Some Gems on Here
 

Why is it that most punters try to be safe when they're gambling?

I do believe longshots win when it's their turn, the problem is that most cannot stand the run of outs, it's different to looking at a spreadsheet when done in real time. And secondly your bet will reduce the odds, you need to get set at the correct price.

Take note that in most city races there's several trainers in each race with fair dinkum certainties.

When you discover a winning formulae it's too late ..... Somehow the market has beaten you to it?

How do you know what's overs and what's unders?

I'm 100% certain that gambling on the horses is psychological and most punters are lemmings.

I have only been able to find maybe 2 systems on here that's stood the test of time but there's plenty of wise observations made.

I'm guilty of all of the above BTW. :)

Why not be safe? I think most gamblers are not safe. It all depends on your definition of safe. In this case I think you are using safe as a high strike rate. I think the problem with most gamblers is they are too risky. To me even 95% strike rate is not safe.

Gamblers on horses for mine seem to try and include as many safety factors as possible, won at track, senior jockey, trial form, good barrier, one of the favs with the bookies, and so on. The more of these safe filters you employ the more certain you are to have a loss between 15% and 20%. They're no chance of winning.

You may not able to use that successfully. Others can make it work but they think differently to the way you would and that's ok. There are thousands of ways to make money on the horses. Identifying the chances based on "safety factors" is one of the main ways I make a profit.

As I said most people are not safe enough and do not include enough safety factors.

One of the difficulties is understanding how to back test those factors. As I have said before 99% of people can't do that properly and therefore adding safety factors is just extra back fitting and that does not work.

Horse racing betting systems can and do win.

An issue operating a quality betting system in practice is that many punters will simply not wager on the right betting system selections, and will be scared off by odds. "It can't win."

Yet I've used one very simple betting system over the years that has its bread and butter based on horses winning at double figure odds.

I hope to post reasonably regularly some selections from betting systems that I am working on/trialing. The rules for some of these systems will be published in "Punt to Win."

I posted these selections a few days ago, and am quite happy with the results.

Caulfield:

R2/1 $9.00 2nd. by a nose
2/4 1st. $5.50
6/5 1st. $2.80
7/2 unpl. $9.00

Randwick:

4/4 $4.40 2nd. by a half head
4/7 3rd. $2.50
7/13 unpl. $9.00
8/7 unpl. $13.00

Doomben:

2/11 $9.00 2nd.

I'm not quite sure where you're coming from UB, but I think we have a different interpretation of "safe". I haven't been able to find any success with horses priced 50/1 and over, it seems that these roughies don't win enough. I also haven't bothered with odds on, it seems that these shorties are the conveyances that offer the best return though.

I interpret "safe" (or safety factors) as exposed form that has stood the test of time to produce winners, top jockeys, decent barriers, highly rated, fit etc, etc. My targets are those horses that do have a decent chance in the race (using a constant price filter range) but lose their appeal to the masses because there's a negative that flies off the form guide and hits you right in the eyes, for example going up in class, another horse in the race has such a massive weight advantage over yours that it cannot possibly be overlooked (therefore your horse is given no chance on weights), disappointing last run, barrier ..... I'm looking to be overcompensated. I believe in the old adage, if you don't learn from history then you're condemned to repeat it. I believe that generation after generation make the same blunders as their previous generation, and I believe that there's great value to be had by taking a stance against popular filters.

Some of the outcomes from my research is unbelievable (proof that human nature can take only so much!!!) ..... Testing a single form line at a time in a decent and logical system sees the S/R and LOT gradually diminish as expected, and in unison as the form inputted worsens incrementally, then ..... WHAM!!!!! it hits a point where it falls right off the cliff, lock stock and barrel. There's your value, right there. There's human nature.

It doesn't have to be poor form, it can be going up in class with good form, but where history suggests the horse may finally be out of it's league. Even tho' an old adage suggests that winners keep winning, and one would expect punters to be on board, there's plenty of evidence, and consistent evidence, to suggest that in certain types of races these horses are dismissed by the majority of punters .... there's your value.

Then there's just plain crap form and mostly they don't win. But there's a point where a line in the sand has been drawn and the crap form can produce a reversal and produce a winner ..... I've found "crap" form under certain conditions produces the most consistent S/R of all the systems I've got and looked at over the years (Amazeballs). It's like the trainer is giving it one last chance this time in.

Almost finding it impossible to put in writing what I do, but I've tried. As UselessBettor said, there's thousands of ways to win, but do they stand the test of time. If generation after generation make the same mistakes that the previous generation made (which I strongly believe), then it makes sense to bet against them?!, not in a random way, but more or less concentrate on what turns punters off and get your value there.

Post moderated. Criticising moderation is not acceptable. Account suspended 2 weeks. Moderator.

UselessBettor, my post isn't particularly well explained.

I'm looking for what turns punters off .....

Afraid you are right there Topsy. I tried to make sense of if but failed.
Sometimes we know exactly what we do and mean but can't put it into words, and the meaning is lost.

At least you doing OK and that's what matters, good luck with your project.

I think class is still the most misunderstood form of all, sure we have bench mark class ratings but they are just another form, back in the 90s i adapted my own version of weight ratings that did pretty good, i think most other form factors are easy to understand but class still holds some mystery.