Learning to Bet like a Pro
 

THE MAIN REASON AS TO WHY MOST PUNTERS LOSE


Ratings2Win Educational Article

Statistics will reveal that the majority of punters (somewhere between 95 - 98%) lose on a long term basis. There are a multitude of reasons that this occurs and you will hear different theory's that describe what the Number 1 major cause is.

To me it revolves around issues such as poor money management, staking, and the basic failure to understand and accept the realities in regards to betting for profit. Below we will attempt to summarise these issues.

Poor Money Management

I'm going to state the obvious:

Don't bet more than you afford to lose; and
Determine the size of your betting bank in real dollars that you have set aside, and then using a disciplined approach stake your bets intelligently and in a consistent manner.

Staking

The principle objective of betting for profit is to maximise the amount of profit in real dollars whilst protecting your bank within a predetermined risk threshold you are comfortable with.
Doing the above will help you balance the relationship between profit and risk.

Bet Size

Getting your bet size right is critical to realising the principal objective of betting for profit.
If you bet too small then you are costing yourself profit; and
If you bet too big then you expose yourself to the inevitable likelihood that your expected losing runs will result in much bigger drawdown's of your betting bank relative to your risk threshold that could in turn wipe out your betting bank.

Optimal Bet Size

This depends on three well known but key factors:

The horse's probability profile (strike rate);
Your assumed betting edge over the marketplace; and
Your personal risk threshold (the percentage of your betting bank that you are willing to lose during normal long term betting cycles.

Realities of betting to profit

Assuming you get your money management and staking right you still have to be able to learn to understand and/or overcome other key factors that will determine your betting success.

These can be summarised as knowing and having an understanding of:

Winning and losing cycles (the psychological effect these can have on you and how understanding standard deviation will provide you with the knowledge of how much your results can and will fluctuate over different sample bet ranges (e.g. 100, 500 bets);
How your strike rate determines how volatile your results will be;
Why you need to have a realistic expectation of what each of your bets winning chances are (to achieve this you need access to accurate probability assessments for example the R2W IR ratings);
That you should only bet when you are getting value (to achieve this you need access to accurate probability assessments for example the R2W IR ratings);
That you should make an effort to obtain better prices about your selections (see our article titled Obtaining better prices about your selections);
How to measure your betting success correctly by focusing on bank growth and not just simply relying on POT - profit on turnover (see our article titled How to measure your success as a punter );
Not falling into the trap of repeating your previous mistakes; and
The need to remain consistent and disciplined in your approach whilst maintaining good quality records of your bets that can be used for analytical purposes at a later stage.

We hope you enjoy our articles and more importantly through our help learn the skills to becoming a winning punter.

These 3 measures are material imho and can be achieved using a simple spreadsheet. Together, they have made a significant impact on my recent successes i.e. winning more than I loose and make for a steady = more consistent increase in the bank over a set period

Cheers LG

Excellent article Paul.
Keep them coming please.
Cheers
darky.

Great article.

Its always better to err on a smaller staking size and give up potential profit rather then wipe out your bank.

WHAT IS YOUR REAL WINNING CHANCE ?

Ratings2Win Educational Article


As a punter you need to have a realistic expectation of what each of your bets winning chances are in order to succeed in the long term and stay a winner.

This is because most punters overestimate their likelihood of winning each time they bet regardless of whether the horse is odds-on or a longshot in the betting.

Therefore being able to determine and understand your real winning chance is fundamental.

How do I do it?

The best and simplest way to determine your winning chance is to examine the price of the horse you are backing. If you back a horse at say $3.00 in theory your winning chance is 33.33% assuming that the actual price of the horse is an exact interpretation of its winning chance which it is not (more on this later). The reality though is it's more likely to be somewhere between 30% and 38%.

Previous research into the psychology of betting would suggest that your own expectation is likely to be significantly more that what reality suggests. In fact it is more likely to be at least twice the actual probability of the horses real winning chance.

This expectation of winning becomes even more of a problem the shorter the price (i.e. odds on). The reality is though that the shorter the price the more likely it is that the horse will win closer to what its market price* suggests. In terms of longer priced horses the opposite applies. This phenomena is known as the 'Favourite Long Shot Bias' (FLSB). I have personally conducted thorough research on this subject over a number of years and have found that our market in Australia exhibits and mirrors characteristics of the FLSB.

Note

* Market price is used as the SP (starting price of the horse) in NSW and VIC betting markets and the average of the TABCORP prices for other markets such as QLD, SA and WA. This is mainly due to NSW and VIC being the most competitive and true markets whilst the other states especially QLD often have a SP that is not an accurate assessment of a horses chance (their betting market percentages are too large in comparison).

Key Points:

- Your expectation of winning should be related back to a horses market price;
- Always go into each bet knowing what your expectation of winning really is;
- Don't be scared of taking odds on because of any pre conceived ideas; and
- Remember there are no absolutes to betting except for the certainty of probabilities. Understanding this will make you a better punter.

I will get howled down by those that know better....but here goes anyway.

The 95 -98% that lose do so because they are lazy.
"I don't have the time", " I can't sit in front of a computer", blah blah blah, it's all too hard.
Most of that 95-98% would have fallen asleep halfway through the first post.
It may hold some good pointers but I switched off after a few lines.
At this point in particular...."Don't bet more than you (sic) afford to lose;"
If you go into this venture expecting to lose then I suggest you stop right now.

I write this as someone who today won on 20 of 27 races worked, and who has only had 1 losing day this month. Not bragging, just stating fact.

The first thing you need in this game is.....Discipline. If you don't have it, give up.
The second thing is a numerical ability. If you don't have, give up.
No amount of calculators or spreadsheets will help. By the time you've punched in the numbers, the price has gone.

It beats me how people go into this game thinking they will just win, without working at it. People who run successful businesses are then haphazard with their punting. It's like any other business. The harder you work the luckier you get.

Fully agree


Partially agree. There is always going to be a learning curve in the beginning. Long term you should expect to win.


Your doing really well Mark. I can't boast your numbers. I'm up considerably this month but I have had 3 losing days out of the last 30. I think what you can take out of that is with both have our methods (which are completely different) but they both have an extremely high winning rate and a good profit to go along with it. Its no good having a one without the other.

Or the ability to implement discipline with software. Software can overcome this fault but only if one holds true to the method and doesn't go changing it often.



Horse racing is associated with higher risk so people think that means they will get rich quick.

This one rings true for me like the giant bells on top of Notre Dame.

Once upon a time I would be expecting to double the bank at every opportunity. The losses that followed told me otherwise. 3.2% return on bank per day is more than ample for me these days and if I ever drift into thinking this may not be enough, the dreaded reality of the measly rates one gets on bank deposits brings me back to earth with a thud; >= 3.2% on any given day is a HUGE return in comparison.

Conversely, a running loss of say 3-5% makes it now OK for me to stop for the day. Given the speed with which this can deteriorate into a much bigger loss, a small loss taken and decision to shut shop for the day often feels like a triumph.

68% ahead on the bank over the last 13 betting days indicates that I might just be where the going is good, this time around.

Cheers LG

Hi Mark,

Don't bet more than you (can) afford to lose; is actually a very Sage advice regardless of the grammar slip.

It has nothing to do with positive expectation, that's implied.

Arriving at the track on Saturday with Mondays rent money for instance is really a bad idea regardless of how euphoric you may feel regarding the outcome of your upcoming betting activity.

We are really talking about very similar things, possibly reading the whole article might have helped to established that!

With the exception of the fact that in reality 95-98% of punters are unrealistic, are under-prepared, are ill informed, are lied to, have been feed overinflated expectations and may be time poor. All of which can be corrected, improved and taken into account. That does not mean they are lazy! And certainly does not mean that they can't enjoy success on the punt.

Michal

Hi All

Many good points raised so far in this thread discussion which was exactly what I wanted to see. It would appear that many on this forum have a diverse and unique set of skills which when employed mean that we all approach the art of form and betting differently.

I wanted to elaborate further on a few points raised this far.

UselessBettor commented
I agree totally. Whilst it is true that on face value more risk exists in betting v traditional investment mediums, it is also true that the returns that can be generated from betting eclipse those from traditional investing simply because you can invest more capital frequently punting than you can investing.

Mark has strong views which in the main I agree with although they are a little all or nothing.

In summing up I feel that armed with the necessary tools and knowledge, the things that bring about failure for most punters namely, fundamentally flawed strategy, mistakes associated with execution, self discipline/management etc can all be corrected through sound betting education and understanding. In other words the mindset, level of knowledge and skill required to be a long term winning punter can be learnt.