A Mathetically proven way to get a good Value bet
 

A mathematical certainity of getting a good value bet and making a long term profit.

This works and it works well.

Bet for a place any horse that is over $3 and the place is showing at least 60% of the win value .

For example The horse is showing $4 for the win and you can get $2.50.
$2.5/$4 = 62.5%

Bets :1107 (Over 16 months)
Return : 1309
Placings : 677

This is something worth automating and just leaving to run against betfair where the odds are fixed. It won't work against the TAB as the prices can change after the race starts and placing prices tend to tumble if a large bet is placed on them.

If you could clear $100 a bet you would easily be making $1200 a month which is nice pocket money ... Can be used on any race anywhere in the world as well so you could be making at least 3 times this amount a month ( roughly $43K a year )

I say good luck to anyone who wants to do it as If you automate it and it gets a bug at $100 a bet you would not be too happy if you didn't notice it for a few hours ....

I used to do this manually and made a killing with it but it required me to sit in front of the computer which is not something I can do all the time.

Good Luck

wesmip1

Sorry to break this to you, but though your idea has merit it has been well and truly explored and documented since at least the 80s.

And intrepid robots are undoubtedly using the techniques on Betfair around the clock.

Anyone interested in learning more should search both here and google for the keywords:

Harville Ziemba

I think this proves that wesmip1 has been doing it and succeeding.

I'm am currently doing something much different, but similar in many ways with astounding success.
I never thought that something so simple in practice could be so easy to achieve in realtime.

The fact of the matter is, that there is still so much real mug money around on Betfair, that it is possible to lay horses up to 50% worse than bookies odds and bet on horses 50%+ better prices than bookies and TAB odds.
I keep adjusting the prices up and down, with more and more rake, and the bets just keep getting matched. ;)

And here's the cream on the cake, I've often got bets matched which were 50% better than bookies odds and lays matched 50% worse than bookies odds, all on the same horse.

That's no risk betting - thanks Mark :D

Yes jfc your talking of the old "Dr Z system" I think. The basis of this system started with research on US tracks in the 70's from memory. Some modification of their rules may still work but as you say the cat is well and truely out of the bag.

Pixie

I know its been around for ages ... but as Chrome Prince said .. there are a lot of mugs and its not too hard to get it... Your not going to get it every race but you are going to get it enough to make a profit.

Just to proive this can be done :

Today :

Eagle Farm Race 2: Number 9
You could have got the place for $1.90.

This isn't quite 60% but you got the place ...

and another won was Gosford Race 6 - Number 8
I got 2.80.

Good Luck.

It doesn't matter how old the method is, or even how bad it went in the past, if you can now secure the right odds, then everything is up for review.

Even though the cat might be out of the bag, there are punters that don't know a cat from a rat ;)

For example, the old maxim that you can't make a profit from backing every favourite, just went out the door. I'm not making a profit on every race, but I'm certainly making a profit backing every favourite (even though I'm laying them as well).

I fully agree.

There's a much more recent research paper I've read that modified the "Dr Z system" but it still struggled to make a profit. Was written in the US about 4 years ago.

So long as I can keep smelling the rats...

Pixie

So Chrome, you've entered the realms of being a "dirty trader".
Good luck to you.

Good on you chrome, wish i had the time to give it ago might have to take 3 months off to try it full time.