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-   -   Third up winners ... (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=31286)

Neil 27th October 2016 02:22 AM

Third up winners ...
 
This betting system operates on Saturdays and major public holiday meetings at Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane.

Here are the rules.

1. The horse is third up from a spell of at least 2 months.

2. Its first 2 runs are 12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32.

3. That makes it a bet - for this system ignore 2YO and jumps races.

Winners 22/10/2016

Moonee Valley
Sweet Cherry $4.00

Randwick
Reincarnate $5.00

Eagle Farm
Lord Coconuts $5.50
Bidi Babe $3.60

Sands 12th November 2016 12:09 PM

Qualifiers today

Doomben
R3 Daunting Lass
R6 In His Stride

Sandown
R4 Rock N Gold
R6 Soviet Secret
R10 Silent Sedition

Sands 17th November 2016 08:22 PM

Qualifiers tomorrow

Moonee Valley
R3 Blue Money
R4 Imperial Express
R8 I Taut I Saw
R8 Vatiaz

Sands 16th December 2016 04:00 PM

Qualifiers tonight

Canterbury
R3 Arbeitsam

Moonee Valley
R5 Definia

Sands 5th January 2017 08:32 PM

Qualifiers Saturday - Caulfield

R2 Dance With Fontein
R3 Royal Spinner
R6 Chiavari, Lady Trickster

Sands 3rd April 2017 02:30 PM

Results Sat 1 April

Morphettville
R8 Here To There 1st

Ascot
R1 Victorious Lad 1st

Bendigo
R7 War Legend 2rd
R8 Milwaukee 1st

Randwick
R5 Smart Amelia 3rd
R6 Sircconi 4th
R9 Happy Clapper 2nd

darkydog2002 4th April 2017 03:22 PM

Hi Sands,

Is it in profit since it was first posted?

Cheers
darky

Sands 7th April 2017 02:28 PM

I'm in front but I have not followed this system religiously

kiwiz 15th June 2017 06:02 AM

Data Point looks like a qualifier
R8 Moonee Valley Saturday

demodocus 15th June 2017 11:08 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neil
1. The horse is third up from a spell of at least 2 months.
2. Its first 2 runs are 12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32.
3. That makes it a bet - for this system ignore 2YO and jumps races.


Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)

Lord Greystoke 15th June 2017 08:36 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)


How's about if we swap the 2 and 3 with a 4 or 5 Demodocus?

LG

demodocus 16th June 2017 07:53 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
How's about if we swap the 2 and 3 with a 4 or 5 Demodocus?LG

Wandering into the realms of fantasy.

Here's a quick go using a sample of 288,224 as follows:-

Today's Going = Good
Distance <=1650m.
DSLS <=30
Field 8 - 14
Prev. Races >=4

Taking the SUM of the Last 2 Places to generate a WSR

2 ....... 20.35%
3 ....... 17.40%
4 ....... 16.17
5 ....... 15.28
6 ....... 14.02
7 ....... 13.29
8 ....... 12.40
9 ....... 11.44
10 ..... 10.46

Hence 2PLACE is a fair indicator, but the "flat" spot could be costly.

demodocus 16th June 2017 08:21 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Hence 2PLACE is a fair indicator, but the "flat" spot could be costly.

So, using exactly the same data and conditions I had a look at SUM of last 2 starts Beaten Dist rather than Place.

<=1 ..... 18.63%
2 .......... 16.23
3 .......... 15.31
4 .......... 14.04
5 .......... 13.29
6 .......... 12.92
7 .......... 11.76
8 .......... 10.79
9 .......... 10.11

Time to take Mr Jack to the beach. Have a good day.

SpeedyBen 16th June 2017 01:40 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)

A good lay system then. I'll get my bot to test it on that basis.

El Gordo 19th June 2017 08:47 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)

Why not make it part of an all up or multi. With a bit luck you'll have more reasons to smile.

SpeedyBen 26th June 2017 04:39 PM

Just the facts, Maam
 
Í've been testing this for about a week on all Oz races, including harness, and it has had 13 wins from 56 runners for a LS profit of about 20 units if you stick to those under 12.00.
Above 12.0 there have been 36 straight losses.
All divs are BF, of course.

Sands 16th July 2017 01:18 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites


Quote:
Originally Posted by El Gordo
Why not make it part of an all up or multi. With a bit luck you'll have more reasons to smile.

Good value can be got coupling up horse racing favourites (you may like) into sports events like golf, where those in the market can start at double figures odds.

kiwiz 2nd October 2017 05:23 AM

Happy Clapper,,winner Randwick,,looks like he qualified

kiwiz 2nd October 2017 05:53 AM

Booker,,winner Caulfield,,looks like she qualified

goldeee 3rd March 2018 10:50 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neil
1. The horse is third up from a spell of at least 2 months.

2. Its first 2 runs are 12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32.

Use a similar system with success, but look at last 4 runs before the spell for like pattern "12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32" etc

goldeee 3rd March 2018 12:27 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neil
1. The horse is third up from a spell of at least 2 months.

2. Its first 2 runs are 12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32.

Another variation
I sometimes consider the average beaten lengths (win = 0) from the first 2 runs after a spell, instead of the like pattern "12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32" etc

kiwiz 20th March 2018 06:52 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by goldeee
Another variation
I sometimes consider the average beaten lengths (win = 0) from the first 2 runs after a spell, instead of the like pattern "12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32" etc

Silent Warrior,,winner Morphettville Sat,,may have qualified

goldeee 19th June 2018 09:30 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by goldeee
Another variation
I sometimes consider the average beaten lengths (win = 0) from the first 2 runs after a spell, instead of the like pattern "12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32" etc

Another filter working well at the moment - (third up) in top 3 betting

darkydog2002 20th June 2018 02:27 PM

Good onya Goldee.

Something new coming up at last.

Vortech 20th June 2018 09:19 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by goldeee
Another filter working well at the moment - (third up) in top 3 betting



FYI - Over the last month this has had around 862 bets for 203 winners.
Return of $724.50 or a LOT of around 16%

goldeee 20th June 2018 10:31 PM

Cheers Vortech
I don't wager in every race where the filter is true. Mad if you do imo. I'm more selective, which has been working for me so far.


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