Keep it Simple?
 

On a recent thread, a forumite asked a 'million' questions about how to improve his selection success? Armed with the 'bestest' database, "if I did this and tweaked that I'd have the Grail. The more complicated the better as that would put it out of reach for the average punter, so that's got to be a winner.....right?", or thoughts along those lines....lol

How simple can it be to find a winning system? I went on a search to find ONE filter to make SP $2.00 ~ $2.20 horses profitable without using ratings or anything complex, just the Race Class as headlined for every race, and try and keep the no. of selections to a min 10% of the original number.

The actual SR for these selections is 41.9% and returns a -9.75% POT. The theoretical SR is 47.6%.

The answer:

OPEN races! 300 bets 146 wins 48.7% SR and 4.22% POT. Max Outs 6. Max Bank risk 9.5%.

Test period 819 days. Sample selections 3,222.
Now in fairness to the database providers, of which I'm a subscriber, if it wasn't for the fact that I had the ability to analyse past results, I never could have come up with such a simple solution.

JMHO - but it gets tricky in real time picking on SP alone or indeed using SP as a filter anywhere.
Sounds like it would be easy but many many times they hover on the border and you dont know until its over.

In any case JMHO again - but slicing out a section of SP for your selections in any range is data back fitting in its finest.
may work for 800 days or another 2000 days and then not work for 10 years.

as i've said somewhere else i have reasonable data going back to 1992 and you would be surprised to see some methods like this work solid for 3-4 years and then drop and fade and never come back.

but the main thing about simple methods - mmm- not sure about that either -they win- yes - but are overbet because they are so simple that every one is on them.


opinions only - agreement not required.

Must agree. It is very difficult to pick by prices in the real world.
I enjoy RPs post as they are thought provoking. My current UK foray into laying longshots in jumps races came from an idea I read about but is now about five degrees of separation from the original.

SP range can be used when looking at hot pots, the uncertainty arises when it's 3/1 each of two, or similar.

You can pretty much glean which way it will end up if you look at fluctuations, betfair price, fixed odds. Mostly you'll be able to get it right from there.
Forget Tote pools, it's a raffle at best.

Spot On! CP.

That's why, I never bet without consultation to Oncourse fluctuations, Ratings consensus, Betfair WAP ( a far more reliable indicator ) in conjunction with Adv% tool and Fixed odds! In that order! When the stars are all aligned.....Bingo! And I'm a Lay bettor.

Now that IS more complex than the original theme of this thread, and outside the realm of most bots and everyday punters. But it's almost all freely available to anyone prepared to put in the time and be 'hands on'.

I prefer to trust my own judgment and price assessments, if I listened to the market I would miss many huge overlay winners - by huge I mean anywhere upwards of 300% overlays.