what type of races do you bet in?
 

my main bets are in open hcps with no age or sex restrictions..no group ones but group two and threes ok..it has changed my betting for the better
... i picked up that rule from a oz book ...wont say the title or author [copyright?] and also could be against forum rules..when i stray from those races [very rarely] any other races all starters must have a minimum of 15 starts ..that sort of separates the "wheat from the chaff".. also i only bet saturdays and public holidays..melb. and syd. only....your rules??..the old guy.

I am the opposite of you. I bet in almost every race 24/7, 365 days a year.
I am a high turnover low profit margin type of punter.

Each person can find angles to do well on the punt. Its all about finding what works for you.

Nothing wrong with finding what suits you, in my old days i would only bet Open and above races with no restrictions age, sex plus i would only bet in races 1600m and longer.

I'm only really in it to try and find some winning system type bets where I can set a bot and forget about it. That was my dream, set up the bots and rake in the money while lazing on a beach somewhere...lol. To date (10 years) I have not found a winning automatic system and am nearly thinking of pulling up stumps.

The only way I made any money was through trading on Betfair which supported my losing on the bot systems. I haven't traded for a long time because every time I try now I can't win.

Ocho,

Here is a late Christmas for you. Can be automated easily. I do not follow this system as it doesn't meet my strict parameters but it works.

1. 5 mins before a race record the Bet price and lay price on betfair for every horse.
2. 10 seconds before the race compare the current prices to those prices.
3. If the prices have decreases for the bet price (lower price) then put in a betfair SP bet to only be matched at a minimum price of the higher amount of the current lay price or the lay price at 5 mins to go.

Move to next race. Most of the profit comes from AU, GB and US racing.

Thanks for the late Christmas present however I can't unwrap it...lol. Are we backing or laying? I think you're saying to back at the higher (lay) price if the prices goes down (steam in)? Therefore is this an in-play system as the bet wouldn't be matched prior to the race? And is that for every horse in the race where the price goes down? An example would be good.

You are watching the pre-race fluctuations to find the right price. you then back the horse at a better price. It won't always get matched but when it does you will have value and make money long term.

The bet cancels at In play if it is not matched. 10 secs before the race starts gives you ample time for the odds to move up to your price.

As an example:

Lets say horse A 5 mins before the jump is showing the following odds on betfair - 3.20/3.50

We note down these prices and wait.

At 10 seconds to the jump we recheck the prices and they are now 3.10/3.30.

We note that it is a steamer (price dropped) so we put in a bet to back the horse at the higher of the two lay prices which were 3.50 and 3.30. So we put in a back at a minimum price of $3.50 and if not matched at betfair SP the bet is canceled. If however we have a price of 3.50 or higher then we have just picked up some seriously good value on a horse which was moments ago priced at 3.10/3.30.

Here is another example:
Horse A is priced at 4.00 /4.10 at 5 mins to go. Note the prices.
At 10 seconds to go the horse is now priced at 3.90/4.20.
This is a steamer as the lower price has decreased from 4.00 to 3.90. The two lay prices were 4.10 and 4.20 so we place a bet to back the horse at 4.20 or higher.

Its based on the assumption that the current price 10 seconds to go is pretty close to the right price and that the betfair algorithmn doesn't always match perfectly for the betfair SP and it can move off the right price.

If you do all horses regardless of price it makes about 600 units a year. If you restrict to favourites to reduce the run of outs it makes about 30 units a year.

Improvements I have not looked at include setting a minimum value % between the current price and the price you are backing for. Maybe including some sort of form and or other odds providers in the analysis, percentage of movement, etc.

There are lots of tweaks but the strike rate does not suit me. It can be as low as 11% for all horses and 30%+ for $5 and under.

Hope that explained it clearly.

Thanks for that detailed explanation UB. My bot doesn't have those type of settings (to back at the 5 minute lay price for example) but I'll try backing if the price goes down by say 5% from the 5 minute prices and then to place a bet 5 ticks above the current price on all horses.

I'm trying in simulation mode as I've tried backing and laying steamers and backing and laying drifters (at their current prices) with no success.