Backing Opening Favorites
 

Here is a simple system for backing the opening favourite (using Betchoice opening prices).

Only consider the Opening Favourite (no equal Favourites).
Aim to collect a certain amount, say $20
Use the opening price to determine your bet, say opens at $3.00
Bet will be 20/3 = $7 (always round up)
If bet loses new Aim will be 20 + 7 = $27
Follow the same process for next race if no winner proceed for a third race which ends the series irrespective if a winner is found or not. Start again next week aiming for $20

If bet wins end series and start again next week aiming for $20.

A winning bet always ends the series irrespective if you do not cover your outlay.

If the next race has equal favourites, ignore race and proceed to the following race to continue process.

Example

1/1/2011 Randwick

Wakanda opening price $2.60 ..aim $20 ..bet $8...loss
Glissade opening price $2.40 ..aim $28 ..bet $12..win $2.50..collect $30.00

Outlay $20
Collect $30
profit $10

Results of Saturday meetings in Melbourne and Sydney since 1/1/2011 are:-

Melbourne (aiming for $20)

149 bets
55 wins
36.9 % S/R
Bank $216.55
13.5% POT

Sydney (aiming for $20)

137 bets
53 wins
38.6 % S/R
Bank $144.05
9.1% POT

I have not looked at other Metropolitan races nor have I looked at Country or Provincial races.

It worked well today at Flemington and Randwick-Kensington.

Flem

R1 Unpretentious Open $1.70.. Aim 20..bet $12 Loss
R2 Maluti............Open $4.00.. Aim 32..bet $8 Loss
R3 Somaly Miss....Open $3.60.. Aim 40..bet $12 Won $4.60

Outlay $32
Collect $55.20
Profit $23.20

Rand-Kens

R1 Toydini...Open $2.50...Aim 20..bet $8 Won $3.30

Outlay$8
Collect $26.40
Profit $18.40

Nice one Try Try Again,

Interesting idea! Keep us posted as to how you progress during the year.

Are your prices based on top totes?

The Schmile

I had a look at this but used the betfair fav, did well in most venues so far.

Thanks The Schmile and Shaun,

Dividend is best of tote or SP.

As I said I haven't looked at it other than on a Saturday meeting in Melbourne or Sydney but it should be okay at other meetings throughout the week.

Your not able to get past results for openers?

Looking at the meetings today the results have been:-

Flem.....Outlay $32..Collect $55.20...Profit $23.20
Kens.....Outlay $8...Collect $26.40...Profit $18.40
Toow....Outlay $18..Collect $40.00...Profit $22.00
Geel......Outlay $8...Collect $18.40...Profit $10.40
Bath.....Outlay $7...Collect $18.90...Profit $11.90
Gawl.....Outlay $25..Collect $37.50...Profit $12.50
Gosf.....Outlay $29..Collect $34.20...Profit $5.20
Pinj......Outlay $29..Collect $0.00....Loss $29.00

Days result

Outlay $156
Collect $230.60
Profit $74.60
POT 47.8%

Dividends for country meetings are best of NSW and SuperTab.

Hi Shaun,

If you go to the Betchoice website and click on Results and then Past Results you can get whichever openers for whatever meeting you want.

I had a look as well using the AAP pre-post prices and IAS Super Price, here is what I found (figures are rounded):

Flemington
Outlay - $6
Collect - $38
Bets - 1

Randwick
Outlay - $7
Collect - $23
Bets - 1

Toowoomba
Outlay - $21
Collect - $48
Bets - 2

Geelong
Outlay - $9
Collect - $20
Bets - 1

Bathurst
Outlay - $26
Collect - $40
Bets - 3

Gawler
Outlay - $25
Collect - $33
Bets - 2

Gosford
Outlay - $23
Collect - $19
Bets 3

Pinjarra
Outlay - $27
Collect - $78
Bets - 3

Total Outlay - $138
Total Collect - $299
Total Profit - $161
S/R - 50%
POT - 116%

Again it is interesting to see results from different pre-post favourites. Providing the liability is limited to a 3 bet sequence this could have some potential, well done Try Try Again.

Hi Mattio,

I think Flemington races would certainly have been 3 bets as Unpretentious (race 1) and Maluti (race 2) were beaten before Somaly Miss won race 3.

This is using the prices on the ************** site which was given another thread as being the AAP prices.

But your results look great, especially as I didn't get a result at Pinjarra and the AAP pre-post had Background as the $3 favourite - and it paid $6.40 as best of NSW & SuperTab - a great result.