/1(M)
5/1(M)
6/3
9/11

Sun Coast
2/7(M)
3/11(M)
7/8
8/3
9/1

Wyong
2/9 (M)
3/1 (M)
6/12
5/2
8/9

I don't have a good feeling about today, it's my normal unease with the neurals.

Just a quick point - default neurals for some reason does not include the WT algorithym.

RP, my problem with the SKY method is that I can't be at my computer to check the prices, but good luck with it.

Yeah Speedy, I do them about 4.30am before the R & S website crashes! I did the same yesterday, that might have something to do with its success yesterday?
RP

Todays "TWINS" races are:
Sunshine Coast 3, 6
Wyong 4
Balarat 5, 6, 7, 8
Bunbury 3, 8, 9,10
I haven't checked yet whether scratchings, other than horses rated 99 or 100, change anything?
Yes you probably do have to be at your computer unless there is a more sophisticated bot out there that allows you to program it this way.
RP

MG we both should have certain common selections when the top rated neural selection is =< 170 and CP 10+ but I've just checked yours and there all over the shop! Are you sure you have the default setting with everything on 3? Example: Wyong 2/9 No. 9 has NR of 108.5 and CP 3;
Wyong 3/1 has NR of 190.
Or maybe I'm using a different setting to you?
Check before you commit, RP

Ngunnawal revised selections
 

Rechecked selections in accordance with scratchings. Changes: Bunbury R2/1
Sunshine Coast R7/8

Speedy I'm still intrigued re Wyong R8/ 9 Commanding Cash still shows as NR 171, including the two scratchings 14 & 1, on my R & S page. You say on yours it's 163? I can't explain this!
RP

Thanks, RP. I had incorrectly deleted the BP algorithym which distorted the genuine selections.

My corrected selections are:

Ballarat
7/7

Bunbury
2/1 (M)

Sun Coast
2/7(M)
7/8

Wyong
6/12
8/9

Wyong 8/9 has 171 points because the WET algorithym has been included.

I can't either. It is Commanding Cash, rated $4.0 and an NR of 163.0.
Bizarre.

Thanks Michael. I had overlooked the WET algo. Sorry for the confusion, RP.

So endeth the Ngunnawal trial
 

At least the twins are doing OK!
RP

I've only layed the non Maidens.

There's been 4 selections with one more to go. The 3 selections became 3 smiles which have produced a healthy profit of $36.99.

The remaining selection is Wyong 8/9.

How many losers have you had in the Aboriginal trial today, RP?

One less than the Ben-E-Ficiary totalled for the 9th, 10th & 11th March, four! My bot says its only -0.56 L down at the moment but the Twins are 0.86L up. If it wasn't for two silly mistakes on my part, the Cadillac would be up 0.7L.
Considering the Ngunnawal returned 3.8L yesterday I'm not ringing up the Salvos just yet.
Happy Speedy
RP

Good work chaps. Never thought I would clap my eyes on a nice set of puppies err twins again.

Giddy up.. up !

LG

Not sure what beneficiary has to do with it. Must have missed something.
The reason I asked was that I was following the aboriginal method and I had laid 3 losers when you posted but was actually still a bit in front. I wondered why your heading indicated that you were giving up. I had an upper limit of 15.0 so must have missed one of the four.
I finished almost 1xL in front so it was a good bad day.

The method today had 4 selections for 4 smiles for a profit of $39.46.

Out of interest I applied the same rules to non-Maidens.

On Tuesday there were 10 selections for 10 smiles for a profit of $32.
On Wednesday there were 16 selections for 14 smiles for a profit of $4.
Today there have been 13 selections for 11 smiles (2 more races to go) for a current profit of $50.

The two races and the selections yet to be run are Bunbury 9/6 and 10/9.

TWINS & Ngunnawal Results
 

TWINS excellent result: 11 bets 0 losses 1.323L nett profit.
Ngunnawal: 21 bets 4 losses -0.295 L nett loss. Considering the number of losses the system displayed great recovery.
All in all a worthwhile excercise with some modifications required going forward.
RP

Today's selections:

Moonee valley
8/9

Ipswich
7/5

Swan Hill
8/1

Port Mac
8/1

Goulburn
4/4

Geraldton
5/2
7/1
8/1