Brumby,

1. Identify horses that are going to be in the $8-$20 range.
2. Do my own analysis to come up with what I consider the realistic chances of each horse identified in part 1 is (This bit is the "trade secret" part!) and work out my "good bet price". eg. If my analysis gives horse a 10% chance then I would look for a price of at least $11 (allowing a 10% margin - this margin varies depending on pool size, etc)
3. Few minutes before race see if any horses seem likely to start with a TAB price above my good bet price - these are the ones to watch
4. If possible watch selected horses behind barriers and as they are loaded
5. If selected horses still above my bet price AND they look OK as they go into barriers then place bet when all horses are loaded (ie. last few seconds before jump)

Pre-post odds - I don't care about starting prices, unless a horse falls below $4, from outside that level.

The last thing i look at are % and $$$$.

In b/t about 6-8 things.

Good question.

If both horses are "overs" one can bet on both using an appropriate staking plan.

I now use different betting approaches to this problem.

If my main system selects a horse, i will only bet if its paying more than $4, excluding quality group 1 races, where horses like Northerly, Lonhro etc are involved. Or a horse has a superior speed rating for sprints.

For my new roughies method, I place bets independently from my other method.

So i may have 2 or 3 bets on a race.
1 main selection only
1-2 roughies - smaller stake.

Total stake will be such that regardless of which horse wins/places - I will make a good profit.

An important consideration when formulating any staking plan is if the selection method does not at least break even at level stakes then no staking plan will work in the longrun.

Brumby,

As far as the "value threshold" goes, in almost all cases I only focus on my top rated, second-top rated, or equal second-top rated horses for potential overlays. I can sometimes bet the three horses in a race but this only happens when I've confidently rated the public favourite quite unfavourably. These are usually good betting races for me. If I go much deeper than my top 3, at any time, the strike rate and profitability is prone to going out the window.

Agree with Big Pineapple (sorry Big Orange)

Even if a horse is 30/1 and looks to be double the price it should be, if it isn't in your top 3 picks - it probably ain't going to win.

I tipped County Tyrone for example on Saturday - it was 20/1 in the paper, started at $14. It was my third pick in the race, so it qualified.

Remember good odds doesn't equal value, unless the horse has a realistic chance of placing or winnning.

Most horses which are at long odds deserve to be - the key is to find the horses which DON'T DESERVE TO BE AT LONG ODDS.

Sometimes horses can be 20/1 to 30/1 in the market, when they really should be 10/1 or even as low as 8/1. Identifying these horses is the trick, whether you use Speed ratings or your "Top 6" criteria it doesn't matter as long as you can find these bets you're a happy punter.

Brumby - I basically bet on any horses that exceed my value criteria - as I mentioned I don't look at horses under about $8 but if there are 2 horses in the race that qualify I will bet on both of them (eg. if I rate 2 horses both at 10% and one is $12 and the other $13 then I will bet both). As for the argument that there is another horse in the race with a much better chance of winning - SO WHAT? Lets say I have 10 races with a 10% chance in each - on average I will only be on the winner in one of those races - but if it pays $12 then I will have a 20% profit on turnover on average.

Chief - I disagree with the "it must be in your top 3 picks" - how often does a horse not in your top 3 win? Probably quite often. The important thing is are the odds above the price it should be. If a horse is showing $20 but has a 1/15 chance of winning then it is a good bet - it will probably not win but as long as it wins more often than 1 in 20 then in the long run you will be ahead.

It probably happens quite often for you, but not for me.

If you have 3 picks and can't win 2/3 races -you should look for another hobbie.




[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-13 00:22 ]

Chief - my strike rate is about 10.5% and my average dividend is about $11.40 - good enough for me! :smile:

The absolute first must be fitness.

Forget market prices, barriers, jockeys, trainers, strike rates and everything else.

If a horse isn't fit it isn't worth risking your money on it.

[ This Message was edited by: Privateer on 2002-06-14 13:21 ]