OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

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- Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)

- - Staking Plea (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=12974)

Quote:

Originally Posted by KennyVictor

That's it!!! I'm finished with Mad Gambler. We've poured our hearts and souls into this thread. 9 pages of pure gold giving him at least 3 answers to choose from plus medical advice, share investment advice and bomb shelter tips. Do we get a thank you?

Don't hold your breath KV!
Wasn't he the one, who so couteously, and gently requested help with Excel?

premonition? 15 years ago

Quote:

Originally Posted by crash

Water in the house pipes even though they are cut off. Water in the hot water tank if you know how to access that lot. Keep filling the bath until the water is gone [suddenly]. 1 drop of bleach per litre and you can store it for a hell of a long time [in bleach cleaned containers]. Forget food when it hits the head-lines. It will be too late to get any.

The supermarket in Caratha was empty days ago and the hurricane hasn't even hit yet. Imagine a crisis involving a highly contagious killer flu [?] Emergency workers with Tamiflu tablets saving aust.[?] They won't work and nor will anyone [work].

We really should do what NZ has done and advise people to stock up NOW. However the economy there has stopped and is now officially in recession. Perhaps we [our Government] don't want to worry anyone here into stopping their spending like there is no tomorrow. Our economy needs us. 'She'll be right"! :-)

Just came across that, strange! but he didn't forsee the toilet paper frenzy!

expectations on winning or losing

runs = log(n) / log(p)
n is number of races
p is either your winning or losing probability
runs is what you expect on a good day

Hi Partypooper,

That is eerie. Crash was ahead of his time!

TTA

Try this approach. It can work well compared to standard level staking.

RULES
1/ Bet 1% of bank

2/ Bet 1% of new balance of bank (up or down) after every 6th bet

Theory of idea.
Most punters can hit 1 or 2 winners every 6 bets.
Maybe none in those 6 bets.

The idea is to capitalise on a good run & minimise the damage to bank, on a bad run.

This approach gives the punter much more betting confidence because it has a "What If" plan built to it.

Cheers.

The problem, as I see it, is that we're no longer up against our friendly local bookie who was happy to adjust the odds for his 'friends' and 'slip' them on a newbie.
Now we're up against the corporates who have adopted the Woolworths/Coles/Aldi approach ..... now it's all about "turnover" with a "service charge". On Favourites (for example) you can expect this 'charge' to be 12%. They aren't betting you, they're charging you for their service.

Take a fairly standard race, 1200 - 1600, Fav. @ $2.50, WSR = 34.99% (sample 5,711 races) ....... but you need $2.85 just to break even (over time).

The corp. doesn't care which horse wins. To beat the 'odds' you have to do better than the considered opinion of all hands and the cook from those who use AI to those who use a pin to make their predictions .... and do it consistently. All the staking systems can do is slow the rate of your losses.
Have a nice day :-)

Bhags, that is a very interesting concept.

DEM, I agree but what throws a spanner in the works is the deals: i.e. bet returns , boosted odds etc. there is a $ for the astute!

This works a treat when the right winners come along because punting has hot & cold runs.

1/200th Staking Plan
Bet 0.5% of your current bank. (1/200th)
After every 5th bet, adjust your bet to 0.5% of your current remaining bank.

That means the bet stays the same for 5 bets.
Then Bet 1/200th (0.5%) of remaining
balance , up or down.