For those interested, this system [a stats. proofed version impossible to analyze or backfit] with it's selections shall return under another thread.

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-04-13 06:34 ]

Looks like a good idea Crash. Good luck.

Ran it for Sat Metro 1991 - 2003

Strike Rate 26.2%
Loss .......-5.3%

:sad:

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-04-13 06:11 ]

I wish you luck.

YR ... SR ...... LOT

92 ... 28.1 ... +2.0%
93 ... 29.1 ... +2.8%
94 ... 26.3 ... -2.4%
95 ... 26.0 ... -1.4%
96 ... 21.9 ... -19.9%
97 ... 25.7 ... -9.0%
98 ... 27.6 ... -1.6%
99 ... 24.6 ... -15.6%
00 ... 26.2 ... -4.0%
01 ... 27.2 ... -5.3%
02 ... 25.7 ... -7.4%
03 ... 26.1 ... -3.9%

I hope you find your "streak". Even if you shorten up your criteria you're on a loser ... no disrespect intended ...just a statement of facts.

Just a sugestion,
maybe delete any qualifyer that is less than $4.50 in the prepost market.
The SR is there ,so value needs to be targeted.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-04-13 06:12 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-04-13 06:15 ]

This gives a Strike rate of 14.9% and LOT of -10.7% over 13 yrs.

If you adjust to Barrier <=6 and SP <=$4.50
then you get SR 32.3% and LOT -5.7%

In this latter case yr largely dealing with favourites, the first case (because of the $4.50 - $9.00 price bracket) is probably excluding many shorty winners.

What it does demonstrate is that you can't get rid of the LOT by playing with the acceptable SP because of the inverse ratio between SR and return.

rgds

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-04-13 06:16 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-04-13 06:18 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-04-13 06:20 ]

[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-05-06 12:33 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-04-13 06:21 ]

Crash, no I don't know who she is, all I know is I see interesting numbers posted by a "Felicity", with this ability to time warp 12 years.
Well, good !, if there is a tool/dastabase, or person, that can do this, then I am suggesting maybe to look at the same statistics from varying angles.

Crash,

I hope you don't think I'm trying to undermine your system, but I think I should point out that McCarthys Bar didn't actually win. It was Rathlin which paid $17.20 in that race.

I certainly think there is plenty of merit in your idea. If you don't mind, I have a small suggestion. Perhaps, you could make the horse a 'special' and double your bet if it had it's last start in the last NINE days. There was one yesterday - Starcraft. :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-04-13 06:26 ]

Hi Felicity,
The price you used of $4.5-9.00 ,was that the Price Predictors or newspaper pre-post, there will be a big difference because newspaper figures are at approx 155% to market & Price predictor is factory set at 100% unless it is adjusted to 155% also to reflect something similar to newspapers.

Sorry Felicity,
I just re-read your post ,you have clearly stated SP prices.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-04-13 06:27 ]

In the data run I used published SP's for BOTH limits. Sorry 'bout that.

I don't use PP (or anybody elses) software, it's not good enough. I write my own.

I get very tired of people like "crash" who defend "their" way to the death using abuse while keeping their eyes and mind closed to anything and everything that might help them.

Grow up, sonny.

Use successful punters like me to help you refine what you're doing.

I take ideas from the forum and test them. Most (like the magazine systems) fail, those that have a grain of sense I may eventually use, but most go into the bin.

For example..... why use price filters at all ???

Don't you trust yr system/selection method and need reassurance that you're on the right track ??

Prices normally contain an expression of all the elements that are generally used. If your method works then price shouldn't enter into its determinations, otherwise you're using someone elses methods in conjunction with your own and hence will get skewed results.

Oh BTW, crash darling, my silly stats calculations gave ME Rathlin yesterday at $17.20. 5 winners at Caulfield, 4 winners at Randwick, and 6 at Eagle Farm.

F.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-04-13 06:09 ]

Quite right, my man. Please take it that all future posts are not intended for your eyes and you should ignore them.

Oh, BTW it's "perceived" (I before E except after C).

Love,

F. :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-04-11 16:27 ]

Notwithstanding the underlying importance of background figures and statistics...I wish that I followed Crash's initial posting cos I could have sure done with some winners yesterday LOL!

Felicity, Crash, I'm your average Joe punter that enjoys the banter and the chat and of course the odd tip (esp winning punt)that one can derive from the PP forum. I'm afraid that I lack the knowledge and background when it comes to number crunching and statistics so I ride (use?) the knowledge of Forum's esteemed contributors like yourselves, William, XPT, Mr J, Sportsnut et al...

I reckon there are hundreds like me who enjoy the humour, information and interesting stories that originate from your posts...I guess that is why it was disappointing for me to note the negative and personal content of some of the reponses in this topic...

Crash, you are right when you say every system has its highs and lows and I hope to (for once in my life) ride on your wave to the top...and even some of the way down (hehe!)...honestly, any bit of helpful info for us 'blow ins' is great.

Felicity, I was impressed by the detail and figures that you provided at short notice-it is always useful to test systems from a statistical and historical perspective...if Rathlin was a selection from your system then I would love it if you posted some picks that I could use (but obviously its up to you) to keep the missus off my back or perhaps my wife is right when she says I need to get a life...again I reiterate losing bets aside I thoroughly enjoy reading, assessing and contributing to this forum and I trust that it does not deteriorate into a forum for personal attacks and vitriole...the best of luck and again, much appreciation for your valuable contributions...keep those winners coming!

I'm with you in all you say, Desi. Anybody can ignore a post, method, or whatever that they don't agree with. No need to get on the proverbial high horse. I for one am like yourself --- enjoy the banter, and especially the odd insight that can be gleaned from these pages. Thanks to all contributors for the latter.

[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-04-11 18:33 ]

So do I - does that make me better than everyone else? No.



What a response!
Although I disagree with it often, Crash has every right to defend to the death his way of thinking, as do you. I have more respect for someone who defends what they believe in, than someone who is along for the ride.



Guess we'll have to take your word for it :roll:



Ridiculous statement - absolutely absurd.
Sorry, but price is one of my main filters and any punter should be acutely aware of value.



Guess we take your word for it again!
One new bird does not a Spring make - forgive the pun. :lol:

_________________
"The man who can correctly assess Class can have all the money he wants and he only needs a dollar to start". - Pittsburg Phil

[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-04-11 12:19 ]

Yeah, I'm with Desi. I don't like all this negative stuff going on here either.

Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight!! :lol:

Come on you guys,give Felicity a break!!!This lady has given up her own free time to provide statistical data(some asked for some not)hy are you all on her case?Is your male ego dented because a female knows a hell of a lot about the art of the punt?It's blatantly obvious that this lady knows what she is on about,and if she says she selectedthose winners,I believe her.It is your own choice to post systems,tips etc.Some people do,others dont.Isn't it a bonus to have someone to run it thru 12 years of data BEFORE you do your hard earned on something that may not be worth a cracker?
Felicity,I'm with you sweetheart,please don't go away..................

P.S.
I am NOT a female(at least I wasn't last time I looked!)

PPS
Felicity,my heart is now RED I'll have to think about changing my name!!!

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-04-13 06:07 ]

Going back 12 years ain't going to help me back a winner next week, is it? so i could n't give careless what stats say, THE NEXT RACE, the one after that then the one after that, thats what matters, not some fish 'n'chip paper from yesteryear.

[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-04-11 16:30 ]

Well, didn’t you all get your collective gonads in a knot, and talk about thin skinned. Reminds me of my last husband who split his prepuce on our honeymoon ……….. but that’s another story.

The following is intended to make you think ……….. no correspondence will be entered into.

OK ……. let’s start from Square One.

Now I’m going to use the general thrust of the “crash” system as an example … NOT to ridicule him, just to show you the drawbacks of this sort of idea that pops up from time to time.

We’ll look at the “place total of last 4 starts to be less than 9” first.

What’s wrong with this ?

In general, nothing. However, what it does is to exclude horses that have had a bad run in the last 4. Yes, occasionally they do get boxed in, or jump awkwardly, jock drops his whip etc etc. Consider a formline that reads 1 1 0 1 …… the horse gets excluded on the basis of the Rule of 9 whereas a horse that has 1 2 3 3 is included, and in any event the 0 may well represent being beaten 1 len in a blanket finish.

Why not give the horse the benefit of the doubt and let it have one bad run in 4 ………. so why not use Best 3 of Last 4 places less than, say, 6 or 7 or 8 ??????

Why use Place at all ????

First is of course 0.0 Beaten Distance but 2nd is anywhere from 0.1 len to 10 len and 3rd has an even greater range. Place is a trap for young players.

I recommend you use Beaten Distance. This way you pick up a horse with a formline that reads 4836 where it hasn’t been further than 0.5 len from the winner on any occasion.

Look at the stats (yes I know you hate them) for days since last start (and how the distance the horse ran at its last start affects the results), change of distance, runs from a spell, where has it been racing and so on and on and on and on

But please, please, please don’t spend your time and money looking for or betting on a “system” that is coincidence dependant.

Someone remarked that even though the stats are against them they would look for and ride a winning streak.

What is a “streak” …3, 4, 5, or more wins in succession ? How do you know when the streak has started …. after 2 wins (?) so you start betting and find out that it has stopped after 3 wins, and you’re down the tube again ……….. if anyone knows a way to tell when a run of heads (in coin tossing) will start OR stop then let me know and I’ll pay handsomely.

Using SP as a “system” filter ……….. go for your life and you’ll miss yesterdays nice one and today’s “Painted Pure” at $20.50, and Romantic Springs at $10.90 … both my top rated horses. Sure, decide for yourself (on the basis of value) if you want to bet at the price, but don’t use it built into your method.

Anyway, time for me to trot off to give the “fiscal fiend” his 4 hours of mainframe magic. As I said ……….. think, and don’t get upset .... it's only money.

F.

[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-04-11 18:32 ]

O.K. perhaps I was a bit harsh.

Happy Easter to all.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-04-13 06:04 ]

PREPUCE

1/ The Foreskin

2/ A similar fold of skin at the tip of the clitoris.

Hope this helps :lol:

hi everyone
i'm in the middle here i like systems and also statistical info don't they really go hand in hand????????
do systems follow or look for certain statistical information to be followed onto the next horse??????????
and does statistical information when collected together ( form rules ) that point towards the next future winner???????????
confused
cya