Melbourne Cup 2015
 

I have posted our assessments for the 2015 Melbourne Cup

http://goo.gl/fKF4f6

There are a number of key principles to finding the winner of this race which include the ability to isolate the following:

R2W Winning Formula

1 New Personal Best (PB) earned in a recent run or last start
2 Had a recent Australian run
3 Form - win or close up run at their last start
4 Proven ability to run fast time over a distance
5 Abbreviated Autumn preparation
6 Market (only 3 winners longer than 16/1 last 30 years)

I couldn't work out which horses you were recommending. I assume GREEN and YELLOW/ORANGE and not RED ?

Hi UB,

Assuming a fair track, selections and indicative chances as per probability/price assessments. The Red is avoid, Orange some value, Green best value based on prices available at the time of publication.

1. Fame Game
2. Trip To Paris
3. Preferment
4. Our Ivanhowe

Bear in mind we expect Fame Game to continue to ease, Our Ivanhowe to firm.

Opposing Max Dynamite and Criterion.

Question
 

Hi all similar to mine(1-2-3-4) apart from ALMOONQITH,
Which needs to elevate up again to a new PB to win won in
Slow time at Geelong hope for natural improvement etc other 1-2-3 the same.

My question is do you take into account breeding, or is it in your product And data base as an adjunct & if it is how hard or easy is it for someone,
Like myself who is at the bottom of the learning curve re this part of racing,
To actually incorporate into a ratings & selection technique.

A brief explanation re the breeding is fine I have the rest thanks.

Cheers.

Hi garyf,

The normal standard breeding information exists such as Sire/Dam. The issue of whether and how you could/should incorporate breeding into your assessments is a challenging one. The issue is that for the most part it is unreliable. You only have to consider the amounts paid both high and low for horses to soon realise that its more often than not a lottery.

Personally we do consider breeding but only as a secondary factor and only in certain situations. Given any interpretations are largely subjective, we are only really ever only trying to get a guide on a horse when its stepping up to a new distance range and we are unsure as to whether it might get the trip. More often that not this question and answer is usually evident by the additional race sectional ratings data that we produce from our source that supply's our verified race and sectional times.

I can tell you that the major syndicates don't factor breeding as an important factor.

Thanks have the SIRE-DAM-G/SIRE of all horses in my data base,
Problem is how to use them as to me they are a name only.

So at the moment it is not an important part of R2W as you,
Have other means to determine situations that arise that's,
What I do now, however I am tinkering with this idea to see if,
It may or may not provide a means to add to what I already am doing.

Cheers.