Heres a strategy that might be useful to someone because it targets those races where there is a short-priced favourite that will probably bolt in - races usually best avoided.

It is designed to jag juicy placegetters, especially chasing those situations where a placegetter pays more than the winner. There are lots of such occasions and they really bug me. I succesfully back the winner and get a $3.10 return but one of the placegetters pays $6.20, twice the price at a placegetters chances. There are plenty of cases where the winner pays $1.30 and a placegetter pays $3.50+.

I've noticed that such situations often involve a placegetter from the opposite end of the field (in weight) to the winner. That is, if the topweight wins at a low price, the big placegetter will come from the bottom of the field. Or, less commonly, vice versa. Results like 1,2,12 or 1, 3, 9 or 10, 8, 2 are common and the odd number out will be a good priced placegetter, often a better price for the place than the winner paid.

I add to this the observation that in a high proportion of races the success of one of the first three finishers, especially the long-priced placegetter that no one tipped, can be attributed to a nice run from a good barrier, inside or out.

So this method is based on inside and outside barriers from the top or bottom of the field.

The horses to be considered are running in either the first three inside barriers or the last three outside barriers and are in the top four numbers in the field (TAB 1-4) or the bottom four of the field.

Success depends upon determining which are topweight races and which are bottomweight races. We use two devices to determine this: 1. the TAB number of the favourite and 2. any decent tipster or tipster poll.

If, for example, we have #3 as favourite and the tipsters have 2,3 and 4 as their tips in a field of 12, we call this a topweight race. The expectation is that the winner will come from the top of the list.

If however the favourite is #11 and the tipsters have 8, 11, 13 then we call this a bottomweight race.

Avoid races where there is not a clear differentiation.

Target races with short-priced favourites that will probably win but are not worth backing.

Now, in bottomweight races back any runner TAB 1-4 in any of the six nominated barriers, three inside gates and three outside. In topweight races do the same but start from the bottom of the list and back any in the nominated barriers.

That is, in races where the expectation is that the winner will come from the top of the list, seek your placegetter at the bottom of the list. And vice versa.

Constructive comments welcome.

Hermes