Interesting statistics....!
 

Hi All,

Recently I purchased the data base from this site, and have spent quite some time doing various searches on it. There is one aspect of it that intrigues me somewhat, so I guess this post is aimed at other users of it. I realise that no one talks about their findings etc, but this wont be giving away that much.

No matter what searches you do, just about all of them have a much better result if you put in....days since last race less than 8. (compared to any other number of days).

The funny thing is though, if you run a search on the total number of winners over the duration of this data base, that won, that had qualified under the days break of less than 8; you get 3,467 winners. Then if you say run a search on horses who won who had 8 to 14 days break from their previous start you get 14,797. 15 to 21 days you get 8,392 and more than 21 days you get 9,046.

What I am getting at here is the fact that the best results come from the smallest quantity of this days since parameter.

Very interesting indeed....!

I am sure someone will have some reasons for this.

At this point following my lengthy analysis' of searches performed on my data base (which I am totally enjoying, I must say), I have come up with a number of systems. Some seem to interlock into other systems, but I did decide to commence my bets from such on last saturday. I had 8 bets for 4 winners and a POT of around 26%, so here's hoping this continues.

Apart from all this I have always maintained that horses are creatures of habit. I happened to back Teasing on saturday as I entered it into my bb following its win 2 starts prior, very good finishing sectionals. It then run in the Ramournie and drew wide, got back, run home well to be beaten just over a length. So I followed up on it. Last preparation this horse won 3rd and 5th up,.....this preparation, exactly the same thing. I am not saying this happens all the time, but I see it soo often.

Paul

I will agree here, i have run many tests on the DB and found the one thing that improves selections is runners less than 8 days.

The thing i never understood about the days since last run is that if it is such a key factor in racing why would trainers not give horses some hard training 7 days before they are due to race that would simulate a race.

Instant mini system ?

Last start winner
Last start less than 8 days

3 qualifiers for Wed 5 Aug
R'hill - r5 #4
Sand - r7 #5
Belm - r6 #5

cheers

Hint: look for horses who have backed up and been successful before.
Geldings in general back up better.

And...forget 2yo's and 3yo's.

Hi CP,

Your saying a winner who backs up within 7 days, and has did that before and won..?

Your data base doesnt pick up on this though, does it..?

Paul

You can run a test and then use a blackbook service to note the runners.

!!
 

Very interesting CP, I never thought of using your data base in that respect. You could say work on the dates 1st July 2008 to end of March 2009 (where your data base is currently up to) and search for horses that won with a weeks back up from a last start win. And of course watch for them when they come back this spring.

I just run a quick search for a looksee, and a couple of horses that jumped up were Something Anything, and All Silent, very good horses...!

Interesting,

Paul

What where the number of starters in each of the above groups or what was the winning % of each group? Knowing that would make the number of winners from each group more meaningful and comparable. Thanks.

For what its worth
Todays runners that had their last start within 8 days :
A. Last start winners result : 0 wins out of 3
B. Fin. within 5 lgths of winner last start - 12 selections for 5 wins and return of $23.60 (Unitab)
C. Fin. worse than 5 lgths behind winner last start - 9 selections for 1 winner which paid $22.80 (Unitab)

What would it do to the stats if you took out all those that were either 2nd up or third up in their campaigns? So the horse must be racing again within 8 days of its last start but must be having atleast its 3rd or 4th run in this time