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-   -   Ultimate strategy (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=9391)

moeee 21st May 2005 12:33 AM

Ultimate strategy
 
I downloaded a book called Ultimate Strategy.
I've as yet not read it.
Just thought I'd let ya's know it exists.

efunovasky 21st May 2005 06:45 AM

is it written by gary robinson?

moeee 21st May 2005 10:54 AM

Dunno Buddy
It has something to do with ************** ratings I think.
Been reading,and find it quite informative.

Top Rank 21st May 2005 06:59 PM

I think ultimately you will be disappointed, if it is by Garry Robinson and the book is about times.

It is a rather simple read but I don't believe that it works.

moeee 21st May 2005 10:55 PM

Yes it is by that fella.
But ain't no simple read.About a hundred pages I suppose.
Don't know if it works or not,but there sure is some good information in it.

davez 22nd May 2005 08:53 AM

moeee
 
got a web address there moeee?

punter57 22nd May 2005 12:35 PM

I dont want to be a spoilsport but frankly Ive not seen any ratings method using times or "beaten lengths" or,even weight (!!!) which is anything other than wishful and arbitrary nonsense. Thus any book by Gary Robinson (if there's only one G.R.)has to be a lot of reading for little result. Times dont tell you how the race COULD"VE been run if other tactics were employed by the jockeys (as they may be in Today's race****. Nor do beaten lengths tell you if the horses were "ridden out" etc.Or if the jockey/horse was really trying at all!!! Take a HUMAN example like last years Olympic 5000m final.
El Ghouruj is 1500 champion and world 1500/mile/2000 record holder(and second fastest over 3000/2 miles; Bekele is 10000 champion and world record holder at 5K as well. El Ghouroj is getting older now, moving up and is a 12:48:25 runner (Bekele world record 12:44:30).Every runner in the field (16) is sub 12:56. The race ends with El GHouruj 1st by hundredths of a second to Bekele and the rest many metres back. BUT the time is.......13:15!!!! On time everyone should've beaten 1+2 by 20 to 30 seconds!!!! However it was CLASS that told, no matter the time. Looking backward at this race,in which you can be sure everyone WAS trying ,time is hugely deceptive and margins mean absolutely nothing:many of those athletes would be CLOSER at near world record pace!!
Apply this to horseracing (where many animals are being constantly restrained) and the difficulties multiply. Oh and weight? Is a Kilo Penalty worth more/less if the horse itself weighs 100Kg more/ less? Is a heavier horse (like a heavier man) disadvantaged by longer distances? Is a kilo of lead harder to carry than a kilo of jockey?etc etc.If anyone's got the answers I'd like to know
I await everyone's blistering replies and wish you all good luck this afternoon,
P57

punter57 22nd May 2005 12:36 PM

I dont want to be a spoilsport but frankly I've not seen any ratings method using times or "beaten lengths" or,even weight (!!!) which is anything other than wishful and arbitrary nonsense. Thus any book by Gary Robinson (if there's only one G.R.)has to be a lot of reading for little result. Times dont tell you how the race COULD"VE been run if other tactics were employed by the jockeys (as they may be in Today's race****. Nor do beaten lengths tell you if the horses were "ridden out" etc.Or if the jockey/horse was really trying at all!!! Take a HUMAN example like last years Olympic 5000m final.
El Ghouruj is 1500 champion and world 1500/mile/2000 record holder(and second fastest over 3000/2 miles; Bekele is 10000 champion and world record holder at 5K as well. El Ghouroj is getting older now, moving up and is a 12:48:25 runner (Bekele world record 12:44:30).Every runner in the field (16) is sub 12:56. The race ends with El GHouruj 1st by hundredths of a second to Bekele and the rest many metres back. BUT the time is.......13:15!!!! On time everyone should've beaten 1+2 by 20 to 30 seconds!!!! However it was CLASS that told, no matter the time. Looking backward at this race,in which you can be sure everyone WAS trying ,time is hugely deceptive and margins mean absolutely nothing:many of those athletes would be CLOSER at near world record pace!!
Apply this to horseracing (where many animals are being constantly restrained) and the difficulties multiply. Oh and weight? Is a Kilo Penalty worth more/less if the horse itself weighs 100Kg more/ less? Is a heavier horse (like a heavier man) disadvantaged by longer distances? Is a kilo of lead harder to carry than a kilo of jockey?etc etc.If anyone's got the answers I'd like to know
I await everyone's blistering replies and wish you all good luck this afternoon,
P57

moeee 22nd May 2005 06:32 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by davez
got a web address there moeee?

I believe it to be a commercial site davey,so I won't mention it.
But if I say horse racing australia,plus "garry robinson",maybe you could find it with google.

shoto 22nd May 2005 06:49 PM

I'll spare you the blistering reply, P57 - an interesting post. The big problem with times is pace. As you alluded to, horses don't run the fastest time they possibly could, but most time-based calculations seem to be based on the assumption that they do. This is most clearly demonstrated with times becoming more unreliable the longer the race distance, however the unreliabilty exists even in shorter races. All this before you even consider the rather dodgy (in my opinion) area of calculating track variants, and the difficulty of accurately comparing times run at different tracks.

The question of weight could be argued back and forth forever. It can be demonstrated using physics equations that the change in weight has an effect, independant of the weight of the horse, or of the net weight carried. And at least you have the certaintly that a kilo is always a kilo, not some arbitrarily assigned values that are unavoidable in time-based calcs.

Your post begs the question, and I'd be interested in your reply - on what basis do you determine class?


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