TAB Favourites Plan
 

TAB Favs Plan
Here`s a simple plan for those that are useless at picking winners.

We target all TAB Favs paying $2.80+ at jump time .
If a TAB Fav is paying less than this , no bet that race.
This has a great SR .

The possitive thing about this approach is that we are not targetting consistantly short prices ,which is the killer for most approaches.

We are assuming the Mule we are targeting has had all the form done for us, as reflected in it`s price .
It`s suprising how accurate the market can be.

The approach does show a level stakes profit mainly because we cease betting if 9 outs are struck ,then starting again once a selection gets up.

If we have 9 outs in a row ,recomence from 1 again, once a future winner gets up ,this is done to try & offset a dreaded run of outs of say 26 outs in a row if it were to happen.

Staking
1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,32=85

Have 5 banks of 85= 425 units.
Stop betting if you have 9 outs in a row (rare but it will happen) then recomence betting , once a selection gets up.

If a selection ends up paying less than required , we start from the beginning again & cop the loss ,we will recoup this with any future overs.

The Retirment staking plan should also work with this, targeting 2% with a min divisor of 2 .

If you go over past & future results you will see for yourself.

Bhagwan
Does this mean that I've wasted my whole life studying form?
I checked 4 recent days using only gallops in the four main eastern states and came up with 27 winners from 110 eligible races. The profit starting with a $1 bet was $157. No wipeouts but the 8th bet was reached on 4 occasions.
My guess is that 9 losses in a row would happen about every 110 races on average so that would nett a tidy profit from each sequence.
Nice one !!!

A 14.50% LOT using TAB prices.

Interestingly, where there were 9 outs 99% of the time a winner came in within the next 2 or 3 bets paying more than $3.00.

How about this as a starting point.

>$2.80 on the tote
Last start won or placed
Racing within 7 days

A 3% POT, stake that and you'd have a tidy profit, but not a lot of action.

Bhagwan , Chrome Prince

In the races paying $2.80 +

What % of all races are they?
Could someone tell me the Fav. S/R , Av. Odds, R.O.O
Also same for 2nd , 3rd , 4th Fav.

Tall order I know but could be vital information.

Have a Happy One.

Ray.

Hi Dalray,
The $2.80+ make up approx 50% it will vary day to day.

SR of market order
1st Fav 30%
2nd Fav 15%
3rd Fav 10%
4th Fav 8%

Thanks Bhagwan for your instant reply.

Query-Your saying the fav. S/R (30%) would be the same as any other race, yet the Run Off Outs would have to be higher, due to the price of $2.80 + ?
Where have I gone wrong ?.
Ray.

Hi Jacfin ,
That`s serious results you have there, good to hear.

If one wanted to be more conservative , one could stop betting for the day if the 2 winner gets up for the day with 2 meetings for the day or 10th winner if 10 meetings on the day, ext.

I misunderstood the question.
The $2.80+ selections get up approx 24% of the time.
The expected run of outs for this percentage should be 25.

It may not have occured yet ,but it will when one least expects it, so be prepared for it.
It may happen next month or next year .
Either way ,we will only be on the first 9 out of the 25 outs, hopefully there wont be another run of 25 outs straight afterwards.
That`s why we cease betting after 9 consecetive looses , then start again once one gets up for us .

The majority of the time ,the winner was struck within 8 bets.

so 76% of the time you can lay them,which means better odds.backing favs is dead money.presumption is the mother of all f**k ups.

Staking plan
 

I dont understand this?? can someone please explain