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Melbourne Cup 2019
Yes, I do feel silly for starting a thread about it this early. But there has been news.
Another race has been announced as having a ballot exemption for the Melbourne Cup. The Andrew Ramsden, to be held on May 29th next year, will give locals a greater chance of making the final field. Its timing is ahead of the Spring arrival of international raiders. This follows particularly strident criticism of the race becoming too "international" in recent editions. This year's victor was Sin To Win, who had an Official Rating of 84 at the time, which increased to 94 during the Spring. Megablast is similarly a 6yo gelding, was among the final acceptances, has a rating of 102 and was given 52.5kg for the big race. Arguably Sin To Win would have been given 50kg (the minimum weight for 4yo&up horses), so would possible have already been 1.5kg off the pace. Of course the standard would be expected to be raised an account of the announcement. Also sweetening the pot: an increase in prizemoney from $200k to $400k. The other change is in the race conditions. It will drop down to 2800m from the previous 3200m, and entry will be limited to 3 to 5yo's. The rationale, according to the Victoria Racing Club, being an effort "aimed to afford Australia’s brightest young stayers the chance to compete" in the Melbourne Cup. The race will also now be held under weight-for-age conditions. Per the VRC CEO: "Unlike the other four Lexus Melbourne Cup ballot exempt races, the timing of The Andrew Ramsden outside of spring means the winner can have their program tailored towards the Lexus Melbourne Cup, something which owners and trainers will appreciate." ...now I'll just have to remember this thread exists in a few months' time! ;) |
Inside two weeks to the new ballot exempt race for the Melbourne Cup, The Andrew Ramsden.
Flemington, May 25th Race 9 - The Andrew Ramsden (2800 METRES) Of $400,000. 1st $240,000, 2nd $72,000, 3rd $36,000, 4th $18,000, 5th $10,000, 6th $8,000, 7th $8,000, 8th $8,000 Prize money contribution totalling 2% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution Listed No class restriction, Set Weights, Three-Years-Old, Four-Years-Old and Five-Years-Old, No sex restriction Nominations close: Mon 20-May-19 12:00PM AEST Weights for competitors in the Andrew Ramsden will see three-year-olds carrying 55kg, four-year-olds 59kg and five-year-olds 59.5kg, with fillies and mares receiving a 2kg allowance. Some of the possible starters: Eastender (5yoG - 102 rating) Steel Prince (5yoG - 94 rating) Felaar (5yoG - 86 rating) Alfarris (5yoG - 86 rating) Surprise Baby (4yoG - 100 rating) Furrion (4yoG - 98 rating) Mr Quickie (3yoG - 90 rating) |
Here are the nominees for Saturday's Andrew Ramsden. The winner will receive a ballot exemption for the 2019 Melbourne Cup.
Surprise Baby looks one of the likeliest candidates. |
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Tip-top finish. Steel Prince got the golden ticket. Surprise Baby gallant in defeat. Dead-heat would have been nice, both would have got thru. The race a hit with fans. |
Steel Prince is the first horse into the 2019 Melbourne Cup after winning last weekend's Andrew Ramsden. He's at $31 in early Melbourne Cup betting, finishing just 0.1L ahead of Surprise Baby ($26) who inarguably had the better race: drawn second widest, 3 wide or worse the trip, back further than midfield but took the lead at the 200m mark before being narrowly out-sprinted in the final furlong. Eastender ($67) flashed home to finish in 3rd position, 2.4L adrift.
Having a ballot exemption for the Andrew Ramsden was intended to provide a pathway for Australian horses into the Cup. While Steel Prince is Irish-bred and had a handful of early races there, it seems he's been a local since 2017. From August 2018, Steel Prince has had 11 starts for 7 wins and 4 seconds (with all bar two starts at 2400m or greater). Now spelling, his connections will be able to tailor his Spring program so that he peaks on Cup Day. (sorry for my dupe info Rogan Josh, I've had this browser tab open for a couple of days waiting for motivation to strike; I didn't refresh before posting) |
2019 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP
(159th of Series) 3200 Metres TUESDAY 5 NOVEMBER 2019 At FLEMINGTON RACECOURSE, MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA Prizes First - $4,000,000 and trophies valued at $200,000, $20,000, $15,000, $7,500 & $7,500 to owner, rider, trainer, strapper and breeder respectively Second - $1,000,000 Third - $500,000 Fourth - $300,000 Fifth - $200,000 Sixth - $150,000 Seventh - $150,000 Eighth - $150,000 Ninth - $150,000 Tenth - $150,000 Eleventh - $150,000 Twelfth - $150,000 For horses earning prizemoney for being placed 1st – 12th inclusive, respective prizemonies payable shall be distributed as follows: Owner - 85%; Trainer - 10%; Rider - 5% Entries Entries close at 12 NOON on THURSDAY 29 AUGUST 2019. Fee - $1800. (Late Entries: Any horse not previously entered may be nominated before 12 NOON on THURSDAY 5 SEPTEMBER 2019. Fee - $5,500.) Handicaps Handicaps will be declared not later than TUESDAY 10 SEPTEMBER 2018. Benchmark Weights: 3YO C&G 50.0kg; 3YO Filly 48.5kg 4YO E&G 58.0kg; 4YO Mare 56.5kg 5YO+ E&G 59.5kg 5YO+ Mare 58.0kg NH 3YO C&G 56.5kg; NH 3YO Filly 55.0kg Minimum Handicap Weight: 3YO 49.0kg 4YO&Up 50.0kg. There is no maximum weight for this race. Minimum top weight of 58kg at the time of weights being released. There is no minimum top weight after acceptances. No allowances for apprentices. Weight Penalties The Handicapper can determine that, after declaration of weights, a subsequent winner of an internationally recognised Listed, Group or Graded flat race may carry additional weight. (It's only applicable for handicapped races >= 1600m, or non-handicaps >= 2300m). Declarations of Acceptance There is now a third declaration ahead of final declarations. It now costs an additional $1,000 all-up, in comparison to last year. First Declaration: TUESDAY 1 OCTOBER (Fee: $2,000) Second Declaration: TUESDAY 15 OCTOBER (Fee: $3,000) Third Declaration: MONDAY 28 OCTOBER (Fee: $4,000 Final Declaration: SATURDAY 3 NOVEMBER (Fee: $49,500) Any horse for which a declaration is not received is removed from the race. Rider Notification By 7.00 PM, SATURDAY 2 NOVEMBER Ballot Exemptions - 2019 Andrew Ramsden - 2019 VRC Bart Cummings - 2019 VRC Hotham Handicap (Lexus Stakes) - 2019 MVRC Cox Plate - 2019 MRC Caulfield Cup Qualifying Performances A) since 1 February 2018 inclusive, won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in an internationally recognised Group or Graded flat race run over 2300 metres or further; OR won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the: Queensland Derby (2018 - Dark Dream, Heavenly Thought, Mahamedeis; 2019 - TBH 8th June), Queensland Oaks (2018 - Youngstar, Another Dollar, Sheezdashing; 2019 - TBH 1st June), or Brisbane Cup (2018 - Sedanzer, Anton En Avant, Kiwia; 2109 - TBH 8th June) OR B) since 1 February 2018 inclusive, was placed 4th or 5th in an internationally recognised Group 1 or Grade 1 flat race run over 2300 metres or further in which horses older than 3 years old could run, OR C) since 1 February 2018 inclusive, won an internationally recognised Listed flat race run over 2300 metres or further, OR D) since 1 February 2018 inclusive, won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the York Ebor (UK; 2018 - Muntahaa, Weekender, Sea The Lion; 2019 - TBH 24th August) or Champions & Chater Cup (HK; 2018 - Pakistan Star, Exultant, Gold Mount; 2019 - Exultant, Rise High, Dark Dream), OR E) since 1 February 2018 inclusive, won the Northumberland Plate (UK; 2018 - Withhold; 2019 - TBH 29th June), Cesarewitch (UK; 2018 - Low Sun; 2019 - TBH 12th October), or Queen Mother Memorial Cup (HK; 2018 - Exultant; 2019 - Mulanchi), OR F) was placed 6th, 7th or 8th in the 2019 MRC Caulfield Cup (20th October), OR G) was placed 2nd or 3rd in the 2019 MVRC Cox Plate (26th October), OR H) won the 2019 VRC TAB Turnbull Stakes (5th October), OR I) won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the 2017 Emirates Melbourne Cup (Rekindling, Johannes Vermeer, Max Dynamite), OR J) won the 2017 Caulfield Cup (Boom Time) Ballot order will be - asides from those runners who are exempt - in descending weight figure. Those of equal weight will be ordered by aggregate prizemoney received in Qualifying Races since 1 February 2018 inclusive. Progressive order of entry lists will be available on a regular basis from Friday 13 September 2019. |
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While of course dependent on overseas entrants, the Oaks winner will be in a very good position to make the Melbourne Cup final field. Northern hemisphere 3 years olds in the Cup have also collectively been penalised 1kg this year, so perhaps that will result in fewer entries making their way here. The race favourite is PRINCESS JENNI, who has a 4kg advantage on the rest of the field per the official handicap ratings. She won the Australasian Oaks at Morphettville earlier this month over 2000m on a soft track. She also has the same sire as Youngstar: High Chaparral. Her broodmare sire is Zabeel, which is a mix that has had some pretty good results. Per the Nicking Stats for mares by Zabeel (NZ) when bred to High Chaparral (IRE), progeny have nearly 5 times the average earning index. It looks like she'll have no problem getting the Cup distance; to the extent that I was worried she may be too dour. Following her Australasian Oaks win though, a stable rep said: "Every time since her maiden win, she's always been sharp, always had a serious turn of foot and to overcome a bunch of problems in the run to sprint like that when the gap came was impressive." So if Princess Jenni can back up and win tomorrow she's a good chance of making the Cup field....and finishing 5th-10th. (No mare has finished better than 5th the past 11 runnings). Overseas this weekend, one could cast their gaze to the Group 2 Grand Prix De Chantilly or the Group 1 Coronation Cup. The latter, set to jump just after midnight tonight, is likely to be of more interest, with the following starters: Communique Cypress Creek Defoe Kew Gardens Marmelo Morando Old Persian Salouen Lah Ti Dar Kew Gardens was number 1 in the Melbourne Cup order of entry last year but elected not to come. He's favourite here at $3.25, with Old Persian ($4) and Lah Ti Dar ($4.50) close behind. Last year's Melbourne Cup second placegetter Marmelo is at $19. Finche (4th) came through the Grand Prix De Chantilly last year. It's on June 2nd and it may be easier to find the runners in a day or so. |
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Huge effort Surprise Baby, wide most of the race. A post-race veterinary examination revealed that the gelding pulled up distressed. He gave his all. I'm now a fan! |
Boilover in the Queensland Oaks. Taking the victory was Winning Ways at $21, quickly followed by Dawson Diva and Lady Cuvee: both at $151! Consequently the exotics were HUGE. The trifecta paid over $180k on UBet; though 'only' $10k in NSW. The first four were all over the $100k mark across all pools.
Winning Ways wasn't that bad of a prospect. She had won 3 of her last 4, though finished midfield in The Roses - her immediately preceding race - which seemed to turn people off. Per the race notes, she got way too far back in that run from a wide draw, running on comfortably but left with too much to do. It seems silly to say given that she won, but Winning Ways clearly had the best run today. The leading four in running (which included race favourite Princess Jenni) took the field along at a fast clip, with Winning Ways a small break behind. Finishers in second through fifth were all running towards the rear and gobbled up a tired field, though Winning Ways was able to hold them all off. It was an emotional win, given that her owner had died the preceding week. After the race her trainer Garry Newham said: "This is the best filly I have ever had my hands on. She could be a Caulfield Cup horse". Following the race though, stewards reported she had bled and is banned from racing for three months - likely she was to spell anyway. Hopefully she can come back fit and healthy for a Spring campaign. So: Winning Ways, Dawson Diva and Lady Cuvee have all now passed the first ballot clause of the Melbourne Cup. The latter pairing will likely have to win a few more qualifying races to amass enough eligible prizemoney to threaten making the final field. You could read into the trainer's statement somewhat that there are queries at the Cup distance. Watch the full race here: https://www.racingqueensland.com.au...20190309/race/6 The Coronation Cup has been run in the UK with Defoe taking out a comfortable 0.5L win ahead of Kew Gardens. They broke away from the rest of the field, putting on an additional 5 lengths. The race was one of the fastest of latter years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYRP4st_-Cw Leading into the race Defoe had an Official Handicap Rating (from Irish authorities) of 115, whereas Kew Gardens (from British authorities) was 120. They were at level weights here and Kew Gardens was said to be targeting this race since the start of the season. So a very encouraging performance by Defoe (who also beat the 117-rated Marmelo by 9 lengths). Would likely receive a very challenging handicap for the Melbourne Cup now and one could think it pretty unlikely that either of Defoe or Kew Gardens will try their luck in Australia. The field is set for the Grand Prix de Chantilly: Listen In Aspetar Gyllen Silverware Petit Fils Folamour Ziyad Aspetar is owned by Sheikh Fahad al Thani (of Qatar Bloodstock), who won the 2011 Melbourne Cup with Dunaden, trained by Roger Charlton who had Quest For More in the 2015 Cup and failed to qualify with Withhold last year. Gyllen is a Godolphin runner trained by Andre Fabre, who brought Vadamos to Australia in 2016 (finishing 4th in both the Cox Plate and Mackinnon Stakes). Both Folamour and Ziyad are owned by Wertheimer & Frere, a racing and breeding operation. They bred Americain and Dunaden, amongst others, but I'm not sure they have brought any runners out here themselves. Aspetar looks a particularly interesting candidate: resuming in April over a Group 3 2400m, he finished in 2nd place, 1 length behind Marmelo and 3 lengths ahead of Defoe at level weights. Didn't do so well in his next, but was said not to handle the soft conditions. 2w-3p from 7 starts. Looks like he should be able to handle further than 2400m. |
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Both have firmed in the Cup market I've been watching Steel Prince $21,,Surprise Baby $26 Cross Counter $15 favourite |
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 You can watch the race here: https://www.equidia.fr/courses/2019-06-02/R1/C4 Ran slightly worse than midfield, gave the leaders around 6 lengths start and ran them down somewhat comfortably. Wrap him up in cotton wool, send him down here and run him in a lead-up race if he needs to jump up the order of entry. |
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Not surprising, Surprise Baby off for a well-earned break |
Some qualifying races this weekend:
The Belmont Gold Cup Invitational will be held Saturday morning, Australian time. Red Cardinal won the race in 2017. Last year the field included Prince of Arran, who went on to take out third place in the Melbourne Cup. The field this year: Mootasadir Noble Thought Amade Red Knight Highland Sky Arklow Hunter O'Riley Raa Atoll Canessar Mootasadir is trained by Hugo Palmer who brought out Wall of Fire for the 2017 Melbourne Cup. He's also owned by Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa bin Saeed Al Maktoum, cousin of the Dubai ruler and Godolphin head. Hugo spoke earlier this year regarding Mootasadir's target: "The long-term aim, an end goal, is for him to be a Melbourne Cup horse - but we have got to jump through various hoops to get there first." One of those hoops may be his poor showing on turf. Of his 9 starts he's had an impressive 6 wins, but those 3 losses (by 3L, 42L, and 18L respectively) have been his only runs on a turf surface. Per the British official ratings, he's a 6kg better horse on All-Weather. Speaking prior to his last loss - which admittedly was against Stradivarius - Palmer said: "He has got excuses for both runs on turf, but he has not done much wrong. Hopefully we can now try and get that win on the turf into him." The Belmont Gold Cup Invitational is over the turf course. It's also over 3200m: 800m further than his longest race to date. Raa Atoll is reportedly another horse with Melbourne Cup aims. He won the €100,000 G2 Comer Group International Oleander-Rennen (3200m) at Berlin’s Hoppegarten racecourse, defeating Thomas Hobson by 1.5 lengths, in mid-May. Thomas Hobson was the $1.50 favourite. Watch the race here: https://youtu.be/pgeWkOCIxvQ. The past two winners of the Oleander-Rennen have relocated to Australia - Red Cardinal (2017) and Sound Check (2018) - with both horses unplaced in subsequent Melbourne Cup attempts. Raa Atoll ran a quicker race though, if that counts for anything. Raa Atoll went up against a few other familiar names last season, finishing just over 1L behind Rostropovich in the 2400m Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at level weights, then failed badly (58L) in his next race, which featured Best Solution and Duretto. Also overseas this weekend, runners could pass the first ballot clause in contesting the Belmont Stakes, Brooklyn Invitational Stakes (also at Belmont) or the Betway Pinnacle Stakes (at Haydock Park, UK). Looks unlikely any candidate will come from those races though. In Australia we're set for the Queensland Derby (first 5 in betting: Nobu, Mr Quickie, Scarlet Dream, Carif, Fun Fact) and Brisbane Cup (Sixties Groove, The Candy Man, Haripour, Life Less Ordinary, Grey Lion) at Eagle Farm this Saturday. |
Amade takes out the Belmont Gold Cup. I read last night that OTI Racing had bought into him this March and boss Terry Henderson was confident he was well-placed in the race leading in:
"It’s a Group 2 race and a win there would probably take him up to (an international rating of) 112-to-114 mark and that makes him a serious Melbourne Cup horse. "Red Cardinal won it a couple of years ago. It’s on a flat track (the same as Flemington) so we get a good assessment of that and it’s also left-handed – the Melbourne way of running – so we’ll get a pretty good idea." Per their twitter after this morning's win: "A Melbourne Cup campaign will very much be on the agenda after an incredible win for connections!" You can read a comprehensive pre-race profile on him (and the other internationals in the field) here: https://www.twinspires.com/blog/201...ootasadir-amade You can watch the race here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRbfcKTh6Pg (with Spanish commentary). Mootasadir and Raa Atoll were 1-2 most of the way. They only seemed to go at a moderate pace though and were swept past in the straight. Race time was 3'19.95, which is the slowest since it become a black type race a few years ago. OTI Racing have Grey Lion ($7) and Master Zephyr ($101) in today's Brisbane Cup. |
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Not sure there's much thought of Mr Quickie going to the Melbourne Cup (currently unlisted in the Futures Market) whereas Sixties Groove looks at least some chance ($201). That's it for local qualifying races until the Newcastle Gold Cup on September 13th. Is it any wonder the race is now dominated by overseas horses? Speaking of foreign candidates, the next likeliest source of those runners is during the Royal Ascot Carnival (June 15th - June 24th). |
Changes announced today increased this year's Melbourne Cup prizepool to $8mil from $7.3mil:
First - Second - Third - Fourth - Fifth - Sixth - Seventh - Eighth - Ninth - Tenth - Eleventh - Twelfth - For horses earning prizemoney for being placed 1st – 12th inclusive, respective prizemonies payable shall be distributed as follows: Owner - 85%; Trainer - 10%; Rider - 5% |
Gold Mount won a guaranteed spot in the Ebor Handicap in the Listed 2800m Grand Cup Stakes at York over the weekend. The Ebor is held on the same/course distance and the last three winners there have subsequently contested The Melbourne Cup (2016: Heartbreak City, 2017: Nakeeta, 2018: Muntahaa). There is no guarantee he takes his earned position though, as it's also a handicapped race:
"In terms of the Ebor I think the handicapper will give him plenty of weight. He's a small horse, a big weight in a top handicap might be tough for him,” his trainer Ian Williams said. "He's been sent to me to be prepared for the Melbourne Cup, so we'll work back from there." You can watch his Grand Cup Stakes run here: http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...eplays/3/94641/ Gold Mount races at the rear before easily accounting for the rest of the field in the straight. As impressive as it looks, it's in a small field, he's a 6yo who will likely be weighted such that the same tactics won't work as well in the Melbourne Cup, and the time was 5secs slower than what Marmelo ran to win the same race the year previous. Gold Mount is an English horse who spent a spent a couple of seasons in Hong Kong. There, the owners decided to aim him at the Melbourne Cup. Shipping him back to the UK seems like a roundabout way of going about things, but there are so many more opportunities to qualify by that route. This was his first black-type win, which was preceded by 13 Group starts for 3 minor placings. His prior race was in the Dubai Gold Cup, his first over the 3200m distance, where Cross Counter beat him by 8 lengths (with Gold Mount carrying 2.5kg extra). Trainer Ian Williams was here last year with Magic Circle, who finished 16th in the Cup. (Magic Circle has since contested just the one race, resuming in a 2700m Group 3 at Chester, finishing in 3rd position and 8.5L behind the winner Morando. More encouragingly, in 2nd position - and only 0.5L ahead - was Kew Gardens). Gold Mount is currently at $26 in Melbourne Cup futures with Magic Circle at $61. |
I'm not really a follower of overseas racing (only in retrospect once the Melbourne Cup nominees are announced) but looking at the Royal Ascot Racing Carnival, the following races would be qualifying performances for the Melbourne Cup:
Queen's Vase - Wednesday midnight (AEST) Group 2 - 2847m - 3yo He didn't ultimately come to the Melbourne Cup, but last year's winner of this race, Kew Gardens, was an entrant. Hartnell and Stradivarius are also past victors. Western Australia is the current favourite ($4 - trained by Aidan O'Brien who has won 3 of the past 4 runnings), followed by Norway ($4.80 - also trained by O'Brien) and Jalmoud ($6 - trained by Charlie Appleby and owned by Godolphin, who teamed up to win the Cup with Cross Counter last year). Northern Hemisphere 3yo's have essentially been penalised an extra kilogram this year, but I don't expect that to be enough to totally dissuade those with a handy chance to make the trip, given the success of similarly-aged horses in recent times. The Gold Cup - Thursday 11:50pm (AEST) Group 1 - 4014m - 4yo+ Cross Counter vs the defending champ Stradivarius is the headline act with Dee Ex Bee, Kew Gardens, Flag of Honour, Magic Circle, Thomas Hobson and Master of Reality among those also featuring. Trip To Paris won this race in 2015 ahead of a Melbourne Cup tilt in the same year. At one stage he was favourite in the lead-up and finished a nice 4th in the Prince of Penzance win/dodgem derby. A place behind in that same race was Big Orange who would go on to win The Gold Cup a couple of years later. The King Edward VII Stakes - Friday midnight (AEST) Group 2 - 2406m - 3yo C&G Rostropovich was second in this race last year. Best Solution was 10th in it the year prior. The Hardwicke Stakes -Sunday 12:40am Group 2 - 2406m - 4yo+ |
Queen's Vase
Dashing Willoughby takes out the 2800m Queen's Vase, beating Barbados and Nayef Road in wet conditions after a betting plunge saw his starting odds halve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bGrZSmpXDE. Winner Dashing Willoughby is heading to the St Leger, as will the majority of this field given that they're all colts. The Gold Cup Stradivarius goes back-to-back, jumping at evens. He was always in the front group, alongside placegetters Dee Ex Bee and Master of Reality. Looked to be in a little danger after being boxed-in until well down the home straight, but Frankie Dettori managed to get him out. Cross Counter was the only challenger to run on from the rear and finished in 4th; this lead bunch putting 5 lengths on the rest of the field. The track condition was Soft, the race time nearly 10 seconds slower than what Stradivarius achieved last year. Watch the race here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOKDLEyQPms No chance of Stradivarius coming out for the Melbourne Cup: the handicapper would have him towing a caravan. Dee Ex Bee's racing manager seems to think they could turn the tables if things went a little differently. Apparently Dee Ex Bee's a battler who was focused on the tussle with Master of Reality on his immediate outside, rather than the lead horse who was wider. I think he's just proud of his horse. The Lloyd Williams Group owns Master of Reality and Nick Williams confirmed after the race that he'll be heading to Melbourne. Followers might recall that Master of Reality was meant to come to Australia last season (as companion to Latrobe), but there was no space for him in quarantine. I think he's a bit on the dour side if he makes the final field of the Melbourne Cup, but he should ensure that the race goes at a genuine clip, hoping to outlast the rest. Cross Counter would have lost very few fans with his performance. As noted above, he was the only horse to run on. At 2.5 miles it's a little longer than he'd like and perhaps reason enough that he didn't have quite the speedy, sustained finish as shown in the past - though the 57.5kg might have had something to with it also, along with the soft surface. Trainer Charlie Appleby stated after the race that a return for the Melbourne Cup would likely depend on the weight he was allotted - but it's certainly not off the table. |
The King Edward VII Stakes
Group 2 - 2406m - 3yo C&G Japan (the horse; not the country) won the King Edward VII stakes in comprehensive fashion. From his Jockey Ryan Moore: "This is a high-class colt. He's very good, and he put them to bed very easily there," he said. "He was the best horse. It was just keeping it simple, really. He could be more than a Leger horse—he's a good horse. He will be very effective over a mile and a half." He looks to be headed toward the St Leger but there appears to be some thought of meeting all-aged horses in the King George first, or even going on to the Arc. Bangkok and Eagles By Day took out the minors; neither of whom are talking about heading to Melbourne. Watch the race here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZQLxVm-NpI The Hardwicke Stakes Group 2 - 2406m - 4yo+ It was another favourite that took out the Hardwicke Stakes. Defoe has already had a few mentions in this thread, including noting his lead-up win in the Coronation Cup at a new career peak. Gelding really seems to have done him some favours. It was only a 0.75L win ahead of Nagano Gold, whose jockey spent the first furlong of the race determining his mount was still in one piece after Masar on his outside came out of the gates sideways. He was also held up and checked in the dash for home as he swept from the rear. Nagano Gold is a Czech horse. In 2016 there was a Czech entrant for the Melbourne Cup, Trip To Rhodos, but they weren't able to come in the end due to quarantine regulations. Because there is no agreement between Australia and the Czech Republic, a horse needs to spend 60 days in an approved country prior to importation. They left it too late in 2016, it looks like connections here are going to keep him in Europe. Watch the race here: https://youtu.be/yZ4ZQzDeuhg I listened to a radio interview from a couple of weeks ago with the VRC's Executive General Manager, who was asked about some of the foreign horses they were trying to get to Melbourne for the Cup (https://player.fm/series/rsn-racing...e-cup-wish-list). He said that there were a couple of runners in today's Takarazuka Kinen that had expressed some interest. The Takarazuka Kinen is a Group 1 2200m Turf race to be held at Hanshin racecourse later this afternoon. In recent times at least, the Japanese horses who have made the trip to Australia have tended to have proven they can run the Cup distance, rather than be the horse who can run it most effectively given the style of race. So it's interesting that a "couple of potential candidates" are contesting a far shorter race this time. No word on which of the runners are among those to have expressed interest, but the #1 horse Kiseki is trained by Katsuhiko Sumii who took out the 2006 Melbourne Cup with Delta Blues - and also trained Pop Rock who finished in 2nd. Kiseki also won a G1 3000m race for 3yos in 2017, so little fear of the 2 miles. After googling about, I discovered that it was reported earlier this month that Kiseki had received an invite from the Moonee Valley Racing Club to contest the Cox Plate. Almond Eye received a similar invite and had been anticipated to be in this race (runners are selected by popular vote and she was on top of the count) but withdrew. It's a fair chance that these are the two runners that were hinted at in the radio interview. Rey de Oro is the favourite in the race, but 6 of the 12 runners are at $10 or under (Kiseki is at $11 first up) so it will be hotly contested. |
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Watch the race here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNA9yh0Jga8 The Takarazuka Kinen may not be a Melbourne Cup qualifying race, but Kiseki came 2nd in the Japan Cup late last year - which is, given it's a G1 2400m - earning over $7mil. If they want in The Cup then a start would be pretty much assured. He looks to have changed his running style, perhaps with an Australian tilt in mind. His early races saw him running towards the rear, whereas the last few have had him lead. Kiseki also looks comfortable on tracks that aren't the typical Japanese Firm: that 3000m victory mentioned previously was on a heavy turf track. I think he might be slightly better suited to the Cox and Caulfield, but the extra entry fees for the Melbourne Cup wouldn't be a problem: why not all three! ;) |
A little bit of action overseas for potential foreign raiders:
There were some qualifying races in Italy and the USA (the Premio Gran Premio Di Milano and the San Juan Capistrano Invitational Handicap, respectively) but it's unlikely any candidates were racing there. A more likely source is Friday's Comer Group International Curragh Cup, a Group 2 2800m. Winners in past years have included Rekindling (2017) and Red Cadeaux (2011). There's currently a field of 19 though this includes several Dual Acceptors and it appears a max of 14 will make it to the gates. Twelve of the 19 horses are trained by O'Briens; 10 are sired by Galileo. The "name horse" in the field is Latrobe who, of course, is owned by the Williams Team and was shipped to Australia to run in last year's Cup. They eventually elected not to run him there due to the horse's immaturity, instead contesting the McKinnon Stakes where Latrobe was a narrow 2nd. Capri and Southern France have the highest ratings going into the race though there are plenty of challengers early on in their careers amongst the field. This includes Kangaroo Valley, who won a 2400m maiden by 8 lengths on Sunday (with a further 8 lengths back to third). Barbados is back after his second placing in the Queen's Vase and Raa Atoll returns from his US trip hoping to get back on track for his owner (and sponsor of the race). Back at Curragh on Saturday is the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby, a 2400m Group 1 for 3yos. Latrobe won this race last year and Capri the year before. Anthony Van Dyck and Broome from Coolmore are at the top of betting currently, with Shadwell Racing's Madhmoon also under $4. There have been a few stories of late regarding the penalisation of northern hemisphere 3 year olds in the Melbourne Cup this year (despite the information clearly appearing in the race conditions upon release over a month ago) so it will be interesting if any challengers come out of this race. Also this weekend are the following qualifying races:
Raa Atoll is misspelt (Raa Atoli) at $34 and they're remarkably bullish regarding the chances of Libran ($201) given that he was sadly euthanised after a track accident earlier this month. |
Comer Group International Curragh Cup
(Group 2 2800m) Latrobe held most of the race interest - certainly from a future Melbourne Cup perspective - but finished a narrow second to Twilight Payment, a former Godolphin horse. TP had previously finished 2nd to Order of St George on two occasions and within 3 lengths of Rekindling in his winning year. He had come into the Curragh Cup winning the Listed Levmoss Stakes over the same distance, so was showing good form. After that race his trainer Jim Bolger was reported as saying: "The better horses have been running well over the last six weeks and any little step up on that was helpful. He'd a good run at Navan the last day. He could go for the Curragh Cup and maybe Melbourne later in the year. He's been a good servant and is nothing if not consistent". Interestingly, the horse he beat in that Stakes race - Falcon Eight (who Racing Victoria's GM of International Operations revealed today is on their Melbourne Cup wishlist) - is listed at $26 now on Sportsbet for the Melbourne Cup. In the race prior he was within two lengths of Master of Reality, who's at $21. Twilight Payment doesn't feature in that list (or Ladbroke's or TAB's), but it was noted in several articles I've read that he's at $51. They're now likely to aim him at the St Leger trials (16th August) and then the St Leger Stakes (14th September) - 7 weeks out from The Cup. Plenty of time to make an attempt here, given that a horse must spend 2 weeks in quarantine prior to travel, followed by a further 2 weeks at Werribee. Watch the race here: https://www.racingtv.com/videos/watch/ondemand/34577 Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (2400m Group 1 for 3yos) Latrobe won this race last year. Anthony Van Dyck and Broome were at the top of early betting here and they're still listed quite highly in Cup futures (both $26 at TAB). They got whacked in this race though by another Coolmore/Aidan O'Brien runner - Sovereign, at odds - who put 6 lengths on the others. He went out to a huge early lead and the field could make very little in-road, with some calling it a betting sting. He did win his maiden by 14 lengths, so has talent, but his record appears very inconsistent. Watch the race here: https://youtu.be/SRAyZpPD9BU There might be an interesting prospect from another race on the same program: Buckhurst, who took out the 2000m International Stakes. Trained by Joseph O'Brien and owned by Lloyd Williams. Johannes Vermeer won the same race in 2017. As did Yucatan last year. Looks a good'n and is at $101 at Ladbroke's. Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud (2400m Group 1) Last year's Cup's second placegetter Marmelo finished 4 lengths back in 5th without threatening, just behind the Grand Prix de Chantilly winner Aspetar. Out in front was Coronet, closely followed by Ziyad and Lah Ti Dar. It was 36 degrees there the day before. Watch the race here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gQLBrP01jw Square de Luynes won the Oslo Cup (2400m Group 3). Race fave Mehdaayih won the Prix De Malleret (2400m Group 2 for 3yo fillies) and another fave in French King authoritatively won the Grosser Hansa-Preis (2400m Group 2). Coming up this weekend are the qualifying races the Lancashire Oaks and Deutsches Derby, both for 3 year olds and likely not of a standard to warrant the trip here. Looking at Futures markets, Godolphin's Ispolini is a horse that seems to be a quiet overachiever. On Ladbroke's he's at $21, the second line of betting, alongside Marmelo, Master of Reality and Torcedor (who missed his flight to Melbourne last year on reporting an elevated temperature). I haven't found any news saying he's coming, but he previously had an entry in this year's Sydney Cup. After winning the Nad Al Sheba Trophy (check out the finish: https://youtu.be/Tf0mhcEXq7Y?t=156) he elected to remain in Dubai for the Gold Cup instead, finishing 1.25L behind Cross Counter and way ahead of Gold Mount and Prince of Arran. That was back in March and he's since finished 7 lengths behind Stradivarius in the Yorkshire Cup Stakes. |
Channel 10 have won the broadcast rights for The Melbourne Cup this year (along with some supporting Spring Carnival meetings) and have just announced that they'll also be showing some international meetings in the lead-up. I guess that the idea is to highlight potential runners so that those imports who do come don't quite feel like randoms to local audiences. Doubtless this programming would have been in concert with Racing Victoria's own International Operations section and based upon their foreign raider hit-list. There might be some leads for those who like to trade in futures markets.
Upcoming international meetings that will be shown on Channel Ten are:
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"That was only the fifth race of his life. I look forward to training him for the next couple of years, that’s why I’m in no hurry this year. There is a big race in this horse. "He has got a big future ahead of him, as he is just a work in progress. I think he will go all the way to a Group One in time. The Melbourne Cup would be under consideration, but whether this year comes too soon, we will see how he progresses in the autumn". He was in a tight dual with Mekong, the pair putting 4 lengths on the rest of the field. Racing Victoria's handicapper Greg Carpenter was also impressed by his performance: "Another step taken by Falcon Eight on the road to the 2019 Melbourne Cup winning the Marathon Stakes over 2 miles @Sandown overnight for Dermot Weld and ridden by @FrankieDettori". Also on the Sandown program - the first of Channel 10's international racing broadcasts leading towards The Melbourne Cup - was the Eclipse, a 2000m Group 1 race that saw the triumphant return of Enable. Joining her in the field was Zabeel Prince who Paul Bloodworth, Racing Victoria’s general manager of international operations, had previously name-dropped as a potential raider flying under the radar. Odd choice, as he came last in this field of eight and with a record that looks like he'll struggle to make any distance over 1800m. Wells Farhh Go was another of Bloodworth's nominees and seems a likelier candidate, resuming this season in a Listed 2400m and winning by 4 lengths in late June. At Sunday's Deutsches Derby in Hamburg, a Group 1 for 3yos over 2400m, the Australian-connected (Suman Hedge Bloodstock) horse Django Freeman came second. Apparently he'll soon be on his way to Robert Hickmott, following much the same path as Schabau took: who is 3 from 3 in his Australian runs since arriving this Summer. They're going to assess how best to time Django Freeman's journey with a view of setting him for a Spring target: both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups have been mentioned as possibilities. Today's race was his first over the distance and - per the radio call - he finished off strongly. |
Entries for the Ebor Cup closed this past week. Among the 81 horses are Melbourne Cup possibles Prince of Arran, Falcon Eight, Gold Mount, Latrobe, Red Verdon, Thomas Hobson, Wells Farhh Go and Withhold. Max Dynamite is still kicking around in the entrants as a 9 year old! It's a handicap with weights to be released on July 24th, one month ahead of the race itself. The prizemoney has doubled this year up to the 1 million pound mark so will attract a very strong field. Current full entrants list here: https://www.racingpost.com/racecard...19-08-24/734038
In qualifying races,there was the John Smith's Silver Cup Stakes this past weekend at York over the Ebor course/distance. Red Verdon (at $21) won the race in a tight finish against Gold Mount and Raheen House. Check out the finish here: https://video.twimg.com/amplify_vid...NMcsVrRHI_E.mp4 Marmelo missed out by a nose on defending his crown in the Maurice De Nieuil Stakes, a Group 2 2800m at Longchamp. Way To Paris took the win, with the pair of them putting 4 lengths on 3rd. Marmelo's connections put in a protest, watch the race to see if it was warranted: https://youtu.be/JUYbtGgguiI Later on the same program, Japan (the horse) was the winning $1.40 favourite in the Juddmonte Grand Prix De Paris Stakes, a Group 1 2400m race for three year olds. Kew Gardens won this race last season. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8wa6QNpIts |
I've been a little slack on the news front the past couple of weeks, but couldn't miss today's announcement of nominees for the Cox Plate: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ate-nominations.
187 horses have put their name forward; up from 135 last year. Rostropovich, Youngstar, Ventura Storm, Ace High, Avilius and Red Cardinal were all 2018 Cox Plate nominees that went on to make the Melbourne Cup startlist. Aidan O'Brien has nominated 11 horses, 8 of these are Northern Hemisphere 3 year olds (SH 4yo), including the exciting Japan. His son Joseph has 4, including Buckhurst, Latrobe and Master of Reality. Liam Howley's nominated Johannes Vermeer and Yucatan, among others. From Japan they have Lys Gracieu and Meiner Fanrong coming. From France, Australian Bloodstock's Danceteria Django Freeman will be coming over from Germany to Robert Hickmott, as expected. Queensland Derby winner Mr Quickie is among the nominees, as is the Queensland Oaks winner Winning Ways, and All-Star Mile winner Mystic Journey. Chris Waller unsurprisingly has the most nominees with 23, including: Finche, Verry Elleegant and Youngstar. Hayes & Dabernig have nominated 22. Nominees for the Melbourne Cup should be released on August 29th. The race itself is only 90 days away. |
2017 Melbourne Cup winner Rekindling has been retired to stud. He didn't race for 18 months following that victory, due to a tendon injury. His only subsequent race was the Australian Cup earlier this year in which he finished last.
Last year's winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy (who also won in 2000 and 2016) is getting a statue built in his honour in his hometown of Streaky Bay. This was announced during his visit as an ambassador for the Melbourne Cup tour. You can see all tour dates here: https://www.flemington.com.au/melbo...bourne-cup-tour French import Azuro won the Listed 3200m Queensland Cup at Eagle Farm. That performance hasn't moved the bookies much though: he's still $101 in futures. Probably overs on ability given some tight tussles with Steel Prince ($31) last year and an encouraging record over the Cup distance: 2 wins and 1 placing (0.2L) from his 3 runs. Steel Prince though, of course, won a ballot exemption through winning the Andrew Ramsden. Speaking of, rumours went wild as the payment of prizemoney for the race was delayed. The money was held up waiting on swab results, which led to speculation of an overturning of places. The runner-up Surprise Baby was reported to have been best backed with bookmakers in the preceding weeks. It wasn't until late July that the swabs - and Steel Prince - were given the all-clear. Also late last month was the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, a Group 1 2400m at Ascot. Enable and Crystal Ocean fought out a huge battle, with the pair and 3rd placegetter Waldgeist putting quite a margin on the rest of the field: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJyfXL3ICKg. No chance of seeing the first two here, but a couple of the also-rans from Aidan O'Brien have nominated for the Cox Plate: Anthony Van Dyck, Magic Wand and Hunting Horn. The Goodwood Cup rounded out July's racing with Stradivarius completing his threepeat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APkb6wDmI5Y. Last year's Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter finished in 3rd position. No shame in that with the first three (Dee Ex Bee in 2nd) pulling well clear of the rest. After the race trainer Charlie Appleby declared that Cross Counter defending his 2018 Melbourne Cup was 'Plan A' and that they expected to be asked to carry 57 or 57.5kg. Also at Goodwood was the Gordon Stakes for 3 year olds, which was won the previous year by Cross Counter in record time. This year's winner was Nayef Road in a tight finish: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXmbo3jw7bE. Not sure we'll see any of these runners in Melbourne later this year. More Glorious Goodwood with the Queen's Plate Group 3 over 2400m. Desert Encounter took the win with Mirage Dancer a 2-length second. The latter is trained by Sir Michael Stoute, who was with Fiorente ahead of her being sold to Gai Waterhouse (only about 2 months before her 2012 Melbourne Cup 2nd placing). It was reported in the past couple of days that Mirage Dancer has now been sold to Australian interests and will be trained by Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young. The plan is to run in the Caulfield Cup ahead of the Melbourne Cup; he's qualified for both. The Cox Plate nomination he holds is a just-in-case. Finishing last in the 5-horse field was Prince of Arran who was eased in the last furlong to finish 14 lengths behind. Latrobe has won another race overseas, this time in the 2400m Group 3 Ballroan Stakes at Leopardstown: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psBWyC_xCE8. Not a hugely impressive win for a $1.90 favourite. Weights have been released for Europe's richest handicap, the Ebor Cup. Irish runners Communique and Salouen carry the two heaviest handicaps for the race on August 24th. 67 remain in the field. Among those also in the Melbourne Cup futures markets: Falcon Eight ($21), Latrobe ($21), A Prince of Arran ($26), Gold Mount ($26), Withhold ($34), Mustajeer ($51), Red Verdon ($51) and True Self ($51). The last three Ebor Cup winners have all made the Melbourne Cup final field: the best of these was 2016's second place finisher Heartbreak City. Magic Circle won't be making a return trip for this year's Cup. Finishing 16th last year, his colourful owner Marwan Koukash was popular in the press with his promise that if he won he'd receive the trophy wearing nothing but a tie and thong. |
This Saturday is the Ebor Handicap (Ebor being short for 'Eboracum', the Roman name for York). 4 of the last 5 winners have gone on to contest the Melbourne Cup. Recognising the links between the two events - and sweetening the £1mil prize - the Victoria Racing Club will pay for two all-expenses paid trips for Cup Week for winning connections.
The current favourite in the field (max of 22 runners) is King's Advice. He's a 5yo Frankel horse who's won 6 of his last 7 races - and 8 wins from his 10 total starts. Ahead of the 2011 Melbourne Cup his trainer Mark Johnston was quoted: "The Melbourne Cup is not seen in Europe as it is in Australia," he says bluntly. "That's not my fault. It's just a fact. I would be lying if I said the Melbourne Cup has anywhere near the same kudos in Europe it has over here. It's a huge big prize and a huge challenge to take a horse from one side of the world to the other and win it. But it's not the biggest race in the world. "It's not the most prestigious race. But it's certainly the most valuable. And this is my best chance to win it." His runners that year were Fox Hunt and Jukebox Jury who went on to finish 7th and 20th respectively. King's Advice is yet to qualify, given that he's yet to run outside of handicaps - but the top 3 finishers in the Ebor Cup will pass the first ballot clause. Withhold is on the second line of betting. The one-time favourite for the 2018 Melbourne Cup had to be withdrawn from that race after bleeding in the Geelong Cup. He's run once since then, taking out the Marsh Cup in July, a 3300m handicap. "It’s a big decision to go [to Melbourne] again, but you’d think he’s the perfect type for it." Raheen House is third favourite, announced today as being purchased by Australian Bloodstock. Raheen House holds some fame as once having beaten superstar mare Enable (back in April 2017 in Enable's second ever race). After the Ebor Handicap he'll come to Australia to contest both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. As will the other recent Australian Bloodstock purchase in the field, Mustajeer. Last week the Hunter-based syndicators were reported as believing that Mustajeer is their best Caulfield Cup chance and among their top three Melbourne Cup hopes. Sydney Cup winner Shraaoh and Torcedor headline the company's Melbourne Cup hopes in the TAB market at $26. Murrell rated Mustajeer ($51) ahead of the Chris Waller-trained Shraaoh, but: "If Torcedor shows up, none of them will get near him," he said. "He's by far the best, but he's an older horse and he's only just started his campaign, so his worry is, is he going to be fit enough?" Last year Torcedor recorded an elevated temperature as he was about to enter quarantine, ruling him out of an Australian trip. His first race since then was earlier this month, finishing 10 lengths back in a Listed German 2800m. The plan is for one more German race in mid-September and then straight to the Melbourne Cup. They'd want to see something in his next run though, surely... Ducking the Ebor will be Gold Mount. From his trainer Ian Williams: "It's a great shame we are going to miss the Sky Bet Ebor, but he was sent to me from Richard Gibson in Hong Kong with a view to getting him ready for the Melbourne Cup, and that's the challenge now. He's been given a nice weight, and he'll get out to Australia early, so he may run in the Caulfield Cup there first." In other racing news, Marmelo continues his good form with a win in the Prix Kergolay: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8Gd3hkddl4. He won that race in 2017 before finishing 9th in that year's Melbourne Cup. He was, of course, 2nd place last year after being overtaken late by Cross Counter. The two of them now share $17 favouritism in this year's futures markets with Ladbrokes. Apparently this will be his last run before heading to Melbourne once more. Third place in the Kergolay was Maky, an OTI runner whom we may see down here some time as well. Latrobe won another, this time the Group 3 2400m Ballyroan Stakes: https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1159555247624413184. "The main reason for coming here was that Lloyd and Nick Williams felt that it would be important to get a win under his belt this year and then we could make a plan for the second half of the year," Joseph O’Brien said. "He has options all over the place. He could go to Australia, but he has options in America as well. There are places like Japan and there are big races here as well. I’m not sure where exactly he’s going to go yet." It was subsequently reported that he'll next be contesting the Irish St Leger on September 15th, where he's also anticipated to meet Cross Counter. Another Williams chance, Master of Reality, finished 3rd in the St Leger Trial Stakes: https://youtu.be/4ftKx9Ym-z0. It wasn't a surprise for a horse by an O'Brien to do well in the race: they comprised the whole field! Joseph O'Brien had 4 of the 6 runners while his father Aidan had the remainder. Dad won bragging rights with Southern France while Joseph filled the rest of the podium with OTI's Downdraft and Master of Reality. Downdraft was reported as needing to do well to increase his official handicap rating ahead of the release of Melbourne Cup weights next month. |
Stradivarius has kept his winning run going in the Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes (3270m Group 2). A small field of 4 went around including Dee Ex Bee and Falcon Eight, who were among those at the top of Melbourne Cup futures ($26 and $31 respectively). Both runners have since been ruled out of The Cup after having bled following this race. Falcon Eight was left well adrift of the first three, who were all within 1.5L at the finish: though Stradivarius always looked comfortable as he defended his title from last year. Max Dynamite won this race in 2015 ahead of his 2nd placing in The Cup. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TFKXvv2WHE
Also at York was the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (2400m Group 2). None of the starters are currently in Melbourne Cup betting, though that may change tomorrow when the first Entry List is to be published. Logician and Constantinople cleared well out from the rest of the small field: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIZTohwNA-M. Logician is the favourite for the St Leger. It would be nice to see Constantinople here but his trainer Aidan O'Brien said: "We were very happy with Constantinople and we'll see how he comes out of it. He's a big cruiser and still a little bit weak and he'll be a better horse next year. Norway ran well and is another in the [St Leger] mix." Enable destroyed the competition in the Yorkshire Oaks but there's no chance that we'd see her here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0AfBuaq8H0. Off to the Arc to try and be the first three-time winner. The Ebor was the York race of most interest for Cup followers, with the handicap taken out by Australian Bloodstock-owned Mustajeer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEHQDVUEIrg. He's now an equal Melbourne Cup favourite with Cross Counter, Marmelo and Torcedor ($17 with Ladbrokes). Rounding out the top 3 - and also notching a qualifying run for the Cup - were Red Galileo (0.75L) and Desert Skyline (1.25L). Raheen House was the favourite but finish well back in 9th. One spot ahead was Prince of Arran, 3rd in last year's Melbourne Cup, but unloved here at $34. Max Dynamite, Withhold, Wells Farhh Go, King's Advice and Weekender were some names that had been bandied about but all fell well down the order. Race time was actually the 3rd fastest since 1986: 0.5s faster than Muntahaa last year and over 3s faster than Nakeeta the year before. Ziyad won the Grand Prix de Deauville (2500m G2): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Oi5jyWPTdo. This was the race that Tiberian won in 2017 ahead of a Top 10 Melbourne Cup finish later the same year. This race was markedly faster and Tiberian - who was part of the field once more - finished well back this time around. This edition actually saw a race record, nearly a second quicker than the next fastest time recorded. The winner Ziyad had also beaten Marmelo earlier on in his prep and is ineligible for the Arc: "He is gelded and so we almost certainly need to be on our travels with him and there are some nice international targets that could come into calculations." Melbourne would be nice.... Soft Light (the only 3yo in the race) was 2nd and gaining, and Nagano Gold came in 3rd. Marmelo's trainer has announced his plans: "I think the plan is to give him a couple of weeks off - then go out to Australia at the same time he did last year, and then go straight to the Melbourne Cup," Morrison said. "It seemed to work well last year. That doesn't necessarily mean it will again, but the horse is in good form. "We left him in the Irish St Leger as an option, but I don't think we will be going there unless there is a huge change of heart. If the race was in August then we might have gone there." Confirmed Melbourne Cup starter Steel Prince starts his campaign this weekend in the Heatherlie Stakes. He's the $4.40 favourite for the 1700m race, well short of his best, but his ballot exemption means his trainer can choose his program to best peak on Cup day, not having to worry about placings along the way. |
Entrants for the 2019 Melbourne Cup: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...cup-nominations
Entrants for the 2019 Caulfield Cup: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...cup-nominations |
Here are the weekend's results from Melbourne Cup nominees:
Here are the horses that trialled on Tuesday (various tracks):
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Melbourne Cup nominees racing over the next few days:
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Local results from Melbourne Cup nominees:
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A couple of foreign races of interest:
Later on tonight at Kempton Park it's the Sun Racing September Stakes, a Group 3 race over 2400m. In the field are Melbourne Cup nominees Mountain Hunter and Prince of Arran. Last year's Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution is the race favourite with Prince of Arran at $12 in the 12-strong field, and Mountain Hunter at $34. Tomorrow night at Longchamp it's the Group 3 Prix Gladiateur, with Haky contesting the 3100m Group 3. There was a bit of movement in Cup futures betting this week with Constantinople gaining a fair bit of interest. Both he and Cape of Good Hope were purchased by Lindsay Park clients and will now be trained by Hayes-Hayes-Dabernig. "There’s a bit of hype about this horse (Constantinople) but I want to get my hands on him and see how he is, but I think he’s a false favourite," David Hayes, said. "I bought Rostropovich for this year and these two I’ve bought, I hope they run well this year and the market says they will, but I’m more keen for the future. "This is a bonus this year." They're both expected to arrive in the first shipment of foreign horses. Interestingly David Hayes said their work at Werribee would be limited following all the injuries that occurred at the facility last season. Much of the interest is on account of the similarities between Constantinople this year and Cross Counter the last: born within a week of each other a year apart, their respective Cup preps are very similar. Cross Counter went into the Melbourne Cup without a warm-up with his last race the Voltigeur Stakes. Cross Counter carried 57kg and finished a 0.2L 2nd in a race run on Good-Firm in 2'28.34s. Constantinople carried the same weight on a Good track, a 1.75L 2nd behind the St Leger Stakes favourite Logician - in 2'27.91s. The race prior Cross Counter set a new record in the Gordon Stakes, carrying 57.5kg around in 2'31.39s. Constantinople carried 59kg and finished 2nd by 0.4L in 2'35.67s. Cross Counter snuck in another race (a 2L victory in the Woodford Reserve Handicap) between the Gordon Stakes and the next one they have in common: the King George V Stakes. Here Constantinople came 2nd finishing 0.4L back in 2'32.74s on Good-Soft. Cross Counter didn't finish as highly (4th 2.75L) carrying 0.5kg less in a much quicker race: 2'28.36s - though it was on a track that was Good-Firm. Constantinople: 8 starts for 2 wins and 5 placings. Cross Counter (at the same time): 7 starts for 4 wins and 2 placings. The benchmark handicap for horses of this age has also gone up 1kg this year. |
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Sun Racing September Stakes, a Group 3 race over 2400m I can't find a direct link, but you can watch the race on this page: https://www.racingtv.com/news/royal...ptember-success. It was a bunch finish with Prince of Arran across the line in 3rd (1.75L) and Mountain Hunter in 5th (2.25L). They both were ahead of last year's Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution (7th 2.75L) who was in his first race since 2018's Melbourne Cup. They all carried 59.5kg over the Synthetic surface. Longchamp it's the Group 3 Prix Gladiateur, with Haky contesting the 3100m Group 3. Called To The Bar was the odds-on favourite and triumphed accordingly, winning by 2 lengths easing. OTI Racing's Melbourne Cup nominee Haky certainly gave them something to chase though, leading the field for much of the race and by a large margin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RH_ep9VXlPg. He still finished in 2nd place, a further 2 lengths in front of Boulevard. According to OTI they anticipated him receiving 51.5kg though hope his strong showing here will bump up his handicap more - they reckon he'd need 53kg to be sure of making the field. The plan now is to have him on the first shipment of horses and look to qualify him locally (not to mention: deal with his poor first up record). Either the Herbert Power Stakes on October 12th or the Caulfield Cup on October 19th being the target. His previous race, his first at Group level, was a third placing 3.75L behind Marmelo in the 3000m Prix de Kergolay. Each of them carried 59kg and you'd anticipate them having different handicaps for the Cup. No fear of him getting the distance either: he's had 4 starts at 3000m or more for 1 win and 3 placings. It looks like he'll push the race along at a very genuine tempo if he makes the final field. Weights should be out tomorrow (per the Feature Race Conditions: Handicaps will be declared not later than TUESDAY 10 SEPTEMBER 2019; so technically they could come out earlier, but not likely). |
Weights are out for the 2019 Melbourne Cup: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...rne-cup-weights
Kew Gardens will be the topweight with 58kg - if he decides to contest the race, of course. If he doesn't, then weights will remain the same: rather than shift upwards as they have in some past runnings. Cross Counter has been awarded 57.5kg, 6.5kg greater than he carried to victory in last year's race. Placegetters Marmelo and Prince of Arran will carry the same weight that they did in 2018. Constantinople, this year's Cross Counter/Rekindling doppelganger was awarded 52.5kg. So it looks like Greg Carpenter hasn't done any further handicapping for these 3yo northern/4 yo southern types aside from the pre-announced 1kg bump in benchmark weights. The ballot exemption-winning horse Steel Prince will carry 53.5kg. A brief look shows a few that would be stoked with their handicap. Ispolini and Master of Reality both look well in. The first Order of Entry will be out this Friday. I'm not sure why they can't release that immediately... Maybe that gives some people who make an effort to determine eligible prizemoney winnings a brief trading advantage in Futures markets. First Acceptances are due by noon on October 1st. |
I had a look at who seems to have a good handicap, given their official rating. Of course the official handicapper may be of the belief they won't run at that rating over the 3200m, hence the lighter than anticipated weight.
Note that I couldn't find an official rating for a few horses. They were either Japanese, German, still a Maiden, too new, yet to race, or undetermined: BIZZWINKLE (NZ) DJANGO FREEMAN (GER) ENTENTE JUST THINKIN' LYS GRACIEUX (JPN) MEINER WUNSCH (JPN) MER DE GLACE (JPN) ONCE WERE LOST (IRE) RULE THE WORLD STELLAR IMPACT (JPN) TORCEDOR (IRE) TRUE SELF (IRE) For the others (which I think I've got right) see below. TLDR: Il Paradiso really shouldn't race again ahead of The Cup. Should be in the Top 24 when the Order of Entry comes out on Friday and has passed the first ballot clause. He was 1.35L behind Stradivarius in the 3270m Lonsdale Cup Stakes and more or less tied with Dee Ex Bee. Il Paradiso carried 7kg less than Stradivarius who would be on 59kg in The Cup.
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Melbourne Cup nominees racing locally over the next few days:
These are the nominated horses who trialled on Monday and Tuesday: AZURO (FR) CASCADIAN (GB) GREY LION (IRE) HEART OF GRACE (JPN) MUNTAHAA (IRE) RULE THE WORLD RUNAWAY SWEET THOMAS (GER) |
Long interview with handicapper Greg Carpenter regarding the weights for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups: https://audioboom.com/posts/7364736...sider-11-9-2019
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